Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241215
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
715 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local 88Ds have remained somewhat active overnight as scattered
showers/occasional thunder have lingered under the influence of
troffing aloft...expect another day with good convective coverage
as we get towards max heating, with VCSH mentions starting later
this morning all terminals. Conditions should remain VFR outside
of possible afternoon thunderstorms...for now, have elected to
keep thunder at VCTS while allowing later issuances to try to
better refine where/when storms will occur. Winds should remain
light across the region with a weak gradient in place.

25


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...At the surface the sub-tropical ridge extends from
the Atlantic into the southeast states while weak low pressure is
near the Yucatan. A frontal boundary has also drifted into AR and
MS. To the south of the front and across the gulf to the Yucatan
low, higher surface moisture exists. Aloft, an upper trough is
over the local area and extends across the gulf to the Yucatan.

Through today and Friday rain chances will remain elevated as
moisture continues to run fairly high and there is no ridge in
place aloft. The area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan is
forecast to move north into the gulf... see the latest forecasts
at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Into the weekend, the area of disturbed weather is expected to
move north across the gulf toward the north central or northeast
gulf coast. A slightly drier air mass is expected to move into the
area west of the potential gulf disturbance. This would decrease
rain chances into early next week, however the proximity of the
disturbance causes higher uncertainty, especially for the east
half of the forecast area.

MARINE...Light winds and low seas can be expected into Saturday,
however winds may increase later in the weekend as low pressure
moves north across the gulf. A moderate offshore flow is expected
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  71  90  70 /  50  40  50  30
LCH  89  72  89  72 /  50  30  50  20
LFT  90  74  89  72 /  50  40  60  40
BPT  90  72  90  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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