Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Remaining mid/high clouds across SW KS as of midnight will clear
by sunrise, allowing for decent radiational cooling. With a clear
sky and light winds, patchy radiational fog is possible this
morning, particularly in areas that received light rain last
evening. Indeed, observations from Garden City, Hugoton and
Liberal already show temperature/dew point spreads near saturation
as of midnight. Temperatures at sunrise will be chilly, in the
upper 30s and lower 40s.

Wednesday will be a spectacular spring day. Subsidence will
prevail under shortwave ridging, north of the cyclone in Texas
producing rain to our south. Pressure gradients will be very weak,
with light and variable winds averaging less than 10 mph. With
full sunshine and strong warming at 850 mb, followed the warmer
00z MAV guidance with afternoon max temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s.

Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures tonight will be milder, in
the 40s Thursday morning.

A dry cold front is scheduled to arrive early Thursday morning.
This frontal passage will be accompanied by a wind shift and
strong north winds Thursday, but not much else. With sunshine
continuing and only weak cold air advection noted, temperatures
Thursday will remain in the 70s (lower 70s NW to upper 70s SE).
Did place the stronger MAV guidance into the wind grids, with
north winds of 20-30 mph common with gusts as high as 40 mph. The
strongest winds are expected during the late morning/midday
hours, when forecast soundings show winds of 35-40 mph at the top
of the mixed layer. Winds will weaken rapidly late Thursday in
response to weak high pressure settling into Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Models continue to depict a warm frontal passage early Friday,
with a period of mid level clouds and perhaps some rain showers.
Behind this boundary, Friday will be warm and quite windy. GFS is
particularly impressive with its pressure gradient Friday
afternoon, with 13 mb of mslp gradient across SW KS. South winds
will be strong Friday afternoon/evening, probably stronger than
the grids/forecast suggest. MAV guidance forecasts sustained winds
near 29 mph at Dodge city Friday afternoon, and the strongest
winds should occur right before the boundary layer decouples
Friday evening. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and lower
80s. Saturday morning will be mild courtesy of mixing and a low
level jet.

The next cold front will bring strong north winds on Saturday.
Again north winds of 20-30 mph will be common, from the opposite
direction of Friday`s winds. Little if any cold advection will be
associated with these winds, so still expecting afternoon
temperatures in the 70s (near 70 north, near 80 south).

Surface winds will swing back to the south on Sunday, under zonal
flow aloft. With no forcing through the day, the daylight hours
Sunday are expected to remain dry, with little change in
temperatures, in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Timing varies in the model guidance, but a strong cold front is
expected the beginning of next week. 00z ECMWF drives its intense
cold front through Sunday night, with 850 mb temperatures
crashing to the +1 to +5C range Monday morning. Pops for showers
and thunderstorms with this frontal passage from the model blend
Sunday night were retained. ECMWF shows strong frontogenetic
forcing and a strong QPF signature Sunday evening/night. There
will likely be heavy rain and strong/severe convection in Kansas
late Sunday, but the surging cold front will likely undercut
updrafts making long-lived/high end severe weather difficult to
maintain. Still, this appears to be the next opportunity for
meaningful rainfall for SW KS.

Post frontal cooler airmass will invade Monday, likely colder than
the forecast suggests. ECMWF depicts a 1035mb surface high over
the Dakotas midday Monday, with strong north winds over SW KS.
ECMWF and its bias correction is much colder than other guidance
Monday, with 850 mb temperatures only in the +4 to +7C range.
Monday`s temperatures may be lowered significantly with future

Early next week, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will
generally increase as the synoptic pattern generally becomes more
favorable for convection (SW flow aloft and returning gulf
moisture). An upper low near Los Angeles 7 pm Monday is now
weakened alot by ECMWF to a weak shortwave ejecting through the
region late Tuesday. This, as a much stronger/colder 545 dm closed
low digs into Idaho by Wednesday May 1st. Details are unknown, but
scattered pops for showers and thunderstorms look appropriate
Tuesday. Some severe weather is possible Tuesday, but it will all
depend on frontal/warm sector positioning, impossible to determine
six days away. But more active spring weather is expected to greet
the beginning of May.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into this evening with
mostly clear skies. A cold front will move through by sunrise
tomorrow leading to an increase in cloud cover and a wind shift
to a northerly direction. Wind gusts up to 30 knots will be
possible late morning into the afternoon hours.


DDC  77  47  74  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  77  46  74  45 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  74  49  74  48 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  74  47  75  48 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  77  49  73  46 /   0   0  10   0
P28  75  49  75  46 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.