


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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064 FXUS65 KCYS 292340 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 540 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening with a severe thunderstorm watch out. - Elevated fire weather conditions continue for Carbon county - Warm temperatures and daily coverage of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected for Tuesday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Mesoscale analysis shows an environment prime for some strong to severe thunderstorm development as of this writing, with CAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk effective shear of 20-40 knots. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for areas east of and around I-25 not including Converse County. The environment is supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts, but wind may become the more predominant threat as storms shift eastwards through the evening hours. High resolution guidance is in pretty solid agreement on this timeframe, with clustered storms departing the Nebraska Panhandle around 9-10 PM. Overnight activity should wane though a few lingering showers or weak storms may be possible for these areas through the morning hours. Ceilings may also lower and some mist or weak fog could be possible for areas including Cheyenne and Sydney, though confidence is overall low in this. For Monday a few upslope showers or storms may develop off of the high terrain in Wyoming, but probabilities are overall on the low side and we`ll see this quickly wane with the setting of the sun. Otherwise today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the period, with highs today in the 70`s to 80`s with widespread highs on Monday in the 70`s to low 80`s thanks to the cold front. That will change as we move into the long term though as summer warmth returns. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Tuesday...A warming trend develops as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 15 Celsius. Adequate moisture aloft for isolated to widely scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over and near the mountains. Wednesday...The warming trend continues as 700 mb temperatures reach 16 Celsius. Moisture availability looks less than Tuesday, thus we anticipate less shower and thunderstorm coverage. Thursday-July 4th...Similar temperatures on Thursday compared to Wednesday with 700 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius. A bit cooler for July 4th, with more cloud cover and moisture aloft. Scattered late day showers and thunderstorms each day. Saturday...Although ridging aloft builds overhead, there should still be adequate low and mid level moisture for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for most locations. Sunday...Slightly warmer as the flow aloft turns westerly. Adequate low and mid level moisture for scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of Interstate 25. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Scattered thunderstorms are moving eastward this evening and will have aviation impacts to most terminals. confidence is highest in direct impacts at KBFF and KAIA, with PROB30 groups elsewhere where confidence is not quite as high. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, strong, gusty, and erratic winds, IFR VIS in heavy rainfall, and isolated large hail. Strong thunderstorm activity should wind down by around 04z, but a few showers may linger in the NE panhandle well into the night. Moist, upslope flow in the lower levels will point towards some low CIGs to begin Monday morning. Confidence is highest in KCYS, but KLAR, KSNY, and KAIA may also see MVFR to IFR CIGs. This should clear out mid to late morning, with a relatively quiet day for Monday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...MN