Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Mostly dry conditions will continue through the day Tuesday,
although more cloud cover and even some small chances of rain
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
particularly over northwest Wisconsin. A weak cold front will dive
through the region this afternoon, which will support some small
chances of rain showers over northeast Minnesota. Concurrent with
the front, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject from a
longwave trough located over the Intermountain West, and translate
across central Minnesota. The forcing from the front and
shortwave will provide support for the rain showers, mainly over
northwest Wisconsin. Moreover, some instability will be present to
provide some thunderstorms, with most-unstable CAPE values
between a few hundred up to 1000 J/kg possible, per the 14.00z NAM
and GFS models. The big question remains if any rain will reach
the surface as we still have a dry layer of air lingering near the
surface, with both the RAP and the NAM indicating dry air up to
5000 feet. While the high-resolution mesoscale models are
indicating some healthy rain showers forming over the southern
half of our forecast area, kept the QPF very low due to the amount
of dry air near the surface. As far as fire weather is concerned,
despite the deep mixing indicated in the soundings (up to around
7000 feet per the RAP and NAM soundings), the low-level wind
profile appears to be just too weak to warrant any
headlines/Special Weather Statements, although minimum humidities
over the northern half of the forecast area will dip into the 15
to 25 percent range. Instead, will mention the elevated fire
weather risk in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, with northwest
winds possibly gusting up to 20 mph, but generally expected to be
in the 15 to 20 mph range.

Tonight, the shortwave and cold front moves out of the region,
diminishing our chances of showers/t-storms this evening. Cold air
advection and clearing skies tonight should lead to a night of
decent radiational cooling, with overnight lows ranging from the
upper 30s north to the lower to middle 40s south.

Tuesday looks to be very dry and mostly sunny. A lake breeze
should develop, leading to cooler temperatures along Lake
Superior. There could be a window Tuesday afternoon of near
critical fire weather conditions, but mainly over Koochiching and
Itasca counties as southwest winds could gust up to 25 mph for a
time in those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

The dry weather pattern will continue during the first part of the
long term period, but a major change in the upper level pattern will
occur between the last part of the week and early in the weekend. A
back door cold front will sag into the Minnesota Arrowhead region on
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers to
the northeast part of Minnesota on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and
across the north and northeast part of the region on Wednesday
night. Low relative humidity values will continue into the middle
part of the week, and we have dropped dewpoint and humidity values
from Wednesday into Thursday. The EC/GFS/GEM are all in fairly good
agreement in bringing a pattern change to the area from Thursday
into Saturday night. The chance of precipitation will gradually
increase from west to east during that time. The models actually
indicate the potential for some fairly decent rainfall amounts,
which we could definitely use. The weather should once again dry out
on Sunday, as the system moves off to the east. The warmest day of
the long term period is expected to be on Wednesday, with highs in
the 80s. The coolest day will likely be on Saturday, with highs in
the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

The Northland will be in between high pressure to the north and
low pressure to the south. This will mean there will be some
clouds across the south. There could even be a few sprinkles or a
rain shower this afternoon and evening. The best chance of seeing
this would be in KHYR, and perhaps at KBRD and KDLH. VFR
conditions are expected throughout the period.


DLH  78  43  64  48 /  20   0   0   0
INL  75  37  74  52 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  80  45  75  51 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  79  45  74  47 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  78  43  62  43 /  10  10   0   0




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