Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 210453
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Upper shortwave trough is observed over the central plains this
afternoon, while the h85 boundary is oriented southwest to northeast
from north central TX through southeast Kansas. Convergence along
the boundary aided by broad upper lift has contributed to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering through the afternoon.
Subsidence is increasing, however, from the northwest and should
bring an end to rainfall across the area by sunset. Skies remain
mostly cloudy overnight with perhaps some patchy fog and mist
developing in low lying areas towards sunrise. Upper trough exits
towards the northeast tomorrow as sfc high pressure builds
southward. Skies become mostly sunny while temperatures rebound back
around 80 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Broad cyclonic flow focuses over the southwest CONUS through the
first half of the week, bringing occasional thunderstorm chances to
the area beginning late Monday night into Tuesday. Both the GFS and
NAM are hinting at an embedded wave coming off the high plains while
the ECMWF is weaker and further north into Nebraska. Forecast
certainty is a bit higher based on consensus for a stronger wave
coming out of the southwest Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this
time, it appears wind flow through the column is fairly weak despite
the ample instability. Any severe convection that develops would
be isolated at best. A northern stream wave ejects across the
northern CONUS Friday and Saturday, pushing a frontal boundary
southward into the area and focusing additional chances for
thunderstorms. The front is progged to push through Saturday night
with quieter conditions anticipated on Sunday. Temperatures
throughout the extended period are on the above normal side given
the 850 mb thermal ridge spreading eastward on Tuesday and mixing
down to the sfc in the afternoons. Highs in the low 90s are common
until the front passes on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Not a lot of change from prev forecast as some BR has already
developed. For TOP and FOE, think stratus will be more favored so
keep VSBY at 3SM or better. Some breaks in the clouds near MHK
could cause some IFR VSBY. Conditions should improve through the
day Monday. Am a little slower with the improvement than some of
the objective guidance since the surface ridge axis looks to take
its time pushing to the east.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters



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