Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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388 FXUS62 KTBW 061811 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 211 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Above average temperatures with moderately dry conditions continue today as a high pressure system situated in the Atlantic keeps the southeasterly flow over the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop later this afternoon/evening as the west coast sea breeze and east coast sea breeze finally collide. However, rain chances still remain low overall, with best chances east of I75. Storms that do develop will remain largely stationary as the steering flows aloft remain light. This means, localized heavy rainfall could occur. If there is enough lift, and storms are able to develop a stronger core, small hail could be possible with 500mb temps right around -9 degrees. Conditions will begin to settle overnight, with tomorrow much of the same expected. Heat remains the major concern this week with a stronger ridge likely to build in, and the Atlantic Surface ridge axis shifting further south over the area. Widespread low to mid 90s expected each afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest of the week, with limited rain chances and mostly sunny skies. Remember to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks when doing any outside activities. Moving towards the weekend, a weak frontal boundary approaches the area increasing rain chances slight Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period. SE breeze shifts onshore with sea breeze development. Only concern would be the chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms. However, these will likely develop further inland and remain stationary. Much the same tomorrow. By mid week, even less shower development expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Southeasterly flow continues, with a shift onshore as the afternoon seabreeze develops. No major marine concerns through the week as high pressure dominates conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Warm, dry conditions expected through the week, with no major fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 89 74 90 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 72 92 74 94 / 10 20 0 10 GIF 71 93 72 95 / 20 30 0 10 SRQ 72 87 72 88 / 10 10 0 0 BKV 66 91 66 91 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 76 88 77 89 / 10 10 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn