Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 241137
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
637 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A weak cold front entering far northwest WI will move across the
area today. Although moisture will be sparse with this system, a
fairly potent short-wave trof and steep mid-level lapse rates of
6.5 to 7.5 c/km may support a small chance of showers during the
afternoon and evening. High temperatures should be in the middle
to upper 50s in far north central WI and along the Lake Michigan
shoreline, and in the 60s elsewhere. Lows tonight should drop into
the middle to upper 20s northwest, and the lower to middle 30s
across the rest of the forecast area.

On Wednesday, sunny skies and deep mixing will support highs in
the middle 50s to around 60 range, except around 50 near the Lake
Michigan shoreline.

Gusty north winds on Lake Michigan will result in conditions
hazardous to small craft tonight through midday Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Fairly quiet weather pattern expected into early next week. The
only chance for rain would be on Thursday into Thursday as a weak
cold front moves across the area. It is possible that snow could
mix in at the very end across the north. There is a small chance
of rain showers on Friday across the north with another weak
disturbance. Rain chances may need to be increased over the next
few days if the model continue the current trends.

Some differences noted between the ECMWF and MEX mos guidance
values on the warmup over the weekend. Split the difference
between the colder ECMWF and the warmer MEX guidance values. It
appears Monday will be the warmest day of the year with highs in
the 70s away from the bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A weak cold front and associated upper level disturbance will move
through the area today, and produce isolated/scattered light
showers during the afternoon and evening. Will add VCSH during
the preferred period at each TAF site. Clouds will thicken during
the day, but ceilings should remain well into the VFR category.
Clearing skies are anticipated as the system shifts east this
evening.

Have added some LLWS to the MTW TAF site this evening, as
northeast winds increase to 35 to 40 knots just above the
surface.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

River levels continue to rise from the snow melt runoff. A few
rivers have already reached minor flood stage, with many others
forecast to reach or exceed bankfull this week. There are a few
chances of rain this week, this afternoon/evening and then again
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Neither system will
generate much rainfall, so runoff will mainly be from melting
snow. The upcoming weekend looks dry as well.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
HYDROLOGY......Kieckbusch



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