Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 232047
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
447 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Spectacular weather will be found across all of western and north
central New York for the remainder of the work week...as a large
area of high pressure will slowly drift across the Lower Great
Lakes. Temperatures will climb above normal in the process...with
daytime highs in the 80s Friday and Saturday. Our next chance for
rain will be later this weekend when there could be a few showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear starlit skies will be in place tonight...as Canadian high
pressure will drift over the region from the Upper Great Lakes. The
exceptions will be in the immediate Buffalo area where some lake
induced fog and stratus off Lake Erie could extend far enough inland
to shroud the skies...and in the valleys of the Southern Tier late
to night where valley fog will produce a beautiful dendritic fog
pattern by daybreak. Meanwhile...temperatures will be on the cool
side of normal with mins ranging from the lower 50s along the lake
shores to the lower 40s across parts of the North Country and in the
coolest Srn Tier valleys.

Thursday will then absolutely spectacular. High pressure will slowly
push away from the region...while it a dry airmass and plenty of
subsidence will guarantee sun filled skies and light winds. After a
cool morning...H85 temps rising the around 12c will support
afternoon highs of 75 to 80. It will be a few degrees cooler across
the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Perfect weather will be in place across our region during the
majority of this period as a deamplifying ridge will cross the Lower
Great Lakes. Initially...this will result in clear skies and
comfortable temperatures. As we work our way into the weekend
though...the controlling Canadian surface high will drift to
our southeast off the Mid Atlantic coast. The clockwise circulation
around this fair weather feature will usher in a warmer and notably
more humid airmass...one that will support scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity...particularly as we get deeper into the
weekend.

Temperatures will average well above normal during this forty eight
hour period...especially during the day when the mercury will climb
into the low to mid 80s. Mins will range from the mid 50s Thursday
night to the low to mid 60s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will shift southeast across the Upper Great
Lakes and into New England from Sunday morning through Monday
evening, while at the same time a stationary boundary will be in
place over the area. This stationary boundary will provide a path
for a weak surface low to trek along, and combined with an increased
moist airmass and increasing CAPE, precip chances will continue for
Sunday and Monday. CAPE values for Sunday approaching 1500+ j/kg for
areas from the Western Southern Tier to the Central NY area. CAPE
values for Monday not as high, but still 1000+ j/kg for areas in the
N. Finger Lakes. Precipitable water for Sunday/Monday will be around
1.30 inches, which is around a half inch above the average
climatology for these two days in May. With the combination of the
stationary front, moisture and CAPE, showers and thunderstorms look
likely as of now for Sunday through Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday morning a cold front will cross the area
and an area of high pressure will start to move into the region from
Central Ontario and the Northern Great Lakes. The center of the high
pressure will be just north of Lake Ontario by Tuesday night, and
will slide southeast towards the New England coast on Wednesday.
Tuesday through Wednesday look dry for the most part as this area of
high pressure provides tranquil weather for the region. PW values
will decrease on Tuesday into Tuesday night and slowly increase as
the area of high pressure shifts to the east allowing for the next
influx of moisture later in the week.

High temperatures for all four days will generally be in the upper
70s to the low 80s. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s Sunday night through Wednesday night. Both high and low
temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal compared to late
May averages.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian high pressure drifting southeast from the Upper Great Lakes
will supply fair VFR conditions across the majority of our region
tonight. The exceptions will be in the Southern Tier late
tonight where valley fog will result in areas of IFR conditions.
There is also the possibility that fog off Lake Erie will reach
the Buffalo terminal, but the fog bank on Laker Erie has
dissipated considerably late afternoon which lowers the chances
for this happening.

VFR weather with light winds will be found over western and north
central New York on Thursday...as high pressure will be centered
over the region.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Monday...VFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes at midday will
slowly drift southeast across the Lower Great Lakes tonight and
Thursday. While this will initially generate moderate breezes on
Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon...winds will drop off
significantly tonight and Thursday as the core of the high drifts
through the region. Any choppiness from the moderate breezes will
drop off as well so that negligible waves can be expected through
Thursday.

The area of high pressure will move off the East Coast Thursday
night and Friday. This will support gentle to occasionally moderate
southwesterlies into the upcoming weekend with insignificant waves.

As we push through the upcoming weekend...the risk for scattered
thunderstorms will increase.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...RSH


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