Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270837
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Upper level pressure situated across the central Rockies will
advance only very slowly east today and tonight. Ridging downstream
of this low will cover much of the plains region. Upper level
forcing associated with the low will remain confined to the western
high plains today and tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon and tonight across this region. Shear
isn`t overly strong, but a few supercells containing large hail will
be possible. Due to ridging farther east across the central plains,
thunderstorms will have a hard time advancing eastward tonight. It
appears most of the activity in our immediate area will stay along
and mostly west of Highway 83 from Valentine to North Platte. The
western areas will see the best instability through this evening,
with it decreasing substantially farther east.

It will be another hot day today with highs in the upper 80s and
90s. Very mild again tonight with lows ranging from the upper 50s
across western Nebraska to 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Upper level low pressure across the Great Basin will begin to eject
slowly northeast toward the northern plains Monday. A stronger
shortwave will rotate northeast on the eastern fringes of the low
across the western and central plains. This will bring an increased
chance for thunderstorm activity Monday into Monday evening. This
will be aided by an increase in Gulf moisture and lee cyclogenesis
across eastern Colorado providing a couple of boundaries for
convection to focus on. Shear will be better Monday as southwest
winds aloft increase with the shortwave disturbance, and low level
winds back to the southeast due to the leeward cyclogenesis.
Organized severe storms appear possible, including supercells. South
to north flow aloft could allow for training of storms and heavy
rainfall Monday night.

Tuesday`s chance for thunder is more uncertain, as the atmosphere
will have likely been overturned from the Monday night convection,
and may have difficulty recovering.

Weak cold front will cross the area Tuesday night with dry and warm
conditions Wednesday into Thursday in it`s wake. By week`s end an
upper level trough will dig into the northern Rockies and move into
the northern plains during the weekend. A rapid return of quality
Gulf moisture is expected ahead of an associated cold front Thursday
night into Friday. As the cold front crosses the area late Friday, a
decent round of thunderstorms is possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Main concerns are thunderstorm chances late Sunday and LLWS
conditions tonight. Satellite imagery shows increasing cirrus
clouds across southwest Nebraska. High clouds will continue to
drift northeastward and will continue to persist overnight.
Meanwhile, LLWS conditions develop tonight associated with LLJ
starting near 04z later this evening and diminishing after 12z
Sunday morning. Upper height of the wind shear layer forecast
around 1.5 kft with a speed at the top of layer around 40-50 kts.
Partly sunny conditions expected tomorrow with VFR ceilings.
Lastly, there is potential for isolated thunderstorms in the
eastern Panhandle and far western NEB late tomorrow afternoon,
with increasing coverage as far east as KLBF and KVTN by late
Sunday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg



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