711
FXUS63 KMQT 091825
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
225 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday and
  Saturday. Otherwise, a mostly dry end of week is expected.

- Seasonable temperatures persist in the Upper Peninsula for
  the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Surface ridging overhead has kept the region dry under light
northerly flow. This has sustained overcast skies in the west half
and south half of the eastern counties, with what appears to be a
diurnal boost in coverage this morning, and temperatures in the 50s
and low 60s by Lake Superior and 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Suspect
cloud cover could stick around for the next hour or so, but believe
a trend toward clearing skies will occur this afternoon and evening.
Mostly clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the
50s, with interior areas dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

High pressure sticks around Thursday, supporting another dry day.
Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 70s by Lake Superior
and upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere. Given the increasing southerly
flow, afternoon lake breeze off Lake Superior isn`t expected to push
inland far. A more mild night is expected Thursday night thanks to
increasing moisture ahead of the next system. Overnight temperatures
look to fall into the 50s, with low to mid 60s far west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Beginning Friday, mid-upper ridge axis will lay through Upper
Michigan, with a series of shortwaves embedded within split stream
flow stream upstream over the Central and Northern Plains. Various
placement of previous night MCVs are apparent in the different
deterministic packages, which supports my initial uncertainty in the
timing of the key features for Upper Michigan. Although 12z guidance
appears to have produced a better concensus which overall looks to
pull a warm front or the attendant surface low through the forecast
area Friday afternoon or overnight. This while the mid-level
shortwave to the west moves from the Dakotas into Minnesota/western
Lake Superior. This main shortwave begins to take on a negative
tilt, which might absorb the original low/shortwave. 6z and 12z
guidance is unclear if this will actually take place overhead or
downstream in northern Ontario. Regardless though, the cold front
will help push the surface low through the region Saturday and
Saturday night. While questions of the timing and location of the
initial features exists, showers, potentially mixed with
thunderstorms should be expected. Given the temporal clarity of the
initial timing of precip, instability/shear may be present over the
region, which could support stronger storms late Friday. DCAPE
values suggest an isolated strong to severe wind threat, but model
soundings show light background winds upwards of 25k ft, suggesting
this potential is low (<25%). Guidance also suggests potential for
mid-level lapse rates increasing to ~7C/km, which may be enough to
support hail should a stronger updraft get going. Showers and storms
will press through the region overnight while the cold front moves
in from the west. Given the questions about phasing and the timing
of the initial showers/storms, its unclear if precip will occur all
day Saturday, or be mainly limited to the afternoon/evening hours
ahead of the front.

From there, another shortwave migrates through the region Sunday
evening and overnight while surface high shifts from the Upper
Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes. The high looks to keep the region
mostly dry Sunday, but a line of showers may accompany the wave late
Sunday night/Monday morning. A deep trough moving through the
Canadian Prairies and a shortwave lifting northeast from the Central
Plains will shift toward Upper Michigan on Monday. There are notable
timing differences in the model suites regarding these and whether
or not they`ll phase overhead next week. Right now the main window
for precip associated with these features focuses on Tuesday to
Wednesday. Daytime highs each day look to climb into the 70s to mid
80s and with overnight lows dipping into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Cloud cover has stuck around longer then anticipated, but continue
to believe a trend will be toward clearing skies will occur this
afternoon. Before then, occassional MVFR ceilings will be possible
at all sites. Afterwards, primarily VFR conditions are expected at
all sites. Although there is the potential for mist/fog development
at KSAW by Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Winds generally remain generally ~15 kts or less through the
remainder of the work week as weak high pressure traverses the Great
Lakes. However, a couple of disturbances move through the region
Friday into the weekend. Thus, we can expect showers and
thunderstorms to form from west to east across the lake from Friday
through Saturday. In addition, we could see winds increase to around
15-20 knots from the southwest on Saturday, persisting into Sunday
before falling back into Monday. Expect a brief reprieve from
convection Sunday before additional storms potentially move in with
a Clipper system next Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC