Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 271530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1030 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023


Issued at 1030 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023
The 12z sounding at KEY highlighted rising geopotential heights
below 500 mb, as a surface high pressure builds across the
Florida Peninsula in the wake of the cold frontal passage
yesterday. With that said, surface analysis places this now
stationary front draped across the Straits of Florida. This
continues to cause headaches to the forecast process, as shallow
moisture remains in tact below 925 mb. In addition, the meandering
nature of the frontal feature is resulting in bouts of peaks and
lulls in the surface wind field. Currently, winds slightly higher
than initially forecasted, likely indicating a slightly more
displaced position of the frontal feature from the island chain.
With occasional breaks in cloud cover expected through this
afternoon, temperatures should still be able to recover from the
current upper 60s to reach the advertised lower 70s at most island
communities. Due to the Upper Keys being in closer proximity to
the stationary front, elected to carry low- end chance level PoPs
there, with slight levels in the Lower and Middle Keys. No other
changes required to the forecast at this time.


Issued at 1030 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida as
well as the southeastern Gulf of Mexico coastal waters. Small
Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are advertised elsewhere,
which may need to be upgraded to Small Craft Advisories late this
afternoon or this evening. From synopsis, the Florida Keys
coastal waters will remain wedged between a stationary front
draped across the Straits of Florida and high pressure to the
north centered over the Gulf Coast. This will continue to produce
fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east breezes through
much of the weekend. Breezes will begin to slacken by the end of
the weekend as high pressure slides northeastward off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast, and gentle to moderate breezes are expected for
early next week.


(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023
Intermittent periods of MVFR CIGS are expected at both terminals
today and tonight. Have kept the lower CIGS out of the prevailing
category due to lower confidence in timing, and have TEMPOs currently
in place. Other short term amendments may be necessary later today.
North to northeast will pose a crosswind issue, with sustained winds
of 10 to 15 knots expected and occasional to frequent gusts of 20 to
25 knots possible.


On this day in 1905, both the daily record cold high temperature
(56F) and the daily record low temperature (44F) were recorded in
Key West. Temperature records for January date back to 1873.


Key West  71  66  77  68 /  20  30  30  20
Marathon  73  69  78  72 /  20  40  30  20


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for GMZ033-034-



Data Acquisition.....AP

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