Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 AM MST Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Northern Arizona will see unsettled weather with
chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms through Tuesday
evening. Improving weather and warmer temperatures return starting


.DISCUSSION...An upper low along the Lower Colorado River will drop
south today and then move east through northern Mexico during the
day on Tuesday. There is marginal cooling and moisture aloft, along
with marginal instability, but the lower levels are quite dry. This
will translate to isolated/scattered convective showers today, with
the best chance over western zones, near the low. As the low moves
east through Tuesday, it will tap into some improved boundary layer
moisture values, as well as deeper mid-level moisture from the east
and shower activity will increase, especially over our southeastern
zones. Expect warming and dry conditions for the rest of the week as
ridging develops.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Winds south to southwest at 10 to
15 MPH, becoming northerly and light in the evening. Scattered
showers showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through
02Z with MVFR/IFR conditions and strong, gusty winds in the vicinity
of these storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
today, mainly over Coconino, northern Yavapai, and southern Apache
Counties. Coverage Tuesday will extend along the Mogollon Rim and
include Navajo, Apache, and northern Gila Counties.

.Wednesday through Friday...For Wednesday, a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms remains near the White Mountain region.
Warming and drying conditions expected for the rest of the week.






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