Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 302222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Key Messages:

1) Bitter cold again tonight with low wind chills on the plains.

2) Snow will continue along the Continental Divide tonight
and Tuesday, some light accumulations possible, especially
over the San Juans.

3) Warmer along and east of the mountains Tuesday, though max
temps at most spots will stay below freezing one more day.

Currently, shallow cold air remains in place on the plains, though
western edge of stratus deck has broken up over El Paso/Fremont
Counties. Temps in general have held in the single digits over
the plains, with warmer readings back over the higher terrain. Still
some snow showers back toward the Continental Divide and over the
peaks of the Sangres, with breezy to windy conditions in the San
Luis and Upper Arkansas Valleys. For tonight, snow persists along
the Continental Divide, with a slight chance of a brief snow band
streaking eastward across Teller County/Palmer Divide this evening.
Lower clouds and perhaps some light fog will persist east of I-25
through the night, while wrn edge of the cloud deck comes and goes
along the Interstate and eastern mountain slopes, before beginning
to retreat westward early Tuesday morning as light downslope flows
develop. Kept the wind chill advisory in place given cold forecast
lows and modest wind speeds, with minus 15f chills at many locations

On Tuesday, cold air begins its slow retreat across the plains, with
stratus finally dissipating at most locations by afternoon. Won`t be
a heat wave as snow cover and light winds hold readings back some,
though at least 20s are forecast for maxes along and east of the
mountains. Still some snow showers along the Continental Divide,
with some additional accumulations in the eastern San Juans through
the day, and lighter snows farther north in the central mountains,
just a few flurries/snow showers over the Sangres.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Key Messages:

1) Things warm up and dry out this week into the weekend.

An upper low will swing by far to our southwest Tuesday night,
digging down into Mexico Weds-Thurs. Snow showers over our southwest
mountains will wane near the beginning of the period, giving us one
last dusting before things dry out. Upper-level ridging will build
in over the region for the second half of the work week, leading to
warming temperatures and dry conditons across our forecast area.
Wednesday and Thursday will see afternoon high temps in the 40s to
near-50, and by Friday-Saturday mid-high 50s will be possible over
the eastern plains. Some of the long-term guidance hints at a
passing shortwave Saturday morning, which could give us some light
snow showers over parts of the Continental Divide. At the near-end
of the long term period, models hint at a new upper low making its
way in from the Pacific Northwest, but details are still being
resolved. Will have to keep an eye out for the low-end chance of
spotty critical fire weather conditions as things dry out, but
currently winds under the ridge look far too light for any concerns.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 244 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

At KCOS and KPUB, IFR stratus has lifted with VFR cigs as of
22z at KCOS, while KPUB has held onto an MVFR cig, though occasional
flurries have just about ended. Still a a low risk of a convective
snow shower at KCOS into this evening, though model trends this
afternoon have been toward less in the way of activity. Suspect MVFR
cigs/vis may redevelop back westward for few hours this evening as
se surface wind slowly dies off, with local web cams and obs
showing rather hazy conditions across the area. After midnight,
upslope winds switch to light downslope/drainage flows, so expect an
improvement to VFR conditions at both sites by Tuesday morning.
Stronger push of dry air and n-nw winds should then finally flush
out most stratus after 12z Tue, with VFR conditions through the day.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hours with gusty southwest winds
diminishing this evening. Less wind expected on Tue.


Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ084-085-089-095>098.



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