440
FXUS63 KMQT 091711
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
111 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will lift after sunrise. Meanwhile, high pressure
  ushers in quiet and dry weather today through Thursday.

- Seasonable temperatures persist in the Upper Peninsula for the
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES Satellite imagery reveal areas
of low clouds / fog enveloping much of the UP underneath an
approaching upper level ridge and sfc high pressure. Temps across
Upper Michigan have settled into the low 60s and 50s. Fog and low
clouds will scatter out this morning after sunrise. The
aforementioned ridge, extending much of the west-central CONUS will
support a near 1018mb sfc high pressure directly atop the Northern
Great Lakes through today and Thursday, leading to pleasant summer
weather. Look for high temperatures today to peak in the low 70s
interior with 60s seen closer to Lake Superior under light northerly
winds behind afternoon lake breeze development. Overnight lows
with mostly clear skies will cool nicely into the 40s and 50s.

A near repeat of today will progress Thursday as sfc high pressure
slowly meanders southeast overhead the Great Lakes State. With the
upper ridge axis extending into Ontario, warmer 850mb temps ~12-14C
will support sfc temperatures a little on the warmer side, climbing
into the upper 70s to low 80s with mid 70s felt near the lakeshores
and Keweenaw.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Ridging over the area for the end of the work week gives way to a
more active pattern by this weekend as phasing lows over the
Canadian Prairies and Plains lift into northern Ontario by Saturday.
Behind this, shortwave lows could bring additional rain chances back
across the area early to mid next week.

High pressure ridging over the area weakens Thursday and Friday as
two shortwave lows, one over the Canadian Prairies and another over
the Northern/Central Plains traverse eastward late this week. As
these lows approach the Upper Great Lakes, they begin to phase with
each other, pushing troughing into the area by Friday. Thus, we
could see rain chances begin pushing into the western U.P. by
Friday, although the main `hit` of rainfall doesn`t look to impact
the area until the Friday night/Saturday time period when the lows
phase with one another over northern Ontario. While we could see
above normal temperatures ahead of the phasing low`s passage, expect
a return to around normal temperatures behind it on Saturday as
cooler air enters into the region.

Moving into early next week, a Clipper low moving through the
Canadian Prairies could bring a cold front across the area around
the Sunday night/Monday time period, bringing showers and storms
back to the U.P. Behind that, model guidance shows the active
pattern continuing into the mid week as more shortwaves approaches
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Cloud cover has stuck around longer then anticipated, but continue
to believe a trend will be toward clearing skies will occur this
afternoon. Before then, occassional MVFR ceilings will be possible
at all sites. Afterwards, primarily VFR conditions are expected at
all sites. Although there is the potential for mist/fog development
at KSAW by Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Winds generally remain generally ~15 kts or less through the
remainder of the work week as weak high pressure traverses the Great
Lakes. However, as two shortwave lows move from west to east late
this week, one over the Canadian Prairies and the other over the
Northern/Central Plains, they begin to phase with one another as
they approach the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, we can expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to form from west to east across the lake
from Friday through Saturday as the more southerly low lifts
northwards across the area. In addition, we could see winds increase
to around 20 knots from the southwest on Saturday from this phasing.
Behind this, expect a brief reprieve from convection before
additional storms potentially move in with a Clipper system next
Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...Jablonski/TAP