Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 180554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Temperatures will remain below normal through the coming week.
However, our weather will also be fairly quiet, with high
pressure mostly in control. There is a small chance for a
system to skim by the Poconos and Catskills Tuesday into
Wednesday, but at this time it appears more likely that it will
miss our region by staying southeast.


The forecast challenge heading into the overnight continues to
be how fast the temperatures will fall. Winds have been slow to
come down early this evening which has prevented a steep
dropoff. The latest data still shows the winds going light
overnight. So this looks like a case of delayed but not denied
in terms of a very cold tonight. Lows were raised slightly from
the previous update but the overall expectation is for a very
cold night with temperatures in the teens and single digits.

Another potential wild card overnight is whether or not some
cloud debris, currently up over Lake Superior, ends up making it
to NY and PA. There are conflicting model signals in this
regard, but given the dry nature of the resident air mass, we`ll
side towards the less cloud cover scenario. This would also
produce a longer period of radiational cooling, likely leading
to some very cold readings prior to daybreak. For this reason,
we undercut a consensus of higher resolution temperature


250 pm update...
Expansive surface high pressure, nosing down out of
central/eastern Canada, will keep us dry and fairly cold during
this period.

The passage of another weak short-wave and surface trough in the
prevailing NW flow pattern aloft on Sunday, could produce some
patchy cloudiness, especially across our northern zones.
However, that is about all that would alter a clear-partly
cloudy stretch, with persistent below normal temperatures for
mid to late March.

Daytime highs both days should range from the upper 20s-upper
30s, with a few lower 40s possible in the normal milder valleys
of the Finger Lakes region and NEPA. Overnight lows Sunday will
be cold again, generally dropping into the single digits and


315 PM update...
Not much change to the extended forecast.

Latest model guidance continues to suppress a coastal system
just to the south of the area in the Monday night through
Tuesday time period. This trend continues to decrease the
potential for a significant accumulating snowfall in most, if
not all of our forecast area.

Models seem to be coming into better agreement that the steady
precipitation (likely in the form of snow) would be mainly along
and south of I-78/I-80 corridor. There is still some potential
the system could edge north slightly in the coming days,
possibly bringing light snow to most of our NE PA zones and
Sullivan county NY (much like the latest 12z Canadian model
indicates). There will be a very sharp cutoff of the precipitation
on the north side of this system as cold/dry air feeds into it
from a Canadian high pressure system to the north. We will have
to keep a close eye on this storm system in the coming days, as
a relatively small shift north (around 100-120 miles) would
allow potentially significant snowfall to move into parts of our
forecast area. Overall confidence remains low to moderate with
this system still.

The first wave moves off the east coast and away from the area
Tuesday night, then another wave of low pressure develops along
the North Carolina coast on Wednesday. All current indications
are that this low pressure system and its associated moisture
will move well off the East Coast and away from our area...with
little to no impact mid-week.

At this time, it seems a relatively dry, broad upper level
trough will move into our area for Wednesday, Thursday and
Friday. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy during this
period, with perhaps a few lake effect flurries around.

Confidence does remain high that temperatures will stay well
below average through the upcoming week. Highs will be mainly in
the upper 20s to 30s, with overnight lows in the teens or lower
20s. This is a solid 10-15 degrees below the seasonal average.

By next Saturday, an anomalous, cold upper level low will be
located over Quebec/Ontario to our north. At the same time
another system with additional moisture will begin approach the
area from the west. This could certainly lead to a period of
snow for next weekend. Temperatures look to remain rather
steady, and below normal, with highs in the 30s and lows in the

Previous Discussion Below....
Latest medium range models are continuing to trend farther
south with the potential mid week winter storm. The ECMWF is
farther south than the GFS which would only give light amounts
of snowfall to the far southeast forecast area. The ECMWF is a
total miss. On Tuesday a mid level wave moves off the mid
Atlantic coast with the surface reflection just brushing the far
southeast forecast area. Another wave digging on the back side
of the upper level trough Tuesday night initiates a secondary
surface low off the southeast coast. This system moves off the
southeast coast on Wednesday and remains well south and east of
the local area. This is a very complex system due to the upper
level waves, much uncertainty still exists. Will continue
mention in the HWO but for only much of northeast Pennsylvania
and the western Catskills. In general have backed off on the
pops Tuesday through Wednesday with low chance pops northeast
Pennsylvania and the western Catskills with slight chance
elsewhere. Thursday through Saturday looks primarily dry with a
persistent upper level trough over the northeast and high
pressure over eastern Canadian.

The extended period will remain cold with lows generally
running in the teens to lower 20s and high in the 30s.


High pressure and a dry atmosphere will mostly yield quiet
conditions through the TAF period. However, the only exception
is that a weak shallow cool front will slip over the area late
today into this evening. This will allow an initially VFR deck
of clouds to drop north to south over the area, in the 4-7 kft
agl range. Eventually, around 04Z-06Z Monday, high end MVFR
ceilings will be realized at KBGM-KITH-KELM but probably not
dipping quite into MVFR for KSYR-KRME, and it will struggle to
reach KAVP. Not long after, the ceilings will tend to scatter
out as we head more into Monday. Light north or variable wind
early this morning, becomes NW 5-10 knots late morning through
afternoon before slacking in evening.


Monday through Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Small chance of snow and
restrictions at KAVP on Tuesday; system probably staying south.




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