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000
FXUS64 KCRP 220153 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
853 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Just made some minor adjustments to the wind and dew point grids
to match observations and trends a bit better. Overall the
temperature forecast looks good, so did not make changes there.
The changes in the grids did not impact the wording in the ZFPCRP,
so no ZFP will be updated at this time. Only updates were to the
PFMCRP and AFMCRP.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds at Bob Hall Pier and Port Aransas 17 and 18 knots,
respectively. Winds will eventually come down, but usually after
midnight. Did update the CWF to go with a 15 knot wind forecast
for now, with winds diminishing after midnight. Will re-evaluate
for the 1030 PM package, but winds will likely stay around 15
knots at least for an hour or two after midnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

Could have some tempo MVFR at KALI and KVCT toward sunrise;
otherwise am expecting VFR conditions for the terminal forecast.
Do not think fog will be as bad as it was this morning at KALI, as
boundary layer winds are a bit higher overnight (model soundings
do not support that either). Still it could decouple enough to
bring some light fog there (and even perhaps KVCT but KVCT more
likely for clouds moving in from the gulfmex). Also, could have
some showers near KVCT after 15Z (did include for the 17Z
forecast) but confidence too low and too isolated for a PROB30 or
TEMPO at this time. Overall a typical summertime terminal
forecast concerning winds, with diminishing winds overnight then
picking up again after the inversion breaks and backing more to
the SE as the sea-breeze moves through.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Any isolated convection over northeast sections of the area will
wane with the loss of daytime heating. Some showers may redevelop
over the Gulf Waters late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Overnight lows will range from the 70s inland to low 80s along the
immediate coast.

On Saturday, inverted trough will continue to move westward across
the Gulf. Being on the western side of this disturbance, most
locations should remain dry. The exception may be across Coastal
Bend into Victoria Crossroads where deeper moisture will reside
(PWs around or slightly above 2 inches). Will keeps pops in the 20
to 30 percent range as daytime heating and the sea breeze may
trigger some isolated convection. The heat will be an issue again
on Saturday with highs between 100 and 105 over the western Brush
Country and Rio Grande to middle 90s near Victoria. The hot temps
combined with the humid conditions will produce dangerous heat
index values. A heat advisory may be needed across portions of the
area, especially southern Coastal Bend.

Similar trend is expected tomorrow with convection subsiding during
the evening, but isolated showers then redeveloping overnight
over the Gulf Waters. Lows again will be in the 70s inland with
low 80s along the coat.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Surface low pressure across the southern high plains and high
pressure across the northern gulf will maintain a more moderate
onshore flow across the gulf waters through early next week, with
breezy conditions in the afternoons inland. A weak shear axis will
remain along the Texas coast Sunday, but moisture is lacking so have
cut back on POPs for Sunday and Monday. Mid level ridging builds
back to the south Tuesday, but at the surface, moisture increases
across the Middle Texas Coast on the western periphery of the
surface high. This will bring back chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday, with most activity
being thermally driven. Temperatures through the period will remain
hot, with the humidity leading to temperatures to feel like 105 to
109 degrees daily across the majority of South Texas. Some locations
may reach 110 or greater which may require Heat Advisories on and
off through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  94  78  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          77  96  78  97  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
Laredo            78 104  80 103  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
Alice             76 100  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          82  94  82  94  82  /  20  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           77 102  78 102  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        77  98  78  98  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       82  94  83  95  84  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM