434
FXAK67 PAJK 141357
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
557 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Active weather continues across the panhandle
through Tuesday. The southern half of the panhandle will see more
sustained, stratiform precipitation as an atmospheric river moves
through, albeit with the greatest QPF totals likely to be over
Haida Gwaii. The northern half will continue to feature some
embedded convective elements as onshore flow proves to be the
primary driving force through the day - though this will result in
some relative lulls between heavier bands of precip. The decaying
low over the northern gulf responsible for the current weather
pattern will slowly move E through Tuesday, contributing to the
continued chances of precip even as the system moving through the
S panhandle departs overnight. Much of the panhandle, especially
the northern and central panhandle, could potentially see drier
weather and some clearing skies by the latter half of Wednesday.
The forecast itself remains largely on track, with only minimal
changes made.

.LONG TERM...The primary feature of the mid range forecast is a
weak atmospheric river (AR) Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately
for many in the southern panhandle, the main hose of moisture is
looking increasingly likely to miss our AOR, and instead mainly
impact Haida Gwaii. While there are still indications that places
like the western side of PoW Island and Ketchikan may get
substantial rainfall, the probabilities of this has gone down
based on the run to run ensemble models between yesterday. The
higher weighted models, the GEFS and the GEPS, which previously
were in lock step run to run, appear to have shifted the bulk of
the precipitation southward to match the EPS and ECMWF. In
addition, any additional surface lows being generated off of the
potent jet streak aloft looks to impact Haida Gwaii. While
Ketchikan, Hydaburg, and Craig may see some enhanced northerly
winds as a developing system passes south, the overall threat has
decreased. Again, while it is possible that heavier rains and
winds could impact the southern panhandle, the likelihood is now
lower.

Finally, looking late Thursday into Friday, a ridge begins to
build aloft with a surface ridge in the outer gulf. From this
setup, a short lived drier pattern will extend over the panhandle
with some possible break in clouds, particularly for the northern
half of the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12 Wednesday/...A post-frontal onshore-flow
showery regime will continue to provide primarily MVFR category
CIG and VIS flight conditions over most of the Panhandle with
periodic rises into low-end VFR category through the TAF period.
The lower flight conditions will be associated with the heavier
showers. SFC winds and LLWS will remain benign through the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...JLC

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