Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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367
FXUS62 KRAH 190111
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will remain over the Piedmont into mid-week. A
cold front will approach Thursday and Friday from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Sunday...

With no triggers, no shower or storm action remains this evening.
The isolated thunderstorms over the far western Piedmont have died
out. Dew points are up into the lower to mid 70s making it feel more
uncomfortable given the temperatures in the 80s this evening.
Without triggers or a good low level focus, we will nil the POP for
the rest of the night. Mostly clear, warm, and humid conditions
expected. Late night stratus and fog will be possible. Lows in the
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Sunday...

For Monday, an upper level trough will move into the Appalachians
and sharpen up as it does so. This will increase vorticity aloft. At
the surface this will also sharpen up the Piedmont trough and low
level southerly advection will bring increased moisture transport
out of the Gulf of Mexico and the southwestern Atlantic. There will
still be very little shear to work with and the best dynamics in the
west wont quite line up with the best instability in the east.
Therefore, SPC has maintained simply an area of general thunder
covering the entire state. Certainly convective coverage will be
more than this afternoon but the severity of it is likely to be
minimal. Highs once again in the low to mid 90s and lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

North Carolina will be sandwiched between two areas of high pressure
aloft, with a weak trough over the region. A series of shortwaves
traversing the upper level trough almost every day could help
enhance chances for convection. Otherwise, expect the usual diurnal
pattern of convection with peaks during the aft/eve and a lull
overnight. A cold front could slide southward into the area late in
the week, however the southward extent is somewhat in question,
which would result in varying temperature and precipitation
forecasts. The GFS is more aggressive bringing the front into
northern portions of the area while the ECMWF keeps it and the
cooler air to the north over VA. As a result the temperature
forecast for the weekend is fairly uncertain. Temperatures will
remain fairly consistent through Friday, with highs in the low 90s
and lows in the low to mid 70s. For Friday through Sunday
temperatures will depend on the potential fropa, but with that on
the horizon have shown a bit of a decrease in temperatures during
that period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Any very isolated convection from earlier today
has dissipated this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Expect
dry conditions to continue overnight, with a smaller threat of any
fog and/or low stratus tonight. The best chance of any brief sub-VFR
cigs/visbys are expected to be across eastern portions of central
NC. If any sub-VFR conditions develop, expect VFR conditions would
return by around 12Z or so.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop on
Monday afternoon as a weak mid level disturbance approaches the area.
Gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any storm
that affects a given location. Thus, have included a prob30 group
for thunderstorms in the TAF for Monday afternoon.

Long Term: A weak cold front/surface trough will move into the area
on Tuesday. This will lead to more coverage of diurnal convection.
For Thursday, uncertainty remains in how far south a cold front will
come but looks like at this time central NC will remain on the warm
side of this feature through Thursday evening keeping convection and
periods of adverse aviation conditions in the forecast through the
end of the period.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
GSO upper air flights have been scheduled through 12Z Tuesday,
including 00Z flights this evening and Monday evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD/Ellis
EQUIPMENT...RAH



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