Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 302348
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
548 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

A winter weather event is under way across the forecast area, with a
wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain being reported across
portions of northern Arkansas this afternoon. At this time, a winter
weather storm warning is in effect across northern Arkansas through
tonight, with potential for more than one-half inch of sleet
accumulation.

SW flow above the boundary layer continues to transport moisture
across the region, lifting over much colder air near the surface,
due to NNE flow. Two separate periods of precipitation will
develop and move across the state. The first has already started,
and will continue through Tuesday morning. We will have a brief
break in the precipitation Tuesday morning. The next period of
precipitation will begin to spread across the state by late Tues
morning/early afternoon, and will continue through the period.

The SW flow in the 1-3km range will bring temperatures above
freezing, allowing for some melting of frozen precipitation, which
will allow for a mix of rain, freezing rain, snow, and sleet over
portions of the state, as some of the melted precipitation
refreezing after falling through the surface-based below-freezing
layer. Northern AR will have greater chances for snow/sleet. Central
AR will have greater chances for a mix of rain/freezing rain.
Southern AR will have greater chances for mostly rain, with some
periods of freezing rain possible. Any accumulation of this winter
mix may cause potential for isolated dangerous travel conditions, so
a winter weather advisory has been issued across the CWA, through
Wednesday morning.

The area at greatest risk for freezing rain (western, central, and
eastern AR) has potential for one-quarter to one-half inch of ice
accumulation, which makes for a potentially dangerous situation,
with travel impacts and possible power outages. Therefore, these
areas are under an ice storm warning through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon high temperatures are forecast in the mid to
upper 30s, which will allow for some melting of any remaining
accumulated frozen precipitation. That warming trend will continue
moving into the long term portion of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

The long-term forecast begins Wednesday night with a slight chance
of some light wintry mix across north-central and northeastern
Arkansas; however, this precipitation will be extremely light and
essentially not a significant hazard. Rain will be the dominant
precipitation type across the state and continue into early Friday
morning eventually ending from northwest to southeast across the
CWA. The rain will be resultant from the tandem of a stationary
boundary south of the CWA and an approaching positively-tilted trof
axis.

Temperatures will begin to rebound from hovering near freezing from
earlier in the week to topping out on Thursday afternoon in the low
40`s statewide which will assist in melting any precipitation that
has frozen onto surfaces and remains as well as keeping any
additional ice accretion from occurring. As far as temperatures are
considered this trend of slightly warmer high and low temperatures
will continue through next Monday where high temperatures will be in
the low to upper 50`s statewide. Before our next opportunity for
rain which arrives early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

SN/PL was observed over Nrn sites this afternoon and expected to
continue through 04z/05z. SHRA/RA is expected across the remainder
of the terminals, winding down before dawn on Tues. Another round
of mixed precip is expected to overspread the state from SW to NE
during the day Tues. A mix of SN/PL is expected N, with mainly FZRA
over Cntrl sites, to mainly RA near KLLQ. This activity will
continue through the end of the TAF period. CIGs will remain low
end MVFR/IFR through the period. Winds will be Nrly at around 10
10 to 15 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     25  30  26  36 /  70  70  30  20
Camden AR         31  36  29  38 /  60  80  70  70
Harrison AR       20  24  22  35 /  70  50  10  10
Hot Springs AR    29  34  28  38 /  70  90  70  60
Little Rock   AR  29  35  29  38 /  80  90  70  50
Monticello AR     32  35  30  38 /  60  80  70  70
Mount Ida AR      28  34  28  39 /  70  90  60  60
Mountain Home AR  21  26  23  36 /  70  50  10  10
Newport AR        26  29  27  34 /  70  70  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     29  33  29  37 /  60  80  60  70
Russellville AR   28  31  28  37 /  60  70  30  30
Searcy AR         26  31  27  35 /  80  80  50  40
Stuttgart AR      29  31  29  35 /  80  80  60  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ004>006-
103-112-113-203-212-213-313.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Wednesday for ARZ004>006-103-112-113-203-212-213-313.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ARZ007-008-
014>017-052-053-065>069-121-122-130-138-221>223-230.

Ice Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ARZ024-025-
031>034-039-042>047-054>057-062>064-123-137-140-141-237-238-240-
241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....233
AVIATION...70


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