Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 302132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
132 PM PST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Drier conditions look to return with the full exit of
this recent system, but with it comes temperatures well below the
normal that look to hold on for today and Tuesday. Warmer
conditions look to follow for the mid-week with potential for more
activity next weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

Latest satellite imagery is seeing the last of the cloud coverage
move out of the southern half of the region. Clear skies and dry
weather will look to hold for the remainder of today and Tuesday
as model agreement expects a ridge to build in and hold for most
of the week. With the initial build up of the ridge, expect strong
northerly flow to overtake the synoptic pattern and aid in
bringing cold arctic air to the region. Temperatures are expected
to plummet well below the normal with afternoon highs today in the
teens and mid 20s. Overnight lows are even worse off with
locations looking to drop into single and double digit negative
numbers. In some of our coldest places, like Wild Horse Reservoir,
temperatures below negative 20 are likely for tonight and Tuesday
morning. As it stands, these cold temperatures could prove
dangerous for those that are unprepared or not protected, with any
present winds expected to worsen these conditions. Currently, a
Wind Chill Advisory is set to start in White Pine County at 10 pm
tonight where a combination of both winds and temperature could
make locations feel like they are in the negative 20s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

Weak high pressure pushing in from the west will keep the region
dry through Thursday while temperatures continue to trend warmer,
though still remain below normal. A trough will likely arrive in
the area late Thursday breaking down the high pressure. The trough
will then likely pass across the northern portions of Nevada for
Friday. The amount of moisture associated with the trough are
fairly low and should result in increased cloud cover. A few areas
in northern NV could see some isolated showers with this system
but no significant precipitation is expected owing to the lack of
moisture. The warming trend will likely end with the passage of
the trough leaving the temperatures fairly static for the weekend.

Later for Sunday the weakened high pressure will allow a more
substantial winter system to pass through the West. This system is
most likely to pass through NV starting Sunday morning peaking
during Sunday afternoon to evening before departing Monday
morning. The moisture amounts associated with the system are still
hard to pin down but overall this system is likely to produce
showers across northern and central NV. So overall it looks
increasingly likely that NV will have a wet start for next week.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions for all terminals for the next 24
hours. There is gusty winds in central NV with gusts in the 20s
mph range for KTPH that will last into the overnight before
weakening. These same winds will cause low level turbulence in
central NV. During the overnight the winds could decouple from the
surface and become low level shear instead of surface gusting.

AMD NOT SKED have been appended to the following TAF sites with
the following reasons: KELY visibility is unavailable, KWMC ADAS
communications error causing missing observation, KTPH
temperature/ dewpoint and visibility are unavailable.


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Tuesday
White Pine County.



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