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000
FXUS64 KCRP 231807
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
107 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect for the Southern Coastal Bend today

A look at water vapor imagery this morning reveals the upper ridge
that will be influencing our weather through the weekend. This ridge
will remains fairly stationary for the next couple of days. A few
impulses may rotate around its periphery but look to stay too far
north to impact us. GOES TPW imagery depicts a plume of deep
moisture (PWATs 1.9") draped across the Coastal Plains and over the
coastal waters. A few streamer showers may be possible this morning
within this axis of deeper moisture with some activity spreading
inland with the sea breeze through the day. The best chances (20-
30%) will be across the Northern Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads. With all that said, most locations will remain dry today
as subsidence does its best to hinder our rain chances.

Similar conditions can be expected on Sunday as ridging remains in
control. Moisture levels will trend down a tad tomorrow leading to
even lower rain chances.

Temperatures both today and tomorrow will warm into the low 90s
along the coast to around 100 out west. Heat indices today will
climb into the 110-114 range for Kleberg, Nueces, and San Pat
counties. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon
through early this evening. Outside of the advisory, heat indices
from 105-109 can be expected. We will need to monitor for trends out
west as we may reach our 110 threshold for a Heat Advisory but not
for a long enough time period. It`s likely we see another advisory
issued on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Key Message:

 - Lowered rain chances as cold front has trended weaker and further
north

TL;DR: Unfortunately, next week has trended drier but rain chances
remain.

A mid-level low over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward
through the week, nudging the ridge over Mexico to the west and
allow some troughing to push into Texas. A very weak cold front will
push across North Texas by Monday and weaken/dissipate as it pushes
into the Hill Country Tuesday morning. Models continue to disagree
with the southern extent but overall the trend has shifted northward
and the front weaker. The CMC is persistent pushing the front
clearly through South Texas Tuesday into Tuesday night, whereas the
GFS/ECMWF has it dissipating as it struggles to move into the CWA
through the middle of the week. A big consideration now that we`re
near the 84-hr mark of the forecast for the front is the inclusion
of the NAM. The NAM is known to perform better with shallow front
scenarios, like in this case. The end of the 0Z NAM run at 12Z on
Tuesday has a pre-frontal wind shift entering the CWA but the actual
front, air mass gradient, and greatest moisture convergence well
north of the CWA over the Hill Country.

Considering the above and the greatest lift support and moisture
convergence north of the area, reduced PoPs by as much as 20%
through the long term. Rain chances 20-35% Monday afternoon and
limited over the northern counties, then only 20-35% across all of
South Texas on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday, mid-level moisture
decreases and enhanced moisture is focused over the waters and right
along the coast. Included slight chances (20%) over the Coastal
Plains Wednesday through Thursday, increasing slightly on Friday as
an area of enhanced moisture swings southward from the northwestern
Gulf. Greatest chances remain over the waters.

Due to the lesser rain chances and sky cover, temperatures have been
raised a couple degrees but still expect heat index values to remain
less than 105. WPC contains a low to moderate (10-40%) chance of
heat index values exceeding 105 over the Coastal Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Predominate VFR conditions this afternoon/evening, with brief MVFR
conditions near isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms over
mainly the Victoria Crossroads. A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions
are expected over South Texas during the 09-15z Sunday period,
followed by a transition to predominate VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head through the
weekend. Winds will increase to moderate levels each afternoon
south of Port Aransas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible today over the waters with rain chances waning as head
into Sunday. A weak boundary will near the waters the middle of
next week, occasionally shifting winds to the northeast. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday night through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  79  97  77 /  10   0  10  10
Victoria          97  77  98  74 /  30   0  10  10
Laredo           102  79 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            101  76 101  74 /  10   0   0  10
Rockport          92  81  94  79 /  30  10  10  10
Cotulla          103  78 103  77 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville       100  78 101  76 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       94  82  94  81 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244-342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...WC/87