Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 160434
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1134 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Winds and snow diminished during the late afternoon hours so have
replaced the winter storm and blizzard warnings with a winter
weather advisory for tonight. Snow showers might bring another
1 to 3 inches of snow, and there will continue to be some blowing
and drifting of snow through the evening hours.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Historic winter storm brought 15 to 30 inches of snow to much of
the region this weekend. Several more inch of snow is possible
this evening as storm continues to slowly move away from the area.

Since there is still some moderate to heavy snow ongoing and there
were gusty northeast winds across the blizzard warning area, will
continue the blizzard warning for now. Once the heavier snow exits
the region and the gusty winds subside some more, the blizzard
warning will probably be cancelled or downgraded some time this
evening.

Light snow or freezing drizzle is expected at times tonight as
the mid level moisture may be scoured out at times. The freezing
drizzle should have negligible impacts due to the recent heavy
snow. Cold cyclonic flow will bring a chance of snow showers on
Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be around 15 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The system that moved through this weekend will still be winding
its way out of the region Monday night into Tuesday morning,
although additional accumulations are expected to be minimal.

After this system leaves, attention turns to the next system
arriving on Wednesday. Models have trended consistently for a
morning to early afternoon arrival time, although they differ in
the extent of the warm air. Currently put a chance to see some
mixed precipitation into the forecast early, changing over to
mostly rain briefly in the afternoon as the warm air gets more
established, before returning to snow. Snow is likely to be the
dominant precipitation type overnight into Thursday, although
accumulations should only be around a few inches. Quiet conditions
follow through the remainder of the long term period.

Temperature wise, we`ll be staying in the middle 30s through the
midweek before warming toward the middle 40s. Some uncertainty on
the high temperatures is expected with the recent snowpack, so
trended a degree or two colder in most areas towards the end of
the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Light snow will continue at times tonight and Monday, but additional
accumulations should be only an inch or two at most. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected tonight, with most MVFR conditions Monday.
Drifting snow is possible in many areas where there is significant
wind.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Only some minor low land flooding was noted near the boat landing
in Green Bay so far from the bay of Green Bay. Only some low land
flooding was noted on the Suamico River.

After a snow less winter for much of the area, the risk of
river flooding has increased as precipitation totals over the
last 3 days were in the 1 to 3 inch range with locally higher
amounts. More rain and snow is on the way for Wednesday into
Wednesday night.
&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Historic winter storm brought 15 to 30 inches of snow with locally
higher amounts possible (near Tigerton in Shawano County?). This
storm will go down in the record books as the largest April
snowstorm on record and more than likely one of the largest of
all-time at Green Bay, Rhinelander and Wausau. As of 1 pm, Green
Bay recorded 20.6 inches of snow. This eclipses the old April
snowstorm record of 11.0 inches set on April 4-5, 1977. The 20.6
inches of snow also makes it the third largest snowstorm on
record behind 29.0 inches set on March 1-2, 1888 and the 23.1
inches set on January 8-9, 1889. At least an inch or two has
fallen since 1 pm, thus when the official observation is taken at
7 pm tonight this could become the 2nd largest snowstorm on record
at Green Bay. Stay tuned! As you can imagine, the monthly April
snowfall records at Green Bay, Rhinelander and Wausau have been
shattered.

To put this in perspective, Green Bay received 31.4 inches of
snow from October 1st to March 31st. As of 1 pm today, Green Bay
received 33.1 inches for the month of April or more than half the
winter snowfall.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ022-039-040-
074.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........RDM
SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......RDM
HYDROLOGY......Eckberg
CLIMATE........Eckberg



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