479
FXUS63 KAPX 242339
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
739 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today

- Drier air moves in tonight and linger into Wednesday, could
  result in seasonally cool overnight lows tonight

- Widespread rain chances return late Wednesday into Friday,
  with some locations seeing multiple rounds of heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Current radar depicts isolated to scattered showers around northern
MI this afternoon as the axis of deepest moisture, riding around a
large upper ridge, continues to stream over head. A weak lake breeze
has pushed in over NE lower and should allow some showers to
strengthen and produce some thunder. Unfavorable wind profiles and
deep saturation leads to very low chances for storms to have severe
attributes with them. Training of brief heavy rain could be seen
along and south of M-72 this evening (low chances). Surface
high pressure will continue eastward over SE CAN, turning winds
more northerly this evening and tonight. Drier air (Tds in the
50s) will seep in as this airmass reaches M-72 tonight. By this
time, the axis of deep moisture will shift to the
central/southern areas of the lower penisula. Clear skies are
likely over eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt tonight,
and when paired with drier air, could result in overnight low
temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s over interior locations.
Warmer lake surface temperatures and thick vegetation should
curb lows reaching into the mid 30s.

Wednesday morning, around 200% of normal PWATs move into the
SD/MN/IA region. A rather large area of LL convergence exists there
due to a quasi-stationay front that is draped all the way northeast
into CAN (through central MI). Northern lower and eastern upper
are eventually downstream of this action (rain/storm chances
Wednesday night through early Friday) as flow around the ridge
will put it on a favorable path. Per the CAMs (and the Maddox
FF pattern), widespread rain with embedded convection forms on
the north side of the stationary boundary (turning into a warm
front later Wednesday) which happens to be over central MN/WI.
Cyclogenesis will aid in strengthening convection and background
forcing as it moves over WI later Wednesday. The warm front
will begin to cross Lk MI later Wednesday (timing is still up
for debate) brining widespread rain with embedded showers to
central MI. Widespread rain with embedded showers will be seen
most of Thursday for northern MI. There isn`t anything aloft
that will move this cyclone quickly, so it will take its time
as it moves over MI - keeping rain and storm chances around
through early Friday morning. Heavier rain will be in waves
during this time as the cyclone approaches MI (warm front over
MI) early Thursday, then moves over MI late Thursday into
Friday.

The main threat with this will be training of the embedded
convection, which at this time looks to occur Thurs afternoon
through Friday morning. The W/E warm front will allow embedded
convection to generate along the boundary and move from west to
east repeatedly - which with PWATs 200% of normal could result
in more than a healthy rainfall. Where this occurs is up for
debate, but ensembles have been trending towards larger QPF
amounts over MI (ECMWF members 24hr QPF mean jumping from 0.61"
yesterday to ~1" today). Most locations will likely see a
quarter to 1 inch falling over a longer period of time Wed night
through early Fri morning, however swath of 2+ inches isn`t out
of the question for MI.

As for severe potential, 0-6km Bulk shear of 45 to 55kts isn`t bad -
but model soundings show most of that above 12ktf (the exception
is right along the warm front boundary). With a WCL of around
14kft, most chances for hail is out of the question and damaging
winds will be tough to come by. Right along the boundary could
foster an environment for quick tornadic spin ups, but still the
chances remain low with this. The main threat will be heavy
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

West winds will eventually move the anomalous moisture out of
northern MI Friday, with some lingering convection possible through
the afternoon hours. More chances for rain/storms this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Layered cloud cover across northern Lower Michigan to start
beneath axis of deeper moisture...some MVFR ceilings beneath a
higher Ac deck. As time goes on clouds are expected to
thin/ceilings to rise tonight...should be VFR at KPLN/KAPN with
more persistent MVFR ceilings through around 0600Z (expect lower
ceilings into KMBL by 0200Z). Dew point trends tonight look
interesting...with a good bit of boundary layer drying forecast
(somewhat surprisingly). But given this and a persistent light
northeast breeze should limit fog potential. KCIU expected to
remain VFR through the period with just some high clouds
expected.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JPB