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000
FXUS64 KCRP 242351
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected once again through this
forecast period. Have brief MVFR conditions toward morning for
ALI/VCT sites with fog potential. Winds increase to moderate
levels once again on Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

High pressure continues over South Texas tonight through Saturday
night with warm and dry conditions expected. A little piece of
vorticity at 500 mb will move just to the north of the area
tonight but we really don`t anticipate much impact with this. We
might have an isolated sprinkle as a result, but PWATs are still
relatively low (around 1.2") so chances for any rain are very low.
As morning approaches, we may see some mist or patchy fog across
the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads but this will be short-
lived and will lift shortly after sunrise. Heat index values will
reach 105 to 109 once again Saturday under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

A strong upper trough over the upper Midwest Sunday morning will
move through the Great Lakes Monday. This will send a frontal
boundary through the southern plains early next week. The frontal
boundary is expected to reach central Texas Monday and possibly
through south Texas on Tuesday. Deep moisture will be in advance of
the frontal boundary with GFS/ECMWF models showing precipitable
water values near 2 inches over the Victoria Crossroads by Monday
afternoon. This region of deeper moisture will remain over the
coastal plains Tuesday through Thursday. Expect scattered convection
will develop along this boundary by Monday afternoon and continue
into Tuesday as the boundary moves offshore.

Ensemble runs from the GEFS/ECENS show the possibility of a low
pressure area forming along this boundary over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday night/Wednesday that could drift back toward the
middle and upper Texas coast Wednesday/Thursday. The 12Z GFS
deterministic run was a little early with developing something along
this boundary Tuesday and moving it inland Wednesday. This will be
something that will be monitored in later forecasts. For now, will
show a dissipating frontal boundary by Tuesday evening with onshore
flow returning. High moisture will remain over the coastal region
Wednesday with the possibility of a mid level trough/low near the
coast. Will keep a chance of convection over the coastal plains with
the better chances over the Mid-Coast Wednesday. The mid level
trough could continue over the area into Thursday keeping a slight
chance of rain in the forecast.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for Wednesday to
Thursday time frame regarding whether or not an area of low pressure
develops over the Gulf of Mexico near the dissipating frontal
boundary and if a mid level low forms along the Texas coast. But the
pattern does seem to indicate a least an increasing chance for
beneficial rainfall next week for the coastal plains.

MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow will continue across the coastal waters
tonight, then become light to moderate through Saturday night.
Light onshore flow Sunday morning will become weak to moderate in
the afternoon with the sea breeze and continue Sunday evening. The
flow will become weak offshore by Monday morning with the passage
of a pre- frontal trough with onshore flow returning by the
afternoon. A frontal boundary is expected to move offshore by
Tuesday morning with a weak to moderate offshore flow. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible Monday night through Wednesday
with the frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  95  77  93  75  /   0   0   0  10   0
Victoria          73 100  72 100  73  /   0   0   0  10   0
Laredo            75 102  76 101  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             73 100  72  98  72  /   0   0   0  10   0
Rockport          80  93  80  94  79  /   0   0   0  10   0
Cotulla           75 105  75 103  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        73  97  75  96  73  /   0   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       80  89  81  90  80  /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PH/83...AVIATION