Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 180953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
253 AM PDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will allow for very
warm temperatures and dry conditions across northern and central
Nevada through the weekend. Monsoon moisture and the opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...A nearly stationary jet stream will result in a
zonal flow pattern across the region through Friday. Temperatures
in the 90s with dry conditions will continue through Friday.
Afternoon winds from the west and southwest could get breezy at
times Thursday and Friday afternoon but otherwise no strong winds.
A few high clouds will stream over the area but it should be
mostly clear for the most part through Friday.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday. The long term
begins with the weak trough over the west coast and an upper ridge
over the southern United States. On Saturday, model solutions are
depicting slowly increasing heights over the area. This will
result in a pleasant day but warm conditions will persist. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Winds are expected to remain
light for the afternoon. Quiet weather is anticipated through the
weekend, with the upper ridge circulation situating itself over
the Four Corners region. Overnight lows Saturday night will be the
50s, but due to rising heights, afternoon highs on Sunday with be
in the low to upper 90s. We will start seeing increasing mid-level
moisture from the south late Sunday into Monday morning, resulting
in an increase in clouds. Overnight lows Sunday night will again
be the 50s and 60s. Models remain consistent in the possibility of
thunderstorms Monday, most likely main dry storms. The very warm
conditions are expected to continue over much of the area, though
locations in central Nevada where cloud cover is seen, high
temperatures will be slightly less. Readings will be in the mid
80s to upper 90s, with overnight lows in 50s. The upper level
ridge will remain over the Four Corners region Tuesday and
Wednesday with gradual increasing coverage in storms. In addition,
we should begin to see a transition from drier storms to a hybrid
wet-dry to wet storms. Details are limited due to how far we are
looking out at this time but this will need to be watched for
possible fire weather concerns.


.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites for the
next 24 hours. Some afternoon breezes will be possible with gusts
up to 25KT.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KBAM will remain until further notice due
to missing sky conditions from automated WX station.


.FIRE WEATHER...Typical dry summer conditions along with very warm
temperatures will continue over the state for the next several
days. Some wind gusts are expected during the afternoon but
overall winds will not be strong. Relative humidity will remain
low at least through the weekend. Mid-level moisture from the
south increases Monday and especially Tuesday as the large scale
weather pattern changes. This could introduce a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms into the forecast beginning on Tuesday.




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