Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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852 FXUS64 KJAN 120244 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 944 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The 00Z Sun JAN sounding showed that the mid levels have moistened from this morning and local radars showed scattered showers and thunderstorms just west of Catahoula Parish. This is several hours faster than previous model consensus suggested. This activity is progged to continue spreading east overnight along and south of the Highway 84 corridor so have increased pops and introduced pops earlier across our southern zones. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Tonight and tomorrow... Most of the near term will be quiet amid a dry airmass. Seasonal temperatures have been observed leading to a very pleasant afternoon. As high pressure moves east, we will slowly begin to recover a moist airmass with steady warm advection. Mid to high level clouds will increase as a result, especially after midnight and perhaps a few showers in the far southwest. This regime persists into tomorrow as a weak disturbances pushes across the area late tomorrow afternoon and evening. As a result, rain and storm chances should increase, especially further south and west. Storm chances will be on the rise ahead of a stronger system for Monday which will carry a greater threat for strong to severe storms and possibly flash flooding./SAS/ Sunday Night through Friday... An active weather pattern will begin to unfold across the forecast area as we round out this weekend and head into the new work week. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will slide east of the region Sunday night into Monday. This is in response to a southern stream shortwave that`ll shift east out of the southern plains and into the Southeast United States. As this happens, deep moisture will begin feeding north into the region as a surface low develops and deepens over the southern plains. This surface low will eventually drag a cold front east in and through the forecast area on Tuesday. As this happens, disturbances out ahead of this system will push east through the region. This will prompt a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area beginning late Sunday night, and continuing through the daytime hours Monday, and into Monday night. It`ll also be during this time that the threat for severe storms will exist across the CWA, mainly early Monday morning and continuing into Monday evening. This, along with the potential for flash flooding. As far as the severe threat is concerned, currently models are indicating showers and storms ongoing across the CWA late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with a couple of models showing a possible complex of storms affecting the area during the early Monday morning hours. With the majority of Monday morning`s convection east of the CWA, we`ll catch a bit of a break during the afternoon hours. However during this time, our airmass will recover as moisture increases. This, coupled with favorable deep-layer wind shear, and increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates as another disturbance pushes northeast through the region, will result in showers and storms redeveloping over the forecast area late in the day on Monday and continuing into Monday evening. Damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail will be the primary concerns with the most intense storms, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will be a concern during this time as well. With precipitable H2O values approaching 2 inches, flash flooding will be possible from both high rainfall rates and the potential for west to east training convection. With 2-3 inches, and locally higher, of rain possible, localized flash flooding will be possible, especially low-lying and poor drainage areas, along with some minor river flooding. Showers will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the main upper trough moves through the region. This activity will steadily exit the CWA through the course of the afternoon as this trough exits to the northeast. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will quickly build into the region Tuesday night, with a return to quiet weather expected through at least Wednesday night. Chances for showers and storms will yet again increase across the forecast area early Thursday morning, with chances remaining in the forecast through Friday. This is as a result of yet another series of disturbances forecast to affect the forecast area. It`ll also be during this time once again, that the potential for heavy rain will likely need to monitored in upcoming forecasts. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF period but -SHRA will spread into sw by 12Z then across the southern half of the area through the aftn. Brief periods of flight restrictions wl be psbl with the -SHRAs. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 78 63 80 / 10 30 80 90 Meridian 61 81 62 77 / 0 20 60 100 Vicksburg 63 78 63 83 / 10 40 90 80 Hattiesburg 61 81 64 83 / 30 20 70 100 Natchez 63 76 64 84 / 30 40 80 80 Greenville 66 81 64 80 / 10 20 80 80 Greenwood 63 82 64 79 / 10 10 80 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SAS20/19/22