Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 upper level low is currently spinning over northern
Mexico with a weak disturbance over southern Colorado.  Radar
indicates light rainfall down near the New Mexico border.  Winds
across the plains are generally light and variable.  Easterly
upslope flow is confined to areas along the New Mexico border.
Temperatures have warmed this afternoon into the 50s to lower 60s
across much of the region, while areas to the south have remained in
the 40s to lower 50s.

Tonight...expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue to
shift south into New Mexico and dissipate through the evening hours.
Rainfall will remain light with QPF amounts of up to a tenth of an
inch possible.  Higher up, snow will continue through this evening
before coming to an end around midnight.  Snow levels will remain
high, generally above 9 to 10 kft where an inch or two of additional
accumulation will be possible.  Locations over the southern Sangre
de Cristo range will likely see the highest amounts into this
evening.  Once we move past midnight, upper level ridging from the
north will sag south across Colorado bringing drier air to the
region.  This should allow skies to clear heading into Wednesday
morning.  Temperatures tonight will be cool, with 30s to 40s across
the region.

Wednesday...high pressure will fold across Colorado throughout the
day with weak energy drifting across the mountains by late
afternoon.  For the most part, expect dry conditions through much of
the day.  Models indicate isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon, mainly from the La
Garita mountains, north into the Central mountains.  Snow levels
will rise, with an inch or two possible above 11 kft.  Areas that
see more convective storms may see a brief period of heavier
snowfall, but these will be rather localized areas.  Temperatures
are forecast to warm across the region with 70s expected across the
plains by the afternoon. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Cold front drops south through the plains Wednesday night,
bringing post frontal upslope flow to areas along and east of the
mountains during the day on Thu. By late Thu afternoon, modest
amount of instability (CAPE 400-800 J/KG) develops over the
mountains and I-25 corridor, with weak upward motion over much of
the region as upslope and minor wave passing by to the north
combine to create lift. Should see an upturn in thunderstorm
chances across most of the area Thu afternoon/evening, with best
coverage of precip over the eastern mountains and along the Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa. Instability decreases east of I-25 across
the plains, so would expect convection to slowly diminish as it
moves away from the mountains. Could see a stronger storm or two
as 0-6km shear increases into the 40-50 kt range, though limited
instability and only weak upward motion should limit the severe
threat. Front will put a temporary halt to the warming trend at
most locations, as max temps will be near to slightly cooler than
Wed numbers.

Westerly flow deepens on Fri, shoving best low level moisture into
KS by afternoon. Still a threat of some high-based convection over
the region given steep lapse rates and weak upper energy racing
across, with weak/windy storms and virga more likely than
anything. Switch to wly flow will boost max temps area-wide, with
70s/80s at many lower elevation locations. Cold front then sweeps
through on Sat, though dry post frontal air mass should limit
thunderstorm chances to just the higher peaks of the ern
mountains. Temps Sat cool slightly, then bounce back on Sunday as
flow becomes more w-sw once again. Still only a low threat of some
very isolated mountain convection Sun afternoon, as air mass
remains relatively dry. Upper low off the srn CA coast begins to
move onshore early next week, eventually tracking over/near CO
late Mon/Tue. Still some details to work out, but overall expect
temps to cool and precip chances to increase, especially Tue, as
system moves through the state.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

High pressure building across the region will lead to VFR and dry
conditions at the three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) over the
next 24 hours. Winds will remain out of the north at the three
sites, and around/less than 10 knots through the period. VFR CIGs
may briefly develop across the region early tomorrow evening.




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