Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 210746
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper level low will move slowly east across the middle
Atlantic states through this evening. This will be followed by
surface high pressure that will expand across the southeastern US,
through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...
Upper level low will begin to  fill as it wobbles slowly ESE across
the central and southern mid-Atlantic states today before
finally moving offshore tonight/early Monday. Currently, shower
activity across the area has died down but expect to see a near
repeat of what we saw yesterday where tempered daytime heating in
concert with the cold temps aloft will result in the development of
isolated to scattered instability showers, this time primarily
focused along and east of the I-95 95 corridor. The bulk of the
shower activity will dissipate with loss of heating with any
lingering shower activity shifting east out of the area shortly
after midnight as the upper low moves offshore. Today will be the
last day of cool-below normal temperatures. Under varying degrees of
cloudiness, highs in the lower to mid 60s. Drier air advecting into
the area in the wake of the exiting low pressure system will lead to
SW to NE clearing during the afternoon and through the overnight
hours. Lows in the mid 40s to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...
Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the area on Monday in the
wake of the low pressure system tracking up the mid-Atlantic and New
England coasts. At the surface, weak high pressure will
briefly build across the area Monday and Monday night before
shifting off the SE US coast on Tuesday. This will make for a
picturesque spring day across central NC; under wall-to-wall
sunshine and very comfortable/low humidity levels, afternoon
temps with top out in the lower to mid 70s. Lows Monday night
in the upper 40s to lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...

Surface high pressure will slowly slide offshore on Tuesday,
allowing a gradual warming and moistening trend to take hold across
central North Carolina. Warming low to mid level atmospheric levels
will result in 850mb temps in the 14 to 16 degree C range, which
will allow for summer-like low-level thicknesses values to stick
around through the middle of the week. Thus, have allowed highs to
venture into the low to mid 80s both Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday afternoons, with slightly cooler temperatures arriving late
in the week thanks to a now slightly more progressive cold frontal
passage Wednesday night into Thursday. The front is now progged to
drop southeast in backdoor-type fashion, introducing a few
clouds/showers across the northern portions of the CWA pre-dawn
Thursday. This front will stall shortly across central NC before
returning north as a warm front Thursday helping to provide some
lift for shower/storm coverage near the NC/VA border. To our west,
an aggravated southern stream wave will continue pushing east
through the deep south, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
Thursday night and Friday. Drier and more seasonable conditions
arriving behind the front next weekend, with POPs likely to remain
low through at least Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period:
An upper level low will rotate slowly SE across the Virginias and NC
through tonight. Isolated shower activity overnight and this morning
is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon/early evening,
mainly across the northeastern terminals(KRWI and possibly KRWI).
Ceilings overnight and into the mid/late morning hours will vary
between MVFR/low-end VFR cigs (mainly 2000-4000 ft), with any sub-
VFR ceilings lifting to VFR by 18z. Drier air advecting into the
area on the back-side of the exiting low pressure system will result
in clearing from SW to NE late this afternoon and overnight.

Looking ahead: Weak surface high pressure across the area will
secure dry VFR conditions through Tuesday night. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated sub-VFR
conditions could accompany a backdoor cold front that could
potentially stall INVOF of central NC late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...CBL


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