Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 230346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1046 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The Hudson Bay high continued to dominate the weather pattern
this afternoon. Temperatures as of mid afternoon were in the
middle 30s to lower 40s.

For tonight, clear skies will prevail across the region. Pretty
much went with persistence on low temperatures for tonight since
little has changed. On Friday, clouds will be on the increase,
especially during the afternoon hours. Did not stray far from
guidance for highs on Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The mean flow looks to become increasingly more amplified starting
this weekend as a deep upper trough hits the West Coast and
eventually turns into a strong upper low over the southwest CONUS
for much of next week. Meanwhile, an upper ridge is forecast to
move from the central CONUS to the eastern CONUS and hold steady
there for much of next week. The main forecast issue for the
extended forecast to be the timing/associated precipitation with a
frontal passage Monday/Tuesday. Once we get into a southwest flow
aloft (Sunday), temperatures will be above normal thereafter.

An area of low pressure is forecast to move from the central
Plains toward central MO Friday night. High pressure anchored near
Hudson Bay, will continue to feed dry air southwest into WI and
set up a battle between incoming moisture and the dry air in place
over northeast WI. It still appears that the dry air will win out
as the majority of the models keep any precipitation to our south.
Central WI should still see clouds from this system, while
northeast portions of the state remain mostly clear. Min
temperatures to range from the middle to upper teens north, to the
middle 20s south. The surface low tracks southeast, farther away
from WI on Saturday. This leaves the southwest fringe of the
eastern Canada high pressure over WI bringing mostly sunny skies
and seasonal temperatures over the forecast area. We will have to
contend with gusty east-northeast winds, especially over eastern
WI. Max temperatures for Saturday to range from the middle to
upper 30s near Lake MI, upper 30s to around 40 degrees north and
lower to middle 40s south.

Little changes synoptically going into Saturday night with the
high pressure in place. The winds will diminish a bit during the
overnight hours and this would allow temperatures to cool once
again. Look for readings to be from 10 to 15 above north-central,
lower to middle 20s east-central WI. As the surface high slides
more toward the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday, the winds over
northeast WI will veer to the southeast. There will also be some
moderation in temperatures aloft as 8H readings reach 0C. Plenty
of sunshine is anticipated and this should allow max temperatures
to reach near 40 degrees near Lake MI, lower 40s eastern WI and
lower to middle 40s for central WI. There could be a few upper 40s
west of the Fox Valley.

Quiet conditions to persist through Sunday night, although there
should be a gradual increase in clouds later at night as a new
system begins to organize over the central High Plains. As this
system continues to organize on Monday, winds are expected to veer
south-southeast and start to tap gulf moisture. While clouds
should continue to thicken during the day, there remains questions
as to how fast the atmosphere will be able to saturate. Eastern WI
looks too dry yet to allow any rain to reach the surface, however
central WI may be able to saturate enough later Monday afternoon
to at least bring a chance of rain to that part of the forecast
area. Max temperatures to range from the lower to middle 40s near
Lake MI/north-central, to around 50 degrees over parts of central

The atmosphere is progged to saturate sufficiently by Monday night
to allow precipitation to overspread all of northeast WI. Plenty
of moisture to be in place as PW values surpass one inch over most
of the area to couple with increasing lift/forcing. The main
question for Monday night is precipitation type as temperatures
will be slow to drop with thick clouds and southeast winds. May
need to bump up temperatures a couple of degrees which would slow
the transition to snow across the north until late Monday night.
The precipitation would continue into Tuesday as a cold front
pushes through WI. Any snow cover or mixed precipitation would
transition back to rain as temperatures warm. Despite the
anticipated clouds/rain, the mild start to the day will still
allow max temperatures to reach the middle to upper 40s north/
lakeside, upper 40s to lower 50s south.

Light rain or a mix will come to an end Tuesday night as the
system pulls away from the region and a weak area of high pressure
builds into WI for Wednesday. Have removed the pops from the
forecast for Wednesday and bumped max temperatures up into the
middle to upper 40s near Lake MI, upper 40s north and upper 40s to
lower 50s south. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to
dig southeast across the northern Plains Wednesday night and push
toward the western Great Lakes on Thursday. If this system keeps
its current timing, expect to see clouds on the increase Thursday
with perhaps a small pop over parts of central WI by Thursday

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Mostly clear skies and light winds will provide great
flying weather tonight through Friday night.



SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......RDM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.