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000
FXUS63 KAPX 141845
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
245 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures tonight.

- Mild temperatures early this week.

- Rain likely late Tuesday into late Wednesday along with gusty
winds.

- A little cooler late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Overnight front that brought fairly widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms now well off to our south, with parent weak surface
low centered across southeast Ontario. High pressure building
steadily southeast into the northern Great Lakes in its wake, with
area centered in deepening subsidence regime between northeast NOAM
centered upper level troughing and building upper level heights
across the northern Plains. A mixture of clouds and sun found across
the Northwoods, with a bit more clouds north...and more sun the
further south one goes. That mid-April sun is simply overwhelming
exceptionally weak post-frontal cold air advection regime, with
current temperatures punching up into the 60s across most of
northern lower Michigan. A bit cooler conditions north of the big
bridge, with readings mostly in the 50s.

Our area will remain centered under the inflection point between
that troughing to our northeast and building upper level ridge axis
to our west tonight. Surface high pressure will continue to build
southeast within attendant deep layer subsidence regime into the
northern Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Focus centers on overnight cloud and temperature trends..

Details:

A rather quiet night, with dry conditions under clear to partly
cloudy skies (again, a bit more clouds across eastern upper). Should
see a decent nocturnal temperature response...allowing readings by
early Monday morning to range through the 30s. Suppose a few upper
20s will be possible in our traditional colder locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Heights begin to rise early this week out ahead of a bowling ball of
an upper disturbance across the Plains states. This feature will
move northeastward right over Michigan, with warm, moist low level
advection and thus shower development expected. By the predawn hours
Thursday, the back edge of this feature will likely be working its
way east to northeast of northern Michigan, thus slowly diminishing
rain chances.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Mild temperatures expected through the early portions of this week
due to ridging aloft over the area. Mid 50s in the cooler spots
(near the coasts and eastern upper) to mid 60s across interior
locations.

Next storm system and associated slug of moisture moves northeast
into Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday night resulting in rounds
of rain showers. Not a substantial amount of instability progged,
but perhaps enough elevated instability due to modestly steep mid
level lapse rates to produce a slight chance for thunder/convective
showers. Could definitely be a wetting rain for some, largely
beneficial. Lift slowly diminishes across the region as the back
edge of the upper disturbance approaches northern Michigan by the
predawn hours Thursday. If not by Thursday morning, then shortly
thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Much of the steady and heavier precipitation should be moving
east/northeastward on Thursday as upper level system/sfc low depart
and drier air begins to funnel in. Still could be some lingering
light showers, though. Then, cold front moves into the region for
late week and into the weekend with cooler temperatures expected.
Uncertain on how deep an upper trough will dig later next weekend,
deeper would perhaps produce a few lake induced showers, but overall
not very impactful. Besides slightly cooler temperatures and a few
showers, no hazardous weather anticipated in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Expect any lingering MVFR cigs at KCIU to mix out this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions across the taf locations
through Monday under just a few passing higher level clouds.
Northwest winds may be a touch gusty this afternoon, and again
on Monday. Light winds tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Sub-advisory conditions expected to continue across our nearshore
waters through Monday night. Low pressure will result in
increasingly gusty east and southeast winds Tuesday through
Wednesday. Trends support the development of widespread advisory
conditions during this period, with even the potential for gale
force gusts on at least some of our big waters.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB