Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
514 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Shortwave trough continues to slide southeast across the western
Dakotas this afternoon, with the main PV anomaly expected to
remain southwest of our area. Hence, the best forcing is certainly
going to remain to the southwest as well, but we still expect to
see some light snow showers tonight in addition to some fog

The feature of note over our area is the inverted trough which
will work through the area tonight. Expect the light snow showers
and fog development out ahead of the wind shift. Not confident in
widespread snow showers, looks to be more scattered in nature, so
really don`t expect much in the way of accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

The big story in the long term period is the warmer weather for
the end of the week. From Sunday night through the end of the
week, conditions will remain dry and highs will be near normal. A
back door cold front will drop in from the northeast across
eastern MN and western WI Monday night. Current forecast calls for
lows in the mid to upper teens, but if this signal continues,
wouldn`t be surprised to see lows in the single digits Tuesday

Things look similar to previous runs for late in the week with
large trough coming onshore across the western CONUS, pushing a
ridge eastward over us, and continuous southwest flow will see
temperatures climb above normal and quickly erode our snow pack.
There are some PoPs in the forecast for next weekend, and it
depends on the path of a developing system that looks to come
through the Upper Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Didn`t make any significant changes to the previous forecast.
Inverted trough will slowly work east across the area into Sunday.
Visibilities and ceilings will deteriorate tonight as the trough
moves into the area, with some light snow across the southern
portion of the area. The main restriction to visibility tonight
and Sunday will be fog given the boost in low level moisture and
light winds. We shouldn`t see any real improvement until the
surface ridge and drier northwest flow starts to move in later
tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Main items of uncertainty are how long the lower ceilings
and visibilities will stick around and how low things will get.
Didn`t have much reason to deviate from the previous forecast, so
the main change was to include the development of VFR conditions
Sunday evening.

.Sunday overnight...VFR. Northwest wind 5 kt or less.
.Monday...Brief MVFR possible with a chance of snow showers.
Northwest wind around 10 kt.
.Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. Southwest wind less than 10 kt.




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