Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Widespread shower and weak thunderstorm activity has continued
through the overnight hours. At 05Z, there were numerous reports
of 1+ inches of 24-hour precipitation; some observation sites,
such as EAU, received 2+ inches. The surface cold front that
provided lift for the convective activity is now positioned over
South Central MN through Northeastern WI this morning, and high
pressure is entering Central MN. The surface boundary is expected
to continue progressing southward through the morning. Drier and
cooler air in the boundary layer will begin filtering in from the
north, while the mid to upper levels remain moist with ridging in
place. We can expect mid to high level cloud cover with high
temperatures this afternoon reaching the upper 70s with dew points
in the upper 50s across the northern portion of the CWA to upper
60s across the Southern MN.

Convection is expected to begin along the surface boundary this
afternoon in Northern IA and move north. So, there are chances for
showers and weak thunderstorms across Southern MN with the best
chances being during the evening. Overnight into Tuesday, the
convective activity is expected to continue with better precip
chances in Central MN as shortwave will aid in convection
development. Precipitable water values today through tonight will
be lower than the weekend, but still high near 1.5-2 inches.
Therefore, a few areas of moderate to heavy rain are possible
through Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

A rather uneventful pattern is expected to develop for the Upper
Midwest starting Tuesday and lasting through the weekend. The
first half of the week will see a ridge axis poking into the area
from the large upper level dome over the southeastern CONUS while
the second half of the week will see an upper level low from the
western CONUS dive southeast and around the region. In addition,
any and all surface fronts will remain to the south of the region.
This will keep deep moisture and strong heating off to the south
as well. Thus, this will all combine to spell only isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the
week, all of a light/non-severe nature. The second half of the
week looks to be drier as the upper low avoids this region.
Chances for precipitation increase around next weekend but nothing
impressive by any means. Temperatures will also remain fairly
steady throughout the week with the lack of any airmass change
behind today`s departing cold front. Highs will generally remain
in the 70-80 degree range while lows remain between 55 and 65


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Conditions continue to gradually improve, especially along and
north of the I-94 corridor as the main frontal boundary sinks
south into Iowa. The front will remain south tonight, so still
expect to see some isolated to scattered precipitation, do not
expect widespread impacts. MVFR cigs will lift back north of the
front early tomorrow, impacting the southern third of MN and
portions of western WI.

KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected to improve quickly this afternoon.
Precip for tomorrow is not a sure bet.

Tue Night...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind ENE 10G15 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind ESE 10 kts.




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