Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232351
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.AVIATION...
The cold front has moved into northwest Arkansas. South winds
continue ahead of the front. Expect the front to make slow
progression eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread
to the east. VFR and MVFR conditions are expected through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019)
Short Term...Tonight thru Thursday...
Not a whole lot of changes in the forecast from the previous
package. Upper level low and associated trof is located over nwrn
Mexico / swrn US, with a southwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas. The
upper trof will advance slowly into TX tomorrow, and will move over
Arkansas on Thursday. Thru tomorrow, several minor impulses will
likely eject out of the main shortwave.

At the surface, a southerly flow will continue, until a nearly
stationary front to the west starts to advance with the upper trof.
The models have some of their usual differences with the timing of
the front, but it should start to push into nwrn AR Wednesday night,
and make its way across the rest of Arkansas on Thursday.

With adequate moisture in place across the region, and increasing
instability, any minor shortwaves moving thru the area thru tomorrow
may kick off some showers and thunderstorms, especially across the
northwestern half of the state. As the trof and upper low approaches
by tomorrow night, thunderstorm chances will increase significantly
for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Long Term...Thursday Night thru Tuesday...
H500 trough and surface front will be making their way east of
the state at the beginning of the long term portion of the
forecast. Rainfall will be coming to an end with only some
lingering chances across eastern Arkansas. High pressure will
briefly build in over the area at the surface.

Beyond that, the pattern will become a bit northwesterly into the
weekend which will help usher in another shortwave trough across the
middle of the country. Another cold front is expected to move into
the state at the surface with southerly winds increasing ahead of
it. Some precip chances will be in place Saturday into Sunday, but a
weekend washout is not anticipated.

Temperatures through the period could occasionally be impacted by
clouds and precip locally, but overall slightly above normal
temperatures are expected.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51


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