Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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734
FXUS63 KDLH 272107
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Warm and muggy conditions continue for the region this afternoon.
It was not as hot as it could have been today, as cloud cover and
debris from last night`s MCS over North Dakota kept temperatures
down somewhat. This has also reduced our instability and shear as
of this afternoon, so convection that developed earlier over
eastern North Dakota has weakened, and I do not expect it to
develop again. Thus...I think we are going to have to wait until
this evening for the Low level jet to develop once again, and
impinge on the 850mb baroclinic zone draped from southeastern
North Dakota east across my southern CWA to just south of Lake
Superior. We should see convection develop sometime between 8PM
and midnight, generally along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota,
which should spread east overnight before either diminishing or
moving out of the forecast area during the early morning hours.
While there will be a fairly decent amount of instability
available, the shear and the nocturnal and elevated nature of this
convection should keep the risk for severe storms to marginal at
the most, and am more concerned with training storms which may
produce localized flash flooding. Temperatures will be warmer than
last night, with lows only in the high 50s and 60s. Monday morning
the convection should move east of the area fairly early, but we
will have some clouds and showers lingering into mid morning. This
should allow us to have clouds clear out and let us heat up during
the afternoon, with highs pushing into the 80s to low 90s for the
4th day in a row. Am not expecting to reach records again Monday,
but we are in that territory. Current records are in the Climate
section tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

An active weather pattern remains in place for much of the
upcoming week with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
and a gradual cooling trend expected.

An upper-level ridge over the western Great Lakes will be in
place Monday night with a trough of low pressure to the west over
the Rockies. The ridge will gradually move eastward and amplify
through Thursday while the trough slowly weakens and lifts
northeastward. Several shortwaves and associated vorticity maxima
will pivot around the base of the trough and lift toward the
Northland, setting the stage for several rounds of thunderstorms.
Convection upstream over the Plains will also add to the forecast
challenges, as any perturbations caused by the storms propagates
toward the region. Thunderstorms are forecast Monday night
through Thursday evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Monday night through Tuesday night. Large hail, damaging
winds, and torrential rainfall will be the greatest hazards
during that time. Wednesday continues to feature the best chance
of widespread rainfall for the Northland with the remnants of
Alberto drifting toward the Great Lakes. High pressure returns
for Friday with dry and quiet weather expected. Another system
may move through the region on Saturday, which would bring
another round of showers and storms to the Northland.

Temperatures will continue above normal through the week, with a
general cooling trend expected. Summer-like warmth is forecast to
continue Tuesday and Wednesday with highs generally in the 80s.
Wednesday will shade a few degrees cooler than Tuesday with
clouds and precipitation loitering during the day. Continued
cooler on Thursday with highs still above normal in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Seasonal temperatures return for Friday and Saturday
with highs in the low 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Remnants of overnight and early morning storms were moving
through the Northland this afternoon. The weakening trend observed
in regional radar data is expected to continue into the
afternoon. A brief shower may affect DLH and HYR. Another round of
thunderstorms is forecast tonight and should affect HIB and DLH.
The showers and storms may affect INL and BRD this evening, and if
they hold together, HYR Monday morning. The storms depart by mid-
morning with VFR conditions expected through 18Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Record Highs for May 27...

Duluth................86 in 1969 - Old record,
                      New record high of 88 as of 4 PM.
International Falls...94 in 1969
                      High of 80 as of 4 PM.
Brainerd..............88 in 2006
                      High of 85 as of 4 PM.
Hibbing...............89 in 1980, 1969
                      High of 82 as of 4 PM.
Ashland...............91 in 1969
                      High of 88 as of 4 PM.

Record high temperatures for May 28.

Duluth................91 in 1934.
International Falls...92 in 1919.
Brainerd..............95 in 2006, 1969, 1934
Hibbing...............89 in 2006, 1969
Ashland...............93 in 2006, 1969

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  79  54  75 /  60  20  20  20
INL  57  80  58  87 /  20  10  30  30
BRD  64  87  63  88 /  20  20  20  40
HYR  63  88  62  89 /  30  20  30  30
ASX  56  76  52  78 /  60  20  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
CLIMATE...WFO DLH



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