Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 110907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
407 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Mar 11 2018

Widespread mist and pockets of freezing drizzle are in place this
morning southwest of the MS river. There have been recent reports of
some slick spots in these areas, but believe accumulations will be
too light for a Winter Weather Advisory. There is also a patch of
moderate snow showers from near Willmar to St Cloud heading
southeast around 10 kts. If they hold together, they will reach the
metro around 8 am. A quick half inch can be expected with these.

After about mid morning the precip will end and cloudy skies will
continue for the remainder of the day. Drier air will reach western
MN late this afternoon, with clearing from northwest to southeast
this evening. Lows tonight will dip into the teens across much of MN
and into the low 20s in WI.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Mar 11 2018

The long term continues to feature warming temperatures and dry
conditions until possibly toward next weekend.

Other than the potential for scattered flurries Monday night over
west central Wisconsin as energy on the western periphery of a
Great Lakes trough dips across the area, no precipitation is
expected through at least Thursday.

It will take a couple days for the aforementioned trough to shift
east enough to allow for western ridging to build more noticeably
into the central CONUS. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the
low/mid 30s, but by Wednesday 40s will rule. Still cannot rule out
a few spots touching 50 degrees for Thursday-Friday, but overall
the extent of ridging has lessened, so mid to upper 40s are more

Forecast confidence decreases Friday into the weekend, given the
issues models continue to have regarding how the western energy
will eject out into the central CONUS. However, both ECMWF and
GFS are now hinting at a weak shortwave kicking out of the parent
trough and passing over the area on Friday, with dry conditions
Saturday, then a return toward precip at some point Sunday as the
main wave arrives. Have included 20-30 POPs for Rain/snow on
Friday for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 941 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Thinking hasn`t changed much from earlier. Will see some lingering
light snow into the first part of the forecast period,
particularly over the south/east portions, but main issue for
lower visibilities overnight into Sunday will be some fog. There
have been a few drizzle reports upstream, but not widespread.
However, that certainly bears watching given the expectation for
below freezing temperatures overnight, which could lead to some
freezing drizzle. At this point, it appears to be a low
probability issue, with satellite indicating most of the upstream
cloud cover is glaciated. But, as mentioned, bears watching.
Otherwise, we`ll see slow improvement on Sunday until we start to
see ridging and drier air work in late in the day and evening.

KMSP...Main uncertainty is with respect to how low visibilities
and ceilings will get overnight. Stuck close to previous
forecasts, which is also reasonably in line with the latest LAMP

.Monday...Brief MVFR possible with a chance of snow showers.
Northwest wind around 10 kt.
.Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. Southwest wind less than 10 kt.




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