Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271732
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1232 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Gloomy start to the day across South Florida as lingering
moisture aloft prevents complete clearing behind yesterday`s
frontal passage. A few weak showers are hanging around as well
although these are very weak and mainly situated over the
Everglades, so will likely go unnoticed by most. A bit cooler this
morning as well, with current temperatures hovering in the low-mid
50s across the area. We will warm up into the upper 60s and
potentially low 70s later this afternoon, and tomorrow morning
will be a bit warmer with much of the area remaining above 60
degrees overnight. No significant changes with this update as the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

A seasonably cool northerly wind has settled across South
Florida in the wake of the cold front which passed through the
area yesterday and currently over the Straits of Florida.
Plenty of moisture just above the surface is streaming NE
across South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico, causing mostly
cloudy skies along with a few light showers across a good
portion of our area early this morning. Expect this overall
pattern to remain in place today as the shallow cold air
advection is overrun by low/mid-level moisture associated with
weak 700-500 mb disturbances moving across the region. Light
precipitation will be possible, but amounts are expected to be
very light.

Surface high pressure over the SE U.S. will slide east tonight
while the front stalls over the lower Straits.  Surface winds
are expected to become NE late tonight and Saturday, and lead to
a few showers moving onshore the east coast metro areas mainly
south of West Palm Beach. High-res model guidance is a bit
aggressive in increasing PoPs over the east coast metro,
suggesting as high as 40%. For now, we’re keeping PoPs generally
in the 20% range tonight and Saturday, but some upward adjustments
to rain chances may be required if the trends in the high-res
models continue. The high-res guidance is also indicating upper-end
rain amounts exceeding 0.25-0.50” in a few spots over the east
coast metro, which is certainly plausible in this type of pattern.
Western sections and areas around Lake Okeechobee should stay
mainly dry except for the potential of a couple of showers making
it across the peninsula to Collier County on Saturday as the NE
low level flow strengthens. It will be breezy, especially on
Saturday.

After a cool morning with lows in the 50s and 60s, clouds and
continued cold-air advection will keep temperatures a few degrees
below normal today. Highs should remain in the 60s from the Lake
Okeechobee area to most of the interior and Gulf coast, and reach
the lower to mid 70s over the east coast metro. The cold-air
advection will end after today as low level winds become NE.
Thus, lows tonight/early Saturday AM should be about 5 degrees
warmer than this morning, and highs on Saturday reaching the
mid-upper 70s, possibly near 80 over western interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

The warming trend which begins on Saturday will continue through
the rest of the upcoming weekend and for most of next week as the
surface high pressure progresses eastward over the Atlantic and
our wind flow becomes E and eventually SE. The remnants of the front
over the Straits of Florida may move back north across our region
Saturday night and Sunday, continuing the chances for showers
primarily along the east coast metro areas. By Monday, a strong
mid-level high pressure area sets up from the central/southern
Bahamas and Greater Antilles north to Florida, characterized by
500 mb heights in the 588-590 dm range which is as much as two
standard deviations above normal. This high is forecast by the
global model consensus to remain in place for most of next week,
resulting in a mainly dry and warm next week. Average temperatures
should be around 7-10 degrees above normal, resulting in highs in
the 80s area-wide...and perhaps even approaching 90F in a few of
the typical warm spots of the deep interior peninsula each
afternoon from Monday through Thursday. Lows each morning are
expected to be in the 60s, with lower 70s along the east coast.
These temperatures resemble average readings for April rather than
the end of January and beginning of February.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Prevailing VFR conditions through the period with northerly flow
veering more northeasterly by tonight. Chance for some isolated
showers during the morning hours nearing east coast sites
although confidence is too low to mention at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

N-NE winds will be in the 15-20 knot range today with seas as high as
6 feet, continuing the Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters,
and initiating advisories for the Atlantic waters. Marine
conditions are expected to remain hazardous through the weekend as
winds stay in the 15-20 knots range out of the NE-E. As the high
pressure moves farther east over the Atlantic on Monday, winds and
seas should finally begin to subside from Monday through most of
next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 323 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

The rip current risk will likely remain high along all Atlantic beaches
through the weekend due to the breezy N to eventually NE-E winds.
Lingering wave energy from the Gulf will result in a moderate risk
of rip currents at the Collier County beaches today, then decreasing
over the weekend as winds become offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            64  76  71  80 /  10  10  10  20
West Kendall     60  78  68  82 /  10  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        62  78  69  81 /  10  10  10  20
Homestead        62  78  69  80 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  64  76  71  80 /  10  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  63  76  71  80 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   61  77  69  81 /  10  10  10  20
West Palm Beach  61  75  68  80 /  10  10  10  20
Boca Raton       62  76  69  81 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           56  80  66  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....Molleda
AVIATION...Rizzuto


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