Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 162103
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
403 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing as expected this
afternoon with the highest overall coverage across central
Louisiana. This convection is diurnally driven with little upper
level support so should be quick to collapse this evening with the
setting sun.

Lower daily rain chances beginning tomorrow through Friday as
surface high pressure and upper level ridging builds across the
gulf from the east and the remnant upper level moisture from Barry
is finally swept northeast by the trof that absorbed the decaying
low. Kept isolated PoPs each afternoon to account for a stray
storm with enough energy to break the cap. Otherwise, seasonal
temperatures will prevail with afternoon highs near 90 and
overnight lows in the upper 70`s.

The next significant weather feature will be the approach of an
inverted upper trof riding underneath the northward retreating
ridge Saturday. The trof will be accompanied by a slug of deep
atmospheric moisture, the combination of which will enhance
precipitation chances Saturday through Monday. Raised PoPs for
this period to the higher end of the blended guidance (which is
somewhat higher than surrounding offices) as guidance is in
relatively good agreement for the time frame.

Late in the period, both the Euro and GFS drop a frontal boundary
through the central U.S. to the gulf coast with the Euro taking
the remnant low into the Florida panhandle as a weak tropical
system. Given the range and the unseasonable nature of such an
event, very little credence is given to either solution beyond day
six.

Jones

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure stretching across Florida and into the
northern Gulf will result in a light to modest onshore flow the
rest of the week and into the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected today, with lower than average  rain
chances for the middle and latter parts of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  91  74  91 /  10  20   0  20
LCH  78  89  77  90 /  10  20   0  10
LFT  76  90  76  91 /  10  20   0  20
BPT  78  89  77  90 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...66


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