Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271725
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...Increasing clouds, slightly warmer, and breezy conditions
through tonight...

Shortwave troughing and fast mid/upper level flow moving through
the central rockies will result in pressure falls east of the
Rocky Mountains, and a tightening surface pressure gradient in our
area. Due to this tightening gradient, our winds will increase
and become gusty out of the south/southwest. In addition,
mid/upper level clouds will increase as a subtropical moisture
streams over the area from the west/southwest. Although clouds
will generally increase, temperatures should still be a few
degrees warmer overall with highs in the upper 50s to around 60.
With winds remaining breezy through tonight, lows will be warmer
as well, dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s, as opposed to
the freezing temperatures we`ve seen the last few nights. Clouds
will continue to increase overnight, especially after midnight as
low clouds develop across the southern half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...Much colder and with the potential for freezing precipitation
next week...

Saturday will see the last of the warming trend, with breezy
south winds bringing warmer, low level moist air from the Gulf and
Northern Mexico. Low level stratus will break up late morning,
but scattered high clouds will continue in the afternoon.

A strong cold front moves in early Sunday morning, bringing much
colder air, and a slight chance of showers along and south of a
Mertzon...San Angelo...Brownwood line. While skies clear by Sunday
afternoon, the weather situation become more messy the rest of
the week. An upper trough developing in the West next week will
bring lift of moist air over the cold air at the surface. The cold
air then continues to be reinforced through midweek. While there
is a chance of rain Monday into Thursday, freezing rain is
possible Monday morning in the Big Country, with the freezing
potential extending farther south into the Concho Valley Monday
night into Tuesday, and once again Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. There is also a slight potential for snow Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, mainly in the western and northern Big
Country...as the upper trough moves over.

The main trends for the system next week have been the colder air
mass and increasing chances for precipitation. That said,
precipitation amounts look to be on the light side of a few
hundredths of an inch, except perhaps Wednesday where areas may
see 1/10 to 2/10 inch. However, even light amounts of freezing
rain could make travel conditions hazardous. That said, any
changes to the timing and or location of upper trough could cause
precipitation amounts increase or dissipate altogether. Cool but
drier air moves in Friday, at least with the current computer
models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Gusty southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will decrease early this
evening. Expect winds at KABI to increase to 12 to 16 knots by mid
to late evening. Stratus will overspread the area Saturday
morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings. Ceilings will gradually
improve by late morning or early afternoon. Expect south to
southwest winds to increase to 12 to 18 knots by late morning
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  42  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  59  41  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    60  40  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   61  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  58  42  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       57  41  63  44 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       59  41  66  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...Daniels


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