Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271604
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1004 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Key message over the next 36 hours will be the warm temperatures
ahead of a cold front that will cross southwest Kansas during the
day on Saturday.

CAMS are in good agreement early this Friday morning with warming
the 850mb temperatures between 3-6C from 00z Friday to 00z
Saturday as westerly downslope flow improves. This plus the small
difference in the 25th to 75th percentile in the latest NBM
guidance further supports that the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s with the
coolest afternoon temperatures still occurring where the deeper
snowpack is located ( north of a Dodge City to Garden City line
and west of Hays).

Enjoy these temperatures if you can because a cold front dropping
south across the northern plains tonight is currently forecast by
all the CAMS to cross southwest Kansas during the day on
Saturday. As this cold front passes the gusty north winds behind
this cold front will start to usher in some much colder air to
southwest Kansas late day. Ahead of the front it looks like
another unseasonably warm day with highs in the 40s while behind
this front steady or even falling temperatures can be expected
under cloudy skies. At this time given the generally good
agreement between the near term models on timing and magnitude of
the cold air returning during the day there is a high probability
that locations north of Dodge City will experience early morning
high temperatures followed by falling temperatures through the
day. Confidence is >70 percent that temperatures will be falling
back into the 20s and lower 30s during the day north of Dodge
City. Also wind chills as low as the teens at times late day
Saturday not out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Key message:
-Bitter cold air can be expected late this weekend and early next
 week.
-Wind Chills of -10 to -15 possible Saturday night and Sunday
 night.

Ensemble clusters earlier this morning were very similar to the
past several runs with the location of the upper ridge off the
coast of British Columbia and the west coast of the United States
late this weekend and early next week. This pattern continues to
support the potential for any cold air mass that does invade the
plains to surge south across the Central United States. Taking all
this into account plus the ongoing extreme event potential in
both the MaxT and MinT from the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and
Shift of Tails the previous shifts thoughts on bitter cold
temperatures returning to southwest Kansas late this weekend and
early next week still looks on track.

At this time it appears that the coldest temperatures over the
next 7 days will occur Sunday and Monday given the ensembles 850mb
mean temperature/ECMWF ENS percentile and EFI/SoT. NBM still
seems to have the right idea with highs in the teens and lower 20s
with lows of zero to +10.

Wind Chills will also be an issue Sunday morning and Monday
morning, especially Monday morning, given the gusty winds and low
temperatures of zero to +10F. For Saturday night...NBM has for
several runs forecast wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots across western
Kansas Saturday night and given that the NBM winds typically have
a low wind speed bias so therefore favored/trended towards the
90th percentile on winds Saturday night. This would result in wind
chills of -10 to near -15. On Sunday the winds are not expected
to be as strong but temperatures will be cold enough where even a
10 knot wind would be enough to produce dangerous wind chills (-10
to -15F) north and west of the Dodge City area. These current
wind chills values mentioned both mornings are just outside the
wind chill advisory criteria so at this time will not issue a wind
chill advisory early this Friday morning.

This bitter cold air over western Kansas will begin to erode from
west to east mid to late week as the upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific weakens as it moves east into the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Excellent flying weather will continue this TAF cycle, with
VFR/SKC and light winds 12 kts or less. Through this TAF period,
light winds will trend south this afternoon/evening, westerly
through 12z Sat, and then NWly after 15z Sat. A strong but dry
arctic cold front is expected at the airports just after this
TAF period, with increasing north winds, increasing IFR stratus,
and falling temperatures. Consensus of short term models suggests
widespread IFR/MVFR stratus around 00z Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  37   6 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  47  23  36   4 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  53  27  48   8 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  54  24  49   7 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  24  33   3 /   0   0   0  10
P28  55  29  47  12 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner


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