Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 271733
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1233 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

No major changes to the forecast were required. A 1029-mb bubble
of surface high pressure overhead will make for continued cool and
dry conditions with some cirrus clouds streaming from southwest
to northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Surface high pressure over the Southeast CONUS will continue to push
eastward through the near term period with winds becoming easterly
but remaining light tonight. High temperatures today are forecast in
the mid 50s to near 60 across the region under sunny skies. With
clear skies and light to calm winds overnight, radiational cooling
will allow low temperatures to drop into the low 30s across the
area, with mid 30s right near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

A pleasant day is in store on Saturday with increasing high clouds
and dry weather. Highs will be mainly in the 60s, which is near
average. With warm air advection and increasing deep layer moisture
on Saturday Night, temperatures will slowly increase through the 40s
and 50s.

A wave of low pressure will send a warm front toward the region on
Sunday and Sunday Night, but it will not make it much further north
than the I-10 corridor. A sharp surface temperature gradient will be
in place along and north of the warm front with a 30 knot low-level
southwest jet leading to strong isentropic ascent. The air mass
will be anomalously moist with Precipitable Water values around
1.7 inches. This points to the likelihood of periods of heavy
rain, with the axis of highest amounts dependent on the placement
of the frontal boundary. Please see the hydrology section at the
bottom for more details. There is also the potential for strong
storms if instability becomes surface-based on Sunday and Sunday
Night, mainly closer to the gulf coast. The main threats are
isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado. Highs on Sunday will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s north of the warm front to the
mid-60s to mid-70 to the south of it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

An unsettled period of weather will continue through Thursday. A
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity on
Monday and Tuesday, but should lift northward on Wednesday as warm
front, before a cold frontal passage on Thursday or Thursday
Night. The pattern may support morning fog Monday through
Wednesday, with otherwise considerable clouds and a chance of
showers each day. With the passage of the cold front, ensembles
indicate instability increasing on Thursday, so strong storms are
possible, followed by a drying trend on Friday. Highs in the 70s
Monday through Wednesday with lows in the 50s, so overall a warm
period of weather. Note that the highs could be a bit overdone
depending on the position of the front, so further adjustments are
likely. Turning cooler Thursday into Friday with temps closer to
seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Mostly clear skies are making for continued VFR conds thru the
period. Northerly winds around 5 kts become lgt/vrb tonight, then
switch out of the east to SE tmrw between 5 and 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1031 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Cautionary winds have subsided late this morning as offshore
buoys are reporting sustained north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
near 20 knots and 4 foot seas. East to Southeast winds of 15 to 20
knots are expected Saturday into Sunday morning with the approach
of a warm front. Winds may reach advisory levels around 20 knots
as they become Southerly on Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night
with the passage of a warm front, as seas west of the Ochlockonee
River increase to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas will lower on Monday
with more tranquil boating conditions expected on Monday Night
and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Dry and cool weather is expected for the next two days with light
winds and no fire weather concerns expected. The next weather system
is forecast to move through the area Sunday into Monday. Dispersions
are forecast to be low on Sunday with the increased rain chances
across the region. Otherwise there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

The next chance precipitation is Sunday and Sunday Night when
widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely. The axis
of heaviest precipitation will be determined by where the frontal
boundary sets up. Within this axis, locally higher amounts of 4
to 5 inches are possible. While minor poor drainage flooding is
the main concern, cannot rule out isolated flash flooding if the
locally higher amounts occur in a short period of time, especially
where WPC has indicated a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall.

Rivers have been on the rise, with portions of the Apalachicola
and Ochlockonee in action stage. This weekend`s rainfall could
raise portions of the Ochlockonee River into minor flood by the
early to middle of next week, but that`s still highly uncertain
at this time. Meanwhile, portions of the Choctawhatchee may rise
into action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  34  63  49 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   58  38  63  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  33  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  32  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  31  67  53 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  42  61  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...LF


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