Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 152306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Clouds and flurries continue to move eastward across the forecast
area this afternoon, with temperatures well below normal in the
30s this mid Sunday afternoon in brisk northwesterly winds. Winds
diminish considerably through the overnight hours as surface high
pressure is ushered southward behind the elongated upper trof to
the east. Clear skies and light winds will bring another night of
cold overnight lows with temperatures well below the freezing
mark, near 20 in north central Kansas with middle 20s in the east.
Much of the day remains in a lighter wind regime, eventually
coming around to the southeast by late afternoon. Lighter winds
will keep the boundary layer shallow and high temperatures mixed
to the lower 50s northeast to the middle to upper 50s in the far
southwest counties

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

For the period Tuesday through Sunday, only one day (Tuesday)
brings forecast temperatures at or above normal. Otherwise the
cool trend continues for the rest of the week into the weekend.

Winds pick up by late in the day Tuesday as the next system
approaches from the west. GFS lifts the warm front into our
northern counties by late afternoon and brings much of the area
into the 70s south, with middle 60s north of the boundary. Surface
low rides across the northern state boundary through the evening
hours, and along with it comes a dry front and a strong wind shift
from the northwest that continue through much of the day.
Sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts 35-40mph will likely make
high temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s feel much

Quick reprieve from the wind between systems on Thursday and into
Friday with highs around 60, before the next system takes aim for
the area in time for the weekend. Current progs would bring the
low across the southern plains and keep us in a colder rain
through the day Saturday into Sunday before moving out for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Precipitation types are mostly rain, with
better chances for snow or a mix to the north of the state and
thunder to the south of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected through the evening.
There is a chance with the loss of surface heating and boundary
layer mixing that the ceilings could lower to MVFR before
scattering out around 06z. There is some dry air indicated on
satellite imagery over NE and SD that is moving southeastward,
which should mark the end of the stratus.


Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Winds diminish into the overnight hours, becoming light northwest
then light and variable through the afternoon hours, eventually
becoming a light southeast by late afternoon. This will make for
only fair to poor smoke dispersion.


Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Record temperature information for Sunday, April 15:

Location  Record Lowest Maximum (Year)
Topeka    45F (1993)
Concordia   42F (1945)

Record temperature information for Monday, April 16:

Location  Record Lowest Minimum (Year)
Topeka         26F (1953)
Concordia      25F (1953)




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