114
FXUS62 KKEY 131420
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Nocturnal showers collapsed after sunrise over Gulfside waters
this morning, which has led to a mostly sunny morning across the
Florida Keys. Thunderstorms still linger off the western coast of
Florida, and the 12Z balloon suggests the atmosphere remains
primed for showers and thunderstorms later today. The sampled PWAT
was above the 75th percentile for the day, and CIMSS MIMIC-derived
PWAT corroborated the observation with measures of around 2
inches across the Keys. Near surface winds also collapsed early
this morning to light and variable breezes along the reef.
Unfortunately, the lack of sustained winds and deep layers of
moisture indicates conditions outside will be hot and muggy. Dew
points are in the upper 70s across the island chain, and highs are
on track to reach the upper 80s or near 90. Stay hydrated, wear
sunscreen, because the Florida Keys summer is making its mark.

The area of interest for the Keys during the next few days will be
a weak low pressure system currently off the Georgia coastline.
This trough is forecast to slowly move southwestward towards the
Gulf over the next few days, and the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring this low for potential tropical development during the
next seven days. What this means for tonight and tomorrow is that
breezes are expected to remain light and variable outside of
showers. Additionally, the movement of this low and a shift
towards directing a large plume of moisture across the Keys means
shower chances will increase tonight and tomorrow. Did not
touch the forecast, leaving it at 50% PoPs tonight. The Upper Keys
are more likely to see heavy rainfall than the Middle or Lower
Keys in this pattern. Regardless, it is time to plan for rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high
pressure remains in control across much of the Florida Keys
through tonight. This will result in east to southeast breezes
today becoming variable. Weak low pressure tries to develop in
the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the
week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col
region resulting in mainly variable breezes through Monday night.
As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure
builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to
south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late
week. Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms for the early to middle part of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025
VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAF period.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, but the
short duration indicates MVFR conditions would be brief. Winds
will shift from southeasterlies at 5 to 10 knots to variable later
in the day. Expect higher gusts near showers. Shower coverage is
expected to increase late this evening into the overnight hours,
but details on where and when showers would reach the terminals is
unclear, and thus mention of these showers is left out of TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 99F was
recorded at Marathon. This is also tied for the warmest
temperature ever recorded for the month of July, or any month, for
the Marathon area. The daily record warm low temperature of 86F
was also recorded at Marathon in 2023. Temperature records for
Marathon date back to 1950.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....MC

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