Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 161335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019


No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
The 12z KTAE sounding still shows a relatively low precipitable
water value at 1.33 inches. However, mid-level lapse rates have
steepened quite a bit and DCAPE is over 1000 j/kg. The hi-res
guidance continues to point to the best chance of convection today
across the southeast big bend with PoPs there in the 30-50% range.
Elsewhere, rain chances are expected to remain 20% or less today.
Given the environment in place, one or two stronger storms could
occur prior to sunset this evening.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Patchy fog is possible early this morning mainly west of the
Apalachicola River into portions of southeast Alabama. Some
showers may make it onshore into portions of the coastal big
bend this morning as well.

The highest chances for precipitation today will be east of
the Flint River in GA, southward into the big bend from Leon
County and points southeastward, where precip potential will
be in the chance category this afternoon and evening. With
a weak flow aloft, generally out of the southeast in the low
to mid-levels, showers and thunderstorms will be sea breeze
driven within the weak surface pressure gradient. Much drier
air just northwest of the aforementioned area, especially in
the mid-levels, should keep the remainder of the area mainly
dry, with a rather tight gradient in precip along the north-
west side. With Downdraft CAPE approaching 1k J/kg, would
not be surprised if an isolated, strong thunderstorm wind
gust or two occurs.

High temperatures and humidity will be near seasonable levels.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The shortwave over the Southern Plains this morning will fracture
and result in a shortwave moving into the Southeast, and another
moving into the Midwest through the period. This will amplify the
northern stream trough over the eastern CONUS and could provide
some extra forcing for storms, in addition to the afternoon
seabreeze fronts. South and southwesterly low-layer flow will
continue to advect moisture into the Tri-State region resulting in
seasonable PWATs. Thus, with typical moisture levels and the
influence of troughing aloft, expect slightly more coverage of
storms than usual each afternoon along, and away from the
seabreeze fronts. High temperatures will hover in the low 90s
which is right around normal.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The broad eastern CONUS trough will re-energize as then northern
and southern streams merge and superposition shortwaves over the
Central Plains around mid-week. Expect an amplification of the
longwave trough as the shortwave traverses the eastern CONUS
through the Midwest and Northeast. The seabreezes will remain
active through the week, and by the end of the week expect that
westerly steering flow will advect upstream storms into the region
each afternoon/evening. By the weekend, models agree that deep
layer ridging will build back in and that drier air will advect in
from the south. Thus, expect rain chances to decrease through the

[Through 12Z Monday]

Predominantly VFR conditions at all terminals through
the period with winds generally southeast around 5 knots,
becoming south with the sea-breeze this afternoon at
ECP. Thunderstorm potential is greatest at TLH and VLD
this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out ceiling
and vsby restrictions late tonight, but confidence is
low, and any fog/low clouds may remain outside terminals.


Light winds and low seas are forecast up until mid-week when
Cautionary conditions will be possible through the remainder of
the week.


Minimum relative humidity along with rain chances increase over the
next few days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.


Our seabreeze pattern will become more active, increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms for next week. However widespread
rainfall accumulations are expected to remain low - around one to
two inches. Localized flooding will be possible in areas that see
slower storms with higher rainfall rates, but no widespread
flooding issues are anticipated.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   92  72  90  72  90 /  30  20  40  20  50
Panama City   88  75  87  76  86 /  10  10  40  20  40
Dothan        93  72  92  72  90 /   0  10  50  20  50
Albany        93  73  92  73  91 /  10  10  40  30  50
Valdosta      91  72  92  72  91 /  30  20  60  20  60
Cross City    88  72  88  72  88 /  50  40  60  30  50
Apalachicola  86  76  86  75  86 /  10  20  40  20  40




SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
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