Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 090659
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will linger over the region through Monday as
high pressure builds aloft. The high pressure aloft will weaken over
the Carolinas by mid-week, allowing a new surface trough to develop
to focus showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 243 AM Sunday...

Isolated thunderstorms continue at this late hour over the Sandhills
(western Moore County) and just east of Roanoke VA. These storms
appear to be using up the left over instability from the heat of the
day. The support for additional thunderstorms today appears to be
less than in previous days. Heights are high aloft with ridging
extending across the southern U.S.. However, a subtle weakness in
the ridge is all it takes to activate at least widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms with MLCapes reaching near 2000 J/kg during
peak heating. In addition, there will be a continued weak surface
trough over central NC to aid in weak convergence to aid lift. We
will maintain isolated storm chances for a few more hours in the
Sandhills; otherwise areas of stratus/fog will give way to plenty of
sun this morning through the afternoon. 20-40 percent POP for PM
thunderstorms from NW to SE. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Mostly clear overnight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 AM Sunday...

Little change is expected in the pattern Monday and Monday night. We
will maintain low chance POP for widely scattered to scattered PM
thunderstorms. Models depict subtle weaknesses in otherwise ridging
aloft which could support higher POP in later forecasts. For now, 20-
30 POP and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s again. Lows Monday
night 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 258 AM Sunday...

Increasing chances of thunderstorms appear on the horizon this week.
The chances will be on the increase due to an expected weakness in
the upper ridge from the Ohio Valley ESE across the mid-Atlantic
states mid to late week. The hot ridge will extend across the
southern third of the country, with the westerlies tracking well to
the north near the Canadian/US border. The main cold frontal waves
will track from the Ohio Valley ESE through the northern mid-
Atlantic states, with a well defined Appalachian surface lee trough
expected from VA into NC. Therefore, rather high POP will be
forecast for mid-summer with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
expected Tue through next weekend. The highest chances will be
during the afternoon and evening hours, with some activity lingering
overnight. Remember that thunderstorms will drop very heavy rainfall
for some locals, while others miss out. Yet, chances will be high
that everyone will see at least some rainfall this week. Otherwise,
typically hot and humid conditions with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Areas of IFR stratus and fog through 13z or so, then generally VFR
today. Widely scattered PM thunderstorms with MVFR conditions.

Looking beyond 06Z Monday: More isolated to scattered storms are
expected each afternoon and evening, with increasing chances through
the week. In addition, late night and early morning IFR to LIFR
stratus and fog may also develop.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett


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