270
FXUS64 KTSA 102301
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Another nice afternoon with temperatures in the 70s with light
north winds and a few passing high clouds. Cool conditions
overnight with lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
A brief warm up expected on Saturday as upper ridge shifts over
the southern Plains ahead of upper low moving through the Four
Corners region.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night as upper system approaches from the west.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday night into Monday
morning with PWATs generally in the 1.25-1.50 inch range. Several
of the GEFS runs also support the potential for higher rainfall
amounts compared to current deterministic solution. In addition,
at least a marginal severe threat will be possible across southeast
Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas where higher instability will
reside.

Drier conditions expected into Tuesday behind departing upper
system. A broad upper trough approaches from the west on Thursday,
with a few embedded smaller scale disturbances. Another round of
scattered showers/thunderstorms forecast with locally heavy
rainfall again possible during this time. Stayed close to NBM
guidance through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with a few passing mid and high
clouds. Sfc winds will remain below impactful levels.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  56  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   82  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   81  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  52  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   78  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   76  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   78  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   78  53  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78  55  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   81  56  80  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30