369
FXUS63 KDMX 120320
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and smokey skies to continue Thursday. Sky
  coverage between 20 and 30%.

- Francine moves clouds in later Thursday into Saturday, with
  low chances (~20%) of light rain for the eastern third of the
  state.

- Warm weather returns Sunday with a more active pattern to
  monitor in the middle and end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Aside from the passing smoke aloft, mostly clear skies and warm
temperatures were the main feature today and will likewise be the
same case for much of tomorrow. Highs have been held down a few
degrees tomorrow as the smoke continues to filter some of the
sunlight. Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Francine will
progress up the Mississippi Valley, with a piece up energy ejecting
into the Midwest late Friday into Saturday. Consequently, in
addition to the overcast sky, there is some kinematic support for
light rain to fall in at least the eastern third of the state. Have
adjusted temperatures down slightly to account for the cloud cover
and rain. Have also added in small rain chances in the eastern part
of the area Friday into Saturday. Again overall, rainfall amounts
will be light. Some thunderstorms could be possible early Saturday.

Clouds will linger for much of Saturday and hold temperatures near
80. Another upper level ridge will bring the return of mid to upper
80s Sunday and into the first half of next week. Meanwhile, a
longwave trough still looks poised to deepen over the western CONUS
next week, pivoting into the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest
region in the middle of next week. It`s close enough that NBM PoPs
do bring some precipitation to the area at the end of the forecast
period. A collection of the more recent CFS severe weather probs
highlighted the region as potentially having adequate CAPE and shear
for storm organization. It`s too far out to know if storms would
materialize over Iowa, but it is worth monitoring location and
intensity trends over the coming days. Another trough will follow on
the heels of this one, breaking down the ridge that grips our
weather pattern further as we enter next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail as winds remain steady from the
southeast varying only 30 degrees or so in direction during the
period. Winds do increase to between 7 and 15 knots during the
late morning and afternoon hours before decreasing in the
evening. There are already filaments of high clouds loosely
associated with present Hurricane Francine with more widespread
high and mid-level clouds arriving Thursday evening over OTM,
DSM, and toward the end of the period at ALO.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Ansorge