Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 170824
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
324 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers will continue over the snowbelt region
  of northern Wisconsin through Monday morning. Snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches are expected over northern Vilas County by
  Monday morning, with little to no accumulations elsewhere.

- Northwest to north-northwest winds will continue to gust to 20
  to 30 mph through this evening before dissipating overnight.

- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Monday

Cold cyclonic flow entrenched across the western Great Lakes along
with mid level PV anomalies pivoting through the region is
producing light snow and flurries across northeast Wisconsin early
this morning. Further north, added moisture from Lake Superior is
producing steadier snow showers across northern Vilas County. A
upper trough is slated to move through the region today, which
will keep the chance for light snow showers or flurries at times
along with blustery conditions. A continued tight pressure
gradient will keep conditions blustery along with colder
conditions; although temperatures will still be above normal.
Snowfall amounts are expected to be de minimis across much of the
region given the lack of steady snow, save for Vilas County where
the northern portion of the county could see an inch or two of
lake effect snow. High today are expected to range from the middle
to upper 20s across the north, to the lower 30s across central and
east-central Wisconsin.

The main shortwave embedded in the cyclonic flow will push off to
the east this evening, which should end the light snow and
flurries across much of the region. Further north, the lake effect
snow will continue with a favorable fetch with snow chances
diminishing overnight given the lack of forcing from the
aforementioned shortwave providing dynamics. Snowfall amounts
could accumulate around another inch of snow, mainly across
northern Vilas County. Lows tonight are expected to range from the
middle teens across the north, to the lower 20s across east-
central Wisconsin.

One final shortwave will push through the region on Monday
morning, with the cyclonic flow pushing southeast and the mid
levels flattening out across the western Great Lakes region. In
addition, dry air will advect in behind the departing shortwave.
This will combine to end the lake effect snow across far north-
central Wisconsin, with dry weather expected Monday afternoon. The
drier air and sinking motion could also bring some breaks in the
clouds across central and east-central Wisconsin at times on
Monday. Additional snowfall amounts across far northwestern Vilas
County could reach a few tenths before coming to an end Monday
morning. Highs on Monday will be a little warmer; ranging from the
upper 20s across the north, to the upper 30s across east-central
and northeast Wisconsin.

Long Term...Monday Night Through Saturday

Pattern for this up coming week will be more typical of early
spring in comparison to the mild weather that dominated the first
half of March. South westerly winds Tuesday morning will bring
temperatures back up into upper 30s to upper 40s across the
region, but as winds veer northwesterly behind a cold front
progged to pass through the area Tuesday afternoon temperatures
for the remainder of the week will trend slightly cooler than
normal. High temperatures for the remainder of the week are
expected to range from the mid 20s to low 30s across the north and
mid 30s to around 40 degrees across central, northeast, and east-
central WI. Overnight temperatures are expected to drop well
below freezing each night with most nights seeing lows in the mid
teens to mid 20s, and even cooler in the sandy soil regions of
northern and central WI.

In terms of precipitation during the extended period ensemble
models are showing a few chances of light snow. First chance is
expected to come late Monday night into Tuesday morning as a quick
moving mid-level shortwave and warm air advection regime move
across the state. Best chance for light snow with this system will
be across northern and northeastern WI. Minor snow accumulations
will be possible, but should remain well under 1". As winds
become northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday and lake surface to
850 mb delta Ts remain about 15 to 20 degrees a few rounds of
light lake effect snow may be possible, mainly impacting far
northwest Vilas County. The next chance for more wide
precipitation doesn`t look to come until the end of next week,
however, there is still considerable uncertainty with this system
as models as models have struggled to pin down the timing, track
and intensity. Ensemble guidance also suggests another system may
trail behind and bring another round of precipitation for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Upper level disturbances and cold northwest winds flowing across
Lake Superior will produce BKN-OVC skies through Sunday night.
Most of the forecast area will have VFR ceilings from 3500-6000
feet AGL, with scattered flurries at times. MVFR ceilings are
expected at times across north central WI through the TAF period,
along with lake-effect snow showers. The snow showers will be
most numerous in Vilas County, where IFR vsbys will likely occur
at times. Gusty northwest winds will decrease slightly overnight,
increase again by mid to late Sunday morning, then diminish a bit
by sunset Sunday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/GK
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch


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