Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 161124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend bringing an extended period of very warm and dry weather
to the region. The temperatures will cool and a chance of
precipitation returns next Wednesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Tuesday: The big-picture satellite imagery early
this morning reveals clear skies across the Northwest, as we remain
under a ridge of high pressure. Friday, the Greater Spokane Area
surpassed the 60F mark (61F Downtown Spokane) as did several other
locations including from Wenatchee to Chelan, Methow Valley, L-C
Valley, and Deer Park. This weather pattern will remain in place
through Tuesday as temperatures climb to 10-14F degrees above
seasonal normal. The airmass will be warm and dry through this
period, resulting in near clear skies and dry conditions.

Wednesday through late next week: Tuesday evening we will begin
to see the upper level ridge break down with the influence of a
weather system pushing into the Northwest. While just over 60% of
ensembles maintain a solution of a Ridge centered over the Great
Basin, about a 25-30% group of ensembles highlights a weaker ridge
moving east and a trough approaching the Northwest. By
Wednesday/Thursday there are more solutions showing a trough with
varying degrees of location, strength, and timing. All have the
Ridge pushed east and much weaker, so it`s safe to say our days of
warm and clear weather will once again take a seat and allow for
unsettled, cooler weather to pass through the region.

The temperature trend by mid week next week begins a downward
(cooling) trend for several days with the potential influence of a
trough. While the ensembles begin to move a positively tilted
trough off the northern California Coast extending up into
Alberta, a very weak and subtle change to the moisture profile
will help introduce chances for precipitation. By Wednesday
evening the periphery of the Cascade slopes, northern mountains,
north Idaho, Spokane to Coeur d`Alene all carry 20-40% chance for
measureable precipitation while the Basin is shadowed. Confidence
is not very strong for precipitation given this is 5+ days out and
the solutions to break down the trough are just increasing now.
Something to watch. /Dewey

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A building ridge of high pressure will result in VFR
conditions for local and regional airfields for the next 24 hrs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HREF shows very
low probability of valley fog tonight. However, there is moderate
confidence of valley fog forming across the ID mountain valleys
early Saturday morning. This will not impact any TAF locations.
/Dewey

------------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  39  66  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  37  62  39  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  39  65  41  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       65  43  67  44  70  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       63  36  65  37  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      58  37  61  37  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        62  40  64  42  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     67  39  70  40  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      65  45  69  45  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  42  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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