Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 192323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

For 00z TAFs...expecting VFR conditions this evening. After
midnight expecting ceilings to lower and also some patchy
MVFR to IFR conditions expected in the 08 to 12z time frame.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

A fairly pleasant aftn underway as a weak ridge of high pres
extends from northeast to southwest acrs the Lower MS Valley.
Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, and modest southeasterly winds
are beginning to bring warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints
back over the area. Temperatures acrs the area are in the lower to
middle 80s, with dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s acrs cntl
LA to the lower and middle 70s south of I-10.

Aloft, recent UA analysis and WV imagery shows high pres over FL
westward acrs the Gulf coast accompanied by drier air, a
progressive northern stream trough crossing the upper Midwest, and
a quasi-rex block over the western US. The subtropical jet
continues to stream over west TX into OK/AR/MO, maintaining the
convective pattern acrs that region.


The ridge aloft will begin to weaken tonight as a shortwave diving
out of Canada digs a trough over the eastern CONUS. Moisture will
begin to deepen over the area, with a few showers possible as
modest low level convergence develops with the approach of a weak
cold front. Overnight lows will be relatively warm, ranging from
the middle 60s north to around 70 south.

The front will cross the area early Saturday, with sctd showers
and a few tstms spreading south along the boundary during the day.
With modest CAPE and weak shear over the region, severe storms are
not anticipated. As the trough aloft deepens over the eastern
CONUS, northwesterly flow will develop aloft, ushering drier air
into the region and driving a 1030 MB high southward acrs the
midwest. This will bring dry and cool weather for Sunday with
aftn highs around 70 degrees along with partly to mostly sunny
skies. Overnight lows Monday night will be some of the coolest so
far this fall with temperatures ranging from the middle 40s acrs
cntl LA to the lower 50s acrs lower SE TX and SW LA.

Flow aloft will transition more zonal on Monday, and rain chcs
will increase as a disturbance moves east over the southern
plains. Meanwhile, an area of low pres is fcst to develop over the
western Gulf along the western end of the old frontal boundary,
and this system could potentially lift northward toward the coast.
While there is still some inconsistency regarding the development
and track of the low, a period of increased rain chcs is expected
through the middle part of the week. Temperatures will remain mild
through the week with lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s and highs in
the 70s.


A light to moderate southeast flow will continue tonight. A weak cold
front will move through the coastal waters Saturday morning, with
winds shifting to the north. Northerly winds will strengthen
Saturday night and Sunday, and Small Craft Advisories will likely
be required. A period of elevated east to northeast winds is
expected through the early part of the week as low pres develops
over the western Gulf of Mexico. This could result in higher than
normal tides and potentially some minor coastal flooding.



AEX  65  71  51  69 /  30  50  10   0
LCH  70  77  58  71 /  20  40  20  10
LFT  70  80  57  72 /  10  50  20   0
BPT  70  78  60  72 /  20  40  20  10




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