Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250537 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Light southeast to south winds and mostly clear skies
prevail across deep south texas early this morning. Low clouds
will return overnight with ceilings expected around 2000 feet
before dawn. South winds should remain between 10 to 15 knots
through the overnight hours. Breezy to windy conditions expected
to develop later this morning into the afternoon, with sustained
winds around 20 knots with gusts above 30 knots during the
afternoon. South to southeast winds should begin to lower after
01z Monday with the loss of daytime heating.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Daytime CU field has thinned considerably with loss of
diurnal heating, and should stay nearly clear through late
evening. Lower cloud cover will return just before midnight. cap
location on evening sounding shows cloud level should be around
2000 feet overnight, once they begin to form up. Breezes should
stay elevated overnight, around 15 knots. Windy conditions
expected again tomorrow, with sustained winds around 20 knots with
gusts above 30 knots during the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Warm and dry weather will
continue through Sunday, with overhead ridging providing stable
conditions and strong high pressure over the Gulf coupled with a
Plains low pressure system supporting moderate to strong south
southeast winds. High temps Sunday will range from the mid 80s east
to the mid 90s west, slightly warmer than normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
A mix of clouds and sun along with breezy to windy conditions will
prevail on Sunday. As the H5 ridge shifts east and a more
southwesterly mid level flow develops over the Sierra Madre Oriental
range of Mexico Sunday night, unorganized isolated showers or
thunderstorms may develop well to the west, but should keep their
distance from deep South Texas and the RGV. Low temps will be around

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the
western Gulf of Mexico Monday will move eastward Tuesday as a
500mb trough moves eastward across the western United States.
Significant convection with heavy rainfall is expected to develop
across western and northern portions of Texas Mon night into
Tuesday and these showers and thunderstorms...some possibly
strong to severe...will move southward into portions of south TX
Tues night into Wednesday. A prefrontal trough is progged to move
through the CWA Wed afternoon providing a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms for the area. Best chance of rain likely Wed
night through early Thursday as a Pacific cold front moves through
the Rio Grande valley Thursday. Will go ahead and increase POPS
slightly higher Wed night into early Thursday as a result.
Temperatures will continue to be much above normal Monday through
Wednesday before drier and slightly cooler air filters into the
area on Thursday. More seasonable temperatures will prevail
through the rest of the forecast period with not much in the way
of rain chances as a weak and dry cold front moves through deep
south TX on Friday.

MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Marine winds will taper off to
below SCA criteria this evening. Buoy 020 reports a wave height right
around 7 feet, and if that continues the current advisory may need
to be extended tonight for the offshore Gulf waters. Not much change
is expected through Sunday night, with strong Gulf high pressure
propping up the local gradient and interacting with one High Plains
storm system scooting east today and then with another set to
develop on Sunday. Winds on Sunday could again be in the 15 to 25
knot range with persistent elevated wave heights and possible low
end small craft advisory conditions.

Monday through Thursday...Moderate to strong southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday with surface
low pressure across the southern plains and high pressure across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico provides a strong pressure gradient
across the western Gulf. SCEC to SCA conditions will prevail
across the lower Texas coast Monday and Tuesday. Winds are
expected to weaken Wednesday as a convective frontal boundary
moves into south TX. Small craft advisories will likely still be
needed for the offshore waters for high seas on Wednesday. A
Pacific cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters
Thursday. Winds will shift to the north and increase in the wake
of the front. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday as a




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