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000
FXUS64 KCRP 252333
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the discussion below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions will gradually transition to MVFR
conditions by the early morning hours across most of South Texas.
However, the main issue will be an increasing coverage of showers
and thunderstorms across the western one-third of South Texas,
generally west of Highway 16. Will continue to advertise
thunderstorms through most of the TAF fcst pd for the Laredo TAF
site. Further east for the remainder of the TAF sites, rain
chances will be a bit lower and delayed until the early to mid
morning hours. Better chances for thunder will be during the aftn
across these particular locations as well. MVFR cigs will
gradually transition to VFR cigs by mid to late morning Tuesday
across most areas except Laredo where MVFR cigs will hold on even
into the aftn.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)

Activity across the eastern half of the region will slowly dissipate
with the loss of daytime heating while better support/dynamics
across the west may get things going out there by later this
evening. Hi-res guidance then shows more activity across the
Southern Coastal Bend developing spreading farther inland through
the morning hours, basically a near repeat of activity we had
today.

The one big difference for Tuesday is the idea of widespread
convection across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains
developing by early/mid-afternoon. We continue with the higher
PoPs and threat of moderate to heavy rainfall across the western
quarter/third of the region through Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. A lot of this depends on location and timing of the
shortwave troughs traversing through the region the next 36-48
hours as the longwave trough to our west sets up shop. It could
be a very fine line where some of these impulses clip the extreme
western portions of the region allowing for stronger storms to
develop with much higher QPF or they stay just far enough north to
produce minimal impacts. There has been a decent consensus of
bigger impacts for a few days now just to our north. This trend
hasn`t changed too much but when looking at some smaller scale
processes it may not mean much.

With more rain and cloud cover temperatures will be tempered down a
bit but the humidity factor will remain ugly as PWATs continue to
modify upward.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

The period begins with an upper level closed low moving into the
Four Corners area and a series of upper level disturbances that will
provide instability across our region. The energy provided by the
disturbances, and high deep layer moisture filtering from the
Pacific will continue the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall
through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, especially for the
northwestern portion of the area. Eastern portions of the area will
see more of a diurnal pattern in the convection, but with very moist
area, seabreeze convection that develops could produce briefly heavy
rains.  A weak cold front will move south reaching our area Friday
or Friday night. Temperatures are not expected to drop
significantly, but we will get slightly drier air into the
region...at least briefly. A return to a more zonal flow is expected
by the weekend. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s along
the coast to around 90 inland. A drop on the low temperatures of a
couple of degrees is expected for the weekend after the passage of
the cold front. Otherwise, low temperatures will remain near normal
values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  77  89  75  /  50  50  40  30  10
Victoria          74  89  74  90  72  /  10  40  20  20  10
Laredo            78  94  77  91  75  /  60  60  70  50  50
Alice             75  92  75  91  73  /  40  50  40  40  30
Rockport          80  89  79  88  78  /  30  50  30  30  10
Cotulla           76  92  75  91  73  /  60  70  80  70  50
Kingsville        77  93  76  91  75  /  40  50  40  30  20
Navy Corpus       80  89  80  88  79  /  50  50  30  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION