Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191113
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
513 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread dense fog producing LIFR conditions across most of S TX
this morning, is expected to lift by mid morning. VFR conditions
are expected area-wide by mid to late this morning and will
continue through early evening. A strengthening LLJ will increase
stratus across S TX overnight. Patchy fog will also be possible
by late tonight into early Wed morning. The stratus and fog are
expected to produce MVFR conditions after midnight. IFR conditions
can not be ruled out, but most models show prevailing MVFR
conditions. A light south to southeast flow is expected today and
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Widespread dense fog this morning is expected to lift by mid
morning. The remainder of the day will be mostly sunny to partly
cloudy with slightly above normal temperatures. Highs are
expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Light and variable winds
this morning will become southeast and strengthen slightly by
this afternoon as surface high pressure deepens along the Rockies
and W TX. The low level jet is progged to strengthen out of the
south tonight to 30-35 knots. This will lead to increasing low
level moisture/stratus overnight. Patchy fog is possible tonight,
however, given the stronger winds and increase in cloud cover,
dense fog is not expected at this time. The LLJ is expected to mix
to the surface Wednesday leading to breezy conditions by Wed
afternoon. Warmer temperatures are also expected Wed. A few
showers will be possible Wed across the northeastern CWA and
coastal waters due to an upper level short wave combining with the
increasing moisture. PWATs are progged to increase to around 1.5
inches on Wed, but a strong cap will also be in place keeping the
precip isolated.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday Night)...

No major changes were necessary with this forecast package as the
latest ECMWF is now marching more in unison with the GFS and CMC
through Saturday. Even with continued southerly flow Wed night
through early Fri, further gains in PWATs are forecast to be minimal
during this period following their larger strides on Wed. However,
background ascent should fare a bit better as soon as Thu morning as
a southerly LLJ emerges underneath amplifying SW flow. Models
indicate some shallow streamer showers near this LLJ axis in the
morning (mainly impacting our NE zones), but afternoon convection
may be harder to come by as a stubborn EML just below 700 mb serves
to cap surface parcels.

Southwest flow aloft trends more cyclonic Thu night and Fri ahead of
a filling upper low in the Great Basin. Although this trough is
minoring out on Fri with only modest height falls expected for South
Texas, a brief period of favorable deep layer ascent courtesy of a
cold front and subtropical jet streak could be enough for scattered
showers and some storms on Fri before PWATs are cut in half on Sat
with the arrival of dry surface ridging. Briefly zonal flow on the
heels of Fri`s trough and seasonably cool temps looks to buckle back
to southwesterly flow early next week, but the trough responsible
for this change shows enough disparity among the global models and
ensembles (not unusual for being seven days away), so we won`t
entertain much in the way of rain chances at this point.

MARINE...

Light and variable flow this morning is expected to strengthen out
of the southeast this afternoon and become weak to moderate tonight
in response to deepening low pressure across W TX. Onshore flow is
expected to become moderate to occasionally strong by Wednesday
afternoon. Winds/seas may approach advisory levels by late Wed
afternoon. Isolated showers are possible Wednesday due to increasing
moisture and a weak upper disturbance. Onshore flow will remain
moderate to occasionally strong Wednesday night through Thursday
with SCA conditions at times. Deeper moisture by Thursday should
lead to isolated showers, before scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop on Friday ahead of a cold front. Moderate
onshore flow Thursday night and early Friday will become strong
offshore by Friday evening following the front. Rain chances will
diminish on Saturday with drier, but continued moderate to strong
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  65  80  68  80  /   0  10  10  10  10
Victoria          78  60  79  65  79  /   0   0  20  10  20
Laredo            81  65  83  67  85  /   0  10  10  10   0
Alice             81  63  84  67  84  /   0  10  10  10  10
Rockport          75  66  77  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           81  62  82  66  84  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        80  64  83  68  83  /   0  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       74  67  76  69  77  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following
     zones: Bee...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
     Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
     Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland
     Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San
     Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...
     Victoria...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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