Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271047
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
547 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Clouds are on the increase from the thunderstorm complex over
North Dakota this morning. Bumped up the sky cover as a result.
The morning fog should erode quickly with the rising sun. Made
some other minor changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Surface high pressure was centered on top of the forecast area at
0730Z. A clear sky was noted via satellite, along with an
expansive area of lake induced fog that had moved inland from Lake
Superior near the head of the lake. However, that lake fog was
dissipating/retreating. Patchy fog was occurring in isolated parts
of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Expect this fog
to dissipate as well, as some drier air is beginning to affect the
region and mixing begins. A northwest flow aloft was also
affecting the area early this morning with a piece of vorticity
moving through the region. Nothing will come from this vort max as
the atmosphere is dry overhead. As the day progresses, upper
level ridging becomes aligned with the surface ridging for a rain
free day.

The ridge buckles a bit tonight as some embedded vort maxes in the
flow aloft move along the international border. These vort maxes
will initiate some thunderstorms that will affect the area. Models
are having a difficult time resolving the timing as well as location
of this activity. Will gradually increase pops from west to east
tonight in an attempt to resolve these differences. The NAM is
hinting at an MCS forming along the international border area, while
the other models are more diffuse, and in some cases further south
with some robust storms. Regardless, this activity will be moving
along at a good clip with effective bulk shear in the 40 to 50 knot
range. The stronger storms will contain some hail, gusty winds and
heavy rain. PWATS will be around 1.5 inches.

The upper ridging attempts to re-establish itself on Monday. A
mainly dry day is expected, but some isolated showers or storms may
occur near Lake Superior as additional weak vort maxes drift nearby.
Max temps today and Memorial Day will still be on the hot side with
80s to lower 90s common.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The warm and humid weather pattern for the Northland will continue
for much of the week with chances of showers and storms. The period
will begin with a mid-level ridge over the Upper Midwest,
a stalled front across the Northland, an upper low the Rocky
Mountains in the Montana/Wyoming area, and developing surface low
pressure in the High Plains. Showers and storms are possible across
the Northland Monday night once the cap breaks near and north of the
stalled front, and aided by any shortwaves lifting into the region
from the southwest. The upper ridge will shift east of the Northland
Tuesday, and the low pressure to the west will move to the
Upper Midwest by Wednesday night and Thursday. Shortwaves
lifting north through the region in the lead up to the main
upper low could trigger showers and storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. The greatest chances of rain will be Wednesday night and
Thursday when the somewhat vertically stacked low moves
through the Northern Plains and/or northern Minnesota into Canada.
This low should provide ample large-scale forcing for ascent for
showers and storms.

Friday may finally bring a period of cooler and clearer weather when
high pressure moves into the Northland. The break should be short-
lived. Another area of low pressure will bring warm and humid air
into the Northland Saturday, with the potential for more showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

An active weather pattern will persist across the Northland
throughout the next few days, as warm and humid air continues to
settle into the region. Some showers and thunderstorms will be
possible from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, especially
across the north. While we expect largely VFR conditions during
this TAF cycle, there could be some MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s in
association with thunderstorms. In addition, there could be some
localized fog overnight, especially at KHIB.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Record Highs for May 27...

Duluth................86 in 1969
International Falls...94 in 1969

Record Lows for May 28...

Duluth................32 in 1965
International Falls...27 in 1947


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  89  65  81  56 /  10  50  10  30
INL  86  61  82  58 /  10  40  10  30
BRD  91  67  89  63 /  30  30  10  30
HYR  93  65  90  63 /   0  30  10  20
ASX  88  61  80  53 /   0  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...DAP


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