Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 170604
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
104 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the aviation discussion below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...

Through the morning hours, areas generally east of highway 281
will be mostly in the IFR ceiling range with mainly MVFR
conditions expected further west. A slow improvement in ceilings
to mostly MVFR conditions is expected through the late morning
and aftn. Only a few light sprinkles/showers and/or patchy drizzle
can be expected overnight and during the day on Wednesday. By
Wednesday evening, rain chances will begin increasing from east to
west areawide but especially across the eastern TAF sites. By
03Z Thursday, most areas will be back down to IFR levels as the
rain begins to develop.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1050 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The forecast is in pretty good shape this evening and no major
changes were needed. Forecast was updated to account for latest
trends and obs. For the overnight hours, some showers may move
inland from Gulf as suggested by hi-res guidance. Outside of any
showers, patchy drizzle will be possible across the area. Vsbys
recently dropped at VCT to between 2 and 4 miles and have also
included some fog in the forecast over the Victoria Crossroads.
With abundant cloud cover across the region, temperatures should
hold in the 50s.

MARINE...

Small craft advisories continue over the Middle Texas Coastal
Waters through Wednesday. Borderline conditions around 20 knots
will occur overnight, but should increase during the day on
Wednesday to between 20 and 25 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

AVIATION...

MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail across South Texas throughout
the taf period. Some drizzle may occur tonight with showers
possible during the day on Wednesday. Winds over the next 24 hours
will be out of the northwest to north, generally between 10 and
15 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Weak isentropic lift today has kept shower activity to a minimum,
with mainly just drizzle across South Texas. Flow will remain weak
tonight and will not expect much substantial rainfall again
tonight...mainly just cool cloudy and damp/drizzly. Isentropic lift
begins to increase a bit on Wednesday so will expect scattered
showers once again. Will keep the thick cloud cover and cool
temperatures going through Wednesday as well with lows tonight
similar to last night...upper 40s and lower 50s... and highs
tomorrow a couple of degrees warmer than today...but still well
below normal. As moisture increases along the coast will start to
see slightly warmer temperatures (60s) there. A weak coastal trough
a bit offshore the Texas coast today and tonight will begin to
tighten up and drift toward the coast Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This should provide a better focus for rain as moisture increases
with PWATs approaching 2.5 inches by the end of the period.

Record low max temps are breakable again on Wednesday...though will
not be as impressive as today where we will break these records by
10-15 degrees for all 3 climate sites.  Tomorrows records are as
follows...CRP:69, VCT:66, LRD: 69.  These are all above current
forecast highs...though VCT could be relatively close.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Thursday/Friday, an upper disturbance over the Four Corners/SRN
Rockies lifts NE/dissipates while another upper system
develops/moves from Canada across the NRN Plains/Midwest. Over the
CWA/MSA, a coastal trough persists. Expect this trough to combine
with copious moisture a generate numerous/widespread shower activity
Thursday/Friday. Owing to expected efficient rainfall production,
persistent convergent region, saturated environment, excessive
rainfall may occur over the ERN CWA. Isentropic lift expected over
the CNTRL/WRN CWA.

Saturday/Sunday, in response to the foregoing NRN disturbance, a
secondary surge of surface high pressure expected to move across the
CWA/MSA. Copious moisture remains after the surge and will retain
PCPN in the forecast, consistent with the SuperBlend.

Monday/Tuesday, copious moisture persists and a coastal trough/weak
isentropic lift redevelops which contributes to additional
precipitation.

MARINE...

Have lowered wave heights just a bit based on current observations.
Not seeing anything above 5 feet from the 3 buoys that are
relatively close, so will stick with more of a 5 to 7 this evening
increasing to 6 to 8 in deep waters later in the night. As far as
SCA is concerned, have gone ahead and extended for another 24 hours
for open waters as winds and seas will both be at or near SCA
criteria. Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Wednesday night
as well. SCA/SCEC conditions anticipated Thursday owing to the
strong MSLP gradient associated with the coastal trough/surface
anticyclone to the north. SCA conditions expected Saturday
night/Sunday in response to the secondary surge of surface high
pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  57  65  61  72  /  50  80  70  60  70
Victoria          62  55  66  60  69  /  40  70  70  50  60
Laredo            57  52  57  55  67  /  30  80  70  50  40
Alice             61  54  61  58  68  /  40  80  70  60  60
Rockport          65  60  68  66  74  /  50  80  70  70  80
Cotulla           57  53  57  55  66  /  30  70  70  60  40
Kingsville        61  56  63  59  70  /  50  80  70  60  70
Navy Corpus       66  62  69  68  76  /  60  80  70  70  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION


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