Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162353
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
653 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

An upper level ridge sits across the Southern United States with
surface high pressure to the east and a trough of low pressure to
the west. This will lead to southerly winds across western Kansas
through tomorrow. A few storms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado this evening but once again dissipate before reaching the
CWA. However, an increase in cloud cover is possible across far
western Kansas. Lows overnight are progged to only dip into the
upper across west central Kansas to mid 70s across south central
Kansas. Skies become mostly clear by tomorrow morning and continue
throughout the day. The pressure gradient tightens tomorrow
creating breezy conditions across western Kansas. Highs tomorrow
afternoon look to reach around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Summer like conditions continue as an upper level high sprawls out
across the Southern United States with high pressure being the
dominate feature at the surface across the Central Plains through
Sunday. A surface trough will be in place across eastern Colorado
leading to southerly winds across western Kansas through Sunday.
Thunderstorms are expected to form across the higher terrain of
eastern Colorado each afternoon, but models suggest these storms
to dissipate before reaching the KS/CO border. However, a stray
storm can not be ruled out during the evening hours. A cold front
may move through the area Sunday with an increase in thunderstorm
probabilities. This will be watched as this event comes closer to
the present. As for temperatures, highs will reach to around 100
degrees through Saturday with lows in the 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures then cool down into the 80s and 90s Sunday into the
first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019


A few isolated thunderstorms will continue through about sunset,
before. The convective allowing models show any storms along the
KS and OK line dissipating rapidly with the loss of daytime solar
heating. Steady southerly winds with occasional gusts may persist
though the overnight, although no visibility or ceiling
restrictions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 101  76 101 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  71 103  71 102 /   0  10  20   0
EHA  72 100  71 101 /  10  10  20   0
LBL  73 101  72 101 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  74 103  75 101 /   0   0  20   0
P28  76 103  78 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell


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