Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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737 FXUS64 KTSA 151517 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1017 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1015 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Small area of showers/storms moving across NE OK this morning. Brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, otherwise not expecting severe weather with the morning activity. Areal coverage should diminish by later this morning as low level wind fields subside some, so will not carryover PoPs into the early afternoon. Made a few tweaks to PoPs and thunder through 18z. Earlier update was mainly for removing fog mention across NW AR in the zone text. At this time, will leave temps as they are with ample sunshine expected to return once morning convection ends. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 With a broad upper level trough sitting to the west through the end of the week, shower and thunderstorm coverage should continue to increase through the day Thursday and Thursday night. A general decreasing trend in coverage is expected through the day Friday as the system finally lifts northeast of the area, to be replaced by upper level ridging. While a low end severe weather threat will extend into Thursday and Thursday evening, the bigger concern is likely to be the heavy rain and flooding threat, especially considering the potential for locally heavy rains with today and tonight`s activity. Precipitable water values are forecast to be at least 90th percentile in much of the area by Thursday night, supporting the heavy rain threat, with the flooding concerns exacerbated by the wet conditions for the past few weeks. Seasonably hot and dry conditions should prevail for much of the upcoming weekend. Highs from Saturday into early next week should run around 10 degrees above normal in most spots. Both Sunday night and Monday night may feature parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas being brushed by MCS activity expected to develop and focus to the north of the Kansas and Missouri borders on the northern periphery of the ridge. Tuesday and into the middle of next week, a cold front may bring additional showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region, with deterministic models currently differing on whether the front will actually move through the area or not. This throws some uncertainty into the forecast for the end of the 7-day period both for temperatures and the southern extent of any rainfall potential. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A weak upper level wave has produced a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern/northeast OK this morning. This activity may impact BVO, TUL, and RVS through the next couple of hours before dissipating as the wave progresses eastward. Patchy fog/reduced vsbys will continue to impact XNA, ROG, and FYV through the next couple of hours before VFR prevails. Otherwise, anticipate BKN/OVC mid-upper level clouds through the day, with VFR prevailing at all TAF sites into this evening. Winds are expected to stay light and mostly variable, turning more southerly this afternoon. Another storm complex will move into northeast OK around sunset this evening, with storms progressing eastward through the night tonight. Though VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period, brief periods of MVFR/IFR/LIFR vsbys/cigs will be possible under heavy rain/thunderstorms. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 64 81 62 / 40 70 50 60 FSM 86 64 84 65 / 0 20 20 70 MLC 87 66 82 63 / 10 20 30 70 BVO 82 61 79 58 / 40 80 60 60 FYV 84 62 82 60 / 20 30 30 70 BYV 81 61 81 61 / 0 30 40 70 MKO 84 64 81 62 / 30 40 30 70 MIO 81 61 78 60 / 20 70 60 70 F10 85 63 80 62 / 30 40 40 70 HHW 85 65 82 64 / 0 20 30 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...67