Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 220509 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1209 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Update for 06z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...As of writing, a cold front was pushing south across
KSAT towards S TX. Front should push across KVCT within a few
hours and through KLRD to KCRP by 12z (if not sooner). VFR should
prevail well ahead of the front at KLRD with fluctuations b/w
MVFR/VFR at KCRP/KALI/KVCT. If sfc winds can become light enough
ahead of the front, then a brief period of reduced vsbys may
occur. Couple of hrs of MVFR CIGs may occur immediately behind
FROPA with a VFR to prevail drng the daylight hrs on Sun. Thin
band of SHRA may skirt across KVCT/KCRP with the FROPA. Weak/vrb
sfc winds ahead of the front (maybe becmg more SWrly)...then
breezy Nrly sfc winds after FROPA thru Sun mrng.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated weather grids to include ongoing showers this evening
across the northern coastal bend. These showers should continue to
push out of the region over the next hour or so. Patchy to areas
of fog is expected to develop as drier mid levels move in allowing
for favorable conditions. Not too certain on dense fog, although
low visibilities will be possible. If any dense fog should
develop, expecting it to be rather brief before the cold front
moves through.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 703 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...

Isolated shower activity remains this evening across areas roughly
east of ALI. Will maintain VCSH in TAFs for the next couple of
hours for CRP-VCT. With increase in inhibition, not expecting
lightning through the rest of the evening. MVFR CIGs are expected
to develop this evening, with the exception of VFR at LRD through
the TAF period. Winds will also begin to decouple over the next
couple of hours, then quickly shift out of the north as a cold
front moves through the region between 09Z-12Z. Prior to the wind
shift, BR will be possible. Isolated showers will be possible
along the frontal boundary, but with moisture focused mainly
across the east, will only mention VCSH for CRP-VCT. Breezy
northerly winds are expected behind the front with gusts of 20-25
KTs (slightly less gusts toward LRD). Winds will decrease
slightly through the day yet remain with gusts near 20 KTs. A
gradual shift to the northeast is expected toward 00Z MON with
winds showing signs of diminishing.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

An upper level trough axis moving across TX continues to produce
iso/sct showers across the interior portions of the CWA this
afternoon. Am expecting this trend to continue into the early
evening hours. Have gone with a chc of showers and a slight chc of
thunderstorms across the VCT area due to better proximity to upper
level dynamics and weaker capping inversion. Rain chcs are expected
to diminish through late evening as CIN values increase and the
upper trough axis shifts to the east of the region. There will be a
few hours overnight where fog may develop across inland areas due to
drying in the upper levels but continued moisture in the lowest
levels combined with a weakening wind field ahead of a cold front.
The cold front is progged to enter the northern CWA between 07Z-09Z
and reach the coastline between 10Z-12Z. Another round of weak iso
shra`s are expected along the frontal bdry. The fog is also expected
to dissipate as the winds shift to the north and strengthen behind
the front. Slightly cooler and drier air is expected to advect
across S TX through Sun morning. Highs on Sunday will be warm due to
the drier airmass/decreasing clouds and in spite of weak CAA. Cooler
temps will be more noticeable by Sun night. As for winds, this
afternoon`s breezy winds will relax this evening as the cold front
moves into central TX. Mod north winds are progged behind the front
across S TX early Sun morning, then relaxing through the afternoon.
Over the waters, winds may approach advisory levels by Sun morning
behind the bdry then also weaken by Sun afternoon. Sun night looks
to be clear and cool with light winds.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...

The longterm period starts off quiet with warm temperatures and
northerly flow behind a departing mid-level low and subsequent
surface high pressure spreading in behind it. Surface flow quickly
turns back onshore ahead of the next mid-level system ejecting into
the Great Basin and then the Central Plains by mid-week. The trends
within the ensembles has been weaker and slightly farther west with
the next trough passage and it looks very positively tilted. This
trough will send a weak cold front towards the region Wednesday
night into Thursday morning but we look to be on the tail end of the
better forcing and the PWATs don`t look too high, around 1.4-1.5",
so we continue a dry forecast...for now. Stronger mid-level forcing
and a closer mid-level trough passage to the region on Friday looks
to provide a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still have
plenty of time to refine the details for late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  83  60  84  61  /  20  10  10   0  10
Victoria          58  79  55  82  57  /  40   0   0   0  10
Laredo            65  86  64  89  65  /  10   0  10  10  10
Alice             64  85  59  87  59  /  20  10  10  10  10
Rockport          65  80  62  79  64  /  30   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           58  83  58  87  60  /  10   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        67  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       68  81  65  81  66  /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION



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