Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 151740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

Issued at 905 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include the entire
County Warning Area except for the northernmost tier of counties.
The Fire Weather section below contains additional details.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018 initial upper wave will move into the central Rockies and
deepen a sfc low across eastern colorado. Winds will increase across
the area especially this afternoon as the low deepens. The low level
thermal ridge will reside across central KS where mixing will be
greatest and hence highs should be the warmest today where highs may
approach 80 in spots. The low level moisture is lagging again and so
we will see another day of very high to extreme fire weather
conditions across the area. Difficult to pinpoint the worst conds
but feel that there will be a area in central KS where the warmest
temps and highest winds will combine to produce extreme conds. That
said...the entire area will see either very high or extreme fire
weather conds.

The low level moisture will finally arrive in the form of modest
dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 overnight. Forcing will increase as
the upper jet emerges into the Plains. Strong thetae advection in
the 850-700mb layer should help force elevated showers and t-storms
after midnight across some part of northeast KS with MUCAPE on the
order of 500-750 j/kg.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Friday, scattered showers and storms may start the day off ahead of
the approaching shortwave in area of isentropic lift. Elevated
thunderstorms are possible in the morning hours. Come the afternoon,
there is the potential for a few surfaced based storms ahead of the
surface low amid steep low level lapse rates across east central
Kansas where differential heating will be maximized (temps in the
70s). Shear and instability will be sufficient for a few strong
storms before they quickly move off into Missouri. The mid level low
and the surface low move east out of northeast Kansas during the
evening hours bringing an end to the precipitation. Lows Friday
night will fall into the 30s with most areas remaining above

The next chance of showers and storms arrives Sunday as another mid
level trough moves into the Plains from the Rockies. Deep moisture
transport looks to be focused to the southeast of the CWA into
southern Missouri and Arkansas, but there is sufficient moisture
transport across central and eastern Kansas for precipitation. The
chances for precipitation continue into Monday with rain the
predominate precipitation type. The colder air moves in the wake of
the mid level low on Monday with the column cooling enough Monday
night for a mix of rain and snow into early Tuesday morning. During
this time period the southern extension of a northern plains trough
will move across Nebraska and northern Kansas. Thermal profiles show
a return to all rain by mid morning Tuesday before the precipitation
comes to an end in the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon and into
tonight. A stratus deck will become established by later tonight,
though ceilings should remain in the VFR category through much of
the overnight hours. However, by early Friday morning, ceilings
are expected to lower to the MVFR category across the TAF sites
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing and
persisting into the day. Confidence in thunderstorms affecting any
given TAF site is too limited for inclusion in the TAFs at this
time. Gusty southerly winds are expected into this evening, before
diminishing in speed and gradually shifting to the east-
southeast through Friday morning. During the day on Friday, east-
southeast winds are expected to become gusty once again, and will
gradually shift to more southerly during the day. Also, marginal
low-level wind shear conditions will be possible tonight.


Issued at 905 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The latest observational data and model output suggest that
minimum RH around 20-25 percent will combine with wind gusts of
20-30 mph across the expanded Red Flag Warning area, which now
includes the entire forecast area except for the northernmost
tier of counties where relatively higher RH should exist. Still,
very high fire danger is expected across the northernmost tier of
counties. Very dry fuels also warrant the Red Flag Warning

Another day of very high fire danger is expected on Friday across
much of east central and parts of northeast and north central
Kansas. A surface low pressure will move across the area along with
a frontal boundary which is expected the shift the winds from the
southeast to the southwest in the afternoon hours. This will bring
in lower dew points and drop afternoon RH into the 21 to 27 percent
range. In addition winds of 15 to 22 mph with gusts around 30 mph
will be possible in the afternoon.


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020>024-026-



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