Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 151852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
252 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Benign weather expected for at least the next 36 hours, and likely
to persist into the medium/longer term periods as well.

High pressure continues to drift east from the Upper Midwest/Central
Canada, which will steadily erode the lingering shallow moisture and
bring an end to the lake-effect snow showers across central/eastern
UP this afternoon. Skies have already cleared across the western UP,
and expect a gradual push to the east this evening/overnight. As a
result, temperatures for the central/western UP will quickly radiate
tonight given optimal conditions. Have held onto the current
forecast lows of single digits below zero across the west and some
areas of the higher terrain across central UP. Further east, it
apppears clouds will linger and thus help to hold temps up in the
single digits above zero to perhaps the lower teens.

High pressure will be positioned overhead Fri, allowing a very light
pressure gradient to produce light to calm winds from the
west/northwest. Temps will steadily rebound into the 30s and
eventually warm to near 40 across interior portions of southwest UP.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Expect a quiet stretch of weather through the weekend and through
most of next week. High pressure will remain over the Upper Great
Lakes through Saturday. Saturday will be the warmest day of the next
7 with plenty of sunshine and highs ranging from the mid 30s east to
mid 40s west. A cold front will drop through the area on Sunday but
with limited moisture no precipitation is expected. 85H temperatures
will be close for some lake effect flurries Sunday night into
Monday...but nothing more than that. Temperatures early next week
will average a couple degrees below normal before western U.S. upper
troughing forces more amplified ridging over the eastern U.S. and
the Great Lakes. Temperatures will then climb back to a little
above normal by late next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Lake effect clouds have started to clear across the south with VFR
conditions now being observed at KIWD.  However, the clouds are
persisting around KCMX and KSAW with low confidence in when they
will finally erode. Associated light lake effect snow showers also
continue at KSAW with occasional drops in visibility to IFR
conditions. Admittedly there is low confidence in just how long the
clouds and snow will continue at KCMX and KSAW, respectively, but
the expectation is for VFR conditions to gradually spread eastward
to all TAF sites this afternoon and evening. This TAF package is on
the pessimistic side with IFR conditions for visibility continuing
at KSAW for the next 1-2 hours followed by MVFR ceilings through
the evening, and MVFR conditions for ceilings continuing at KCMX
through the early afternoon hours.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 243 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Light west/northwest winds overnight through Friday will be at or
below 20kts on Lake Superior. No significant winds are expected for
the next few days over Lake Superior.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Beachler
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