890
FXUS62 KCAE 151033
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
633 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid
week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain
chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week
and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical
shower/storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon evening

Abundant low-level moisture early this morning could lead to
patchy fog and low stratus. Any fog/stratus would dissipate an
hour or two after sunrise.

Low pressure and a weak upper trough shift westward today into
northern FL. This will bring a subsidence zone into
eastern/central SC limiting the overall convective coverage
this afternoon. However surface convergence along a seabreeze
and upslope flow into the Upstate should trigger isolated to
widely scattered convection despite weak subsidence. PWAT values
over the area are around 2 inches today which indicates some
potential for localized heavy rain. But a slightly stronger
storm motion vector today limits flooding concerns as storms
move off to the west. Storms will once again diminish in the
evening. Heights are a little lower today so highs should only
reach into the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected each day, likely
  limiting temperatures some.

Some weak troughing will continue across the Southeast
Wednesday and Thursday, aiding in supporting more scattered
showers/storms mainly during the afternoon and into the evening
during peak heating. Modest southerly to southwesterly moisture
transport will aid in keeping PWAT`s near to just under 2"
(around 120% of normal), but the expected showers/storms should
keep temperatures in check, in the low to mid 90s each day. The
00z HREF depicts SBCAPE values up to around 1800-2000 J/kg
Wednesday and forecast soundings show around 1500-1800 J/kg on
Thursday. With some decent mixing in the boundary layer, a storm
on the strong side cannot be ruled out, like has been the seen
the past couple days, with the main risks of frequent lightning,
isolated damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. Storm motions
each day will look to be a bit faster than previous days as
NAM,RAP,and GFS BUFKIT soundings depict between 15-20 kts of
southwesterly flow between 850mb and 600mb. This should aid in
lessening the overall risk for locally heavy rainfall and spots
of flash flooding, but wherever storm and boundary interactions
occur, this risk will remain present as these storms likely
continue to be efficient rainfall producers. This activity
dwindles into the late evening each day with overnight lows in
the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming into the weekend.

- Typical diurnal convection chances expected.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
slide into the Bahamas by early Friday, continuing to ridge into
the region through the day and this weekend. The main impact
from this will be afternoon highs that gradually reach above
average, which is reflected well in blended guidance. Seasonable
moisture should remain in place with these increasing
temperatures and thus hot and muggy conditions are expected over
the weekend and into early next week. There is little signal at
this time for any notable forcing for convection outside of
reaching the convective temp and due to this, typical isolated
to scattered diurnal convection is expected each day into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy visibility and ceiling restrictions possible early this
morning.

Debris clouds from overnight convection upstream has helped
keep dewpoint depressions up early this morning. Expected
fog/stratus has been more patchy despite abundant low-level
moisture. Guidance continues to indicate further stratus and
fog development right around sunrise so we still cant rule out a
period of restrictions through 14Z.

VFR conditions should return by 15Z to all TAF sites. Expect SE
winds from 5 to 10 kts from late morning through the afternoon.
Similar conditions over the area to the previous day suggests
another round of scattered storms beginning at 18Z today.
Storms will trigger along outflow boundaries making them
possible at all TAF sites into the evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early
morning fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$