Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

[Through 12Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions through the period with light northerly winds
around 5kts at nearly all sites. Expect winds to shift to the
south-southwest at ECP this afternoon with speeds increasing to
near 10kts. Smoke from the nearby Burnt Mill Creek fire is
unlikely to spread over the terminal through the period.



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...

Quiet and warm conditions will persist through midweek as high
pressure will be in control over the tri-state region. A potent
upper level low will dig southeastward across the Inter-mountain
West into northern Mexico by mid-week, setting the stage for
weather across the southeast for the late week period. This system
will tap into mid-level subtropical moisture and push it
downstream and into the tri-state area by Wednesday, marking an
increase in mid to upper level clouds. With surface high pressure
in place and ridging aloft, expect high temperatures to run
several degrees above normal with low to mid 80s forecast.
Overnight lows will remain near normal in the lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Dry conditions will persist through the day Thursday before the
aforementioned upper low pushes eastward into the Southeast
bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms to the tri-state
area. While confidence is high in showers and thunderstorms
pushing across the region Thursday night into Friday, there is
enough variance between guidance members and runs to keep
confidence on the lower side regarding how long this system
lingers in the region. The last several runs of the GFS and GEFS
have been fairly consistent in attempting to close the low off
somewhere in the general vicinity of north Florida, which would
keep showers and storms in the forecast through Friday night.
Yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF run favored that solution, but the latest
run is much more progressive with the aforementioned system,
clearing the CWA overnight Friday. There continues to be
reasonable confidence at this time in the severe weather threat
remaining low. Bulk shear continues to look unimpressive and
instability limited in the last several model runs to support a
severe threat. Nonetheless, there will be a brief departure from
dry and abnormally warm weather by the end of the week.


Winds between 5 and 10 knots will be common with the direction
becoming southerly each afternoon through Wednesday. Winds and
seas will increase slightly on Thursday and Friday as a system
approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms expected


Low RH`s will remain in place today across the area. However, weak
surface winds will preclude red flag conditions. Weak transport
winds and slightly lower mixing heights along the immediate Florida
Gulf Coast could yield marginally low dispersions this afternoon.


The Apalachicola River near Blountstown is currently in Minor
Flood Stage this morning and is forecast to rise nearly one foot
before leveling off. The river is forecast to gradually recede
through the end of the week, likely falling back into action stage
by the weekend. The next chance of rain across the region will
come on Friday. However, this system is expected to be
progressive, generally keeping rainfall amounts around an inch
across the region.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   84  53  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  58  78  62  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        81  55  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        81  56  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  54  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    82  53  84  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  57  78  61  78 /   0   0   0   0   0




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LONG TERM...Pullin
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