Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
833 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 833 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Showers will continue to decrease across northeast Colorado this
evening and end by midnight. Due to dry air near the surface much
of the precipitation evaporated before reaching the ground.
Lowered pops earlier because of this. If precipitation reaches the
ground expect it to be snow and melt right away. Once the showers
end, the rest of the night is expected to be partly cloudy. A few
flurries can`t be ruled out in the mountains, however no
accumulation is expected.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Light showers are forming over and near the mountains as expected.
The airmass is also drying, which should limit the extent and
intensity of this convection. Current forecast seems to cover
this adequately, though I did slow down the timing of these
showers by a couple of hours with them decreasing in the early

There is gradual warming through tomorrow with some clouds moving
over. Much of this is mid level and may be wiped out by the Front
Range, or skip over it. Our forecast has varieties of "partly
cloudy" which looks alright. Northwest winds will mix down again
by midday Tuesday, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above today`s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Models have upper ridging to move in and across the CWA Tuesday
night through Thursday. By Thursday night, the upper ridge axis is
east of Colorado with southwesterly flow aloft for our CWA. The
QG Omega fields show benign to weak upward synoptic scale energy
for the CWA all five periods. The low level winds will basically
adhere to normal diurnal trends with a bit more than normal
downsloping mixed in. For moisture, it is somewhat sparse Tuesday
night through Thursday night. There is a tad of measurable
snowfall, just in the mountains, here and there in the QPF fields,
and nothing on the plains. Will put in or keep some pops and a
tad of QPF in the mountains. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs
will be 3-6 C warmer than Tuesday`s. Thursday`s highs will be 2-4
C warmer than Wednesday`s. For the later day`s Friday through
Monday, southwesterly flow aloft is in place through Saturday. A
broad upper trough will move into the CWA Sunday and Monday. The
medium range models do not agree well on this feature.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 833 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Tuesday. Ceilings of 6000
to 10000 feet will be possible at times tonight. Winds will end
up a south/southwest direction around 06z. On Tuesday, winds will
turn northwesterly late in the morning, around 17Z with gusts to
around 25 knots.




SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
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