Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 132320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
720 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

The lake effect this afternoon will continue to quickly diminish
into this evening. Not expecting any impacts from this point on, so
ended the Advisory early.

Went with low end of guidance tonight given clearing skies, which
results in lows in the single digits above zero in most locations,
but evening shift will need to watch cloud cover moving in from the

A shortwave and surface trough will move through Wed afternoon and
evening, with some light lake enhanced snow possible behind them.
Snow then ramps up after 00Z Thu, but see long term discussion for
more details on that.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

Fairly quiet weather expected through much of the extended forecast
with the exception of light to possibly moderate lake effect snow
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A couple of quick-moving
clipper shortwaves move through the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday
night into Thursday ushering colder a colder air mass into the
area. 850mb temperature are progged to drop as low as -17C to
-18C by late Wed night into Thu which will provide enough
instability for generating north wind lake effect snow showers.
Moisture profiles do not look overly impressive off model fcst
soundings, with moisture only up to 6 kft and plenty of dry air at
low- levels. For locations outside of the north to northwest wind
snowbelts, little to no snow is expected, and many of those
locations will likely see sunshine. Best chance for a period of
moderate lake effect snow would probably be Wed night into the
east half of Upper Mi where longer north fetch across eastern Lake
Superior and favorable placement of DZG within the convective
cloud layer could briefly result in more organized lake effect
snow bands and slightly heavier accumulations. Temperatures will
generally be near to slightly above normal for this time period.

Friday and Saturday: Ridging builds in at all levels into the Upper
Great Lakes resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds
for Fri into Sat. The air mass will also be moderating under the
building high pressure. Expect max temps above normal by Sat
with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s by afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday: There are no indications of any major
weather systems impacting the region during this time period. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF and now the 12Z GFS indicate a clipper shortwave
moving through the area on Sunday which could bring in air
marginally cold enough for possible light lake effect snow Sunday
afternoon into Mon in a n-ne flow. Otherwise, expect temps fairly
close to normal for the early part of the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 707 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

Pesky snow showers have (finally!) started to let up at KSAW and
ceilings are expected to improve to VFR criteria over the next one
to two hours. VFR conditions will then prevail at all three TAF
sites through about 18 UTC at KIWD and KCMX, and 21 UTC at KSAW,
Wednesday as a weak system swings south across the region. Light
lake effect snow showers are expected to develop just after 00Z
Thursday at all three TAF sites.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 348 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018

Winds this afternoon will relax to below 20 knots by midnight.
Relatively calm winds will prevail until Wednesday night and into
Thursday as winds increase to 20 to 30 knots, strongest over the
east half of the lake.  No gale force winds or heavy freezing spray
is expected at this time.


Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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