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204
FXUS63 KGRB 161124 AAA
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
624 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

There has been a little bit of an uptick in radar returns during
the past couple hours, with some SHSN now reducing VSBYS to 1-2SM
in east-central Wisconsin. Reports from across the area indicate
recovery from the weekend snowstorm has been very slow. Will
extend the Winter Weather Advisory through to noon.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Just some lingering light precipitation today into tonight, then
another round of rain and snow Wednesday into Wednesday night. But
that round of precipitation will not be nearly as heavy as this
past weekend`s event. Unseasonably cold today, followed by a slow
moderation in temperatures.

The upper flow across North America will remain split throughout
the period, but the southern stream will gradually weaken. The
next southern stream cyclone will reach the area mid-week. It
won`t be as strong as the last, and will cross the area much
faster. The following cyclone next weekend will probably pass
south of the area.

Quieter weather today will allow for clean-up from the weekend
storm. After the mid-week system, precipitation chances look
minimal for the rest of the period. The overall result should be
near to below normal amounts for the period. Temperatures will
start out unseasonably cold and then slowly moderate, edging back
close to normal by the end of the period.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

An intense cyclone that produced the weekend snowstorm will pull
away to the east today. Scattered snow showers and flurries will
linger across the area into tonight, and possibly into early
Tuesday in the Lake Superior Snowbelt. A lack of mid-level
moisture will also result in some freezing drizzle this morning,
but the impact of that should be minimal given all the snow on the
roads. Opted to leave the Winter Weather Advisory run through to
its scheduled 12Z expiration due to the lingering poor travel from
the snowstorm. But winds dimininishing and backing NW have ended
the potential for ice shoves, flooding, and erosion near the lake
and bay, so dropped the lakeshore hazard headlines a couple hours
ago. Went a little below guidance for highs today due to the
widespread deep snowcover. Highs today should end up 15 to 25 F
degrees below normal.

There should be enough winds and clouds tonight to hold off what
would otherwise probably be a huge temperature drop due to the
fresh deep snowcover. Quiet weather is expected Tuesday as high
pressure ridges toward the region. Again trended a little colder
than guidance for highs due to the snowcover.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Expect little precipitation and below normal temperatures through
the weekend. The best chance for precipitation is with a system
that is forecast to pass south of the area, possibly bringing
rain, snow or a wintry mix Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
best chance for precipitation looks to be across central and east
central Wisconsin but the models track the surface and 500 mb lows
a bit farther east than they did 24 hours ago. The system should
begin to impact central and east central Wisconsin during the
early part of the morning on Wednesday and there could be up to a
quarter inch of snow in parts of central Wisconsin, but warming
temperatures should cause any snow or wintry mix to change to rain
by mid morning. Some snow or wintry mix is possible again on
Wednesday night as the boundary layer cools, but the system should
be winding down after 06Z. Will have to wait and see if the
models continue their northward trend with this system.

A gradual warming trend is forecast throughout the week and
weekend, but highs on Sunday are still forecast to be about 5 to
10 degrees colder than normal at most locations.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Ceilings were rather chaotic across the area this morning, ranging
from LIFR to VFR. Expect those to settle into the MVFR category
during the day, and probably through tonight in most areas. The
north may drop to IFR for a time tonight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Skowronski