388
FXUS61 KBUF 150844
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
444 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With the exception of some fog early this morning...weak high
pressure will provide us with fair dry and uneventful weather will
through tonight...along with somewhat lower humidity levels than the
past few days. It will then turn more humid and unsettled again
Wednesday and Thursday...when scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface-based ridging building across our region has resulted
in skies clearing across our area since yesterday evening...with the
combination of this...light winds...and lingering higher dewpoints
allowing for the formation of some patchy fog across the area. Based
on recent surface obs and satellite imagery...have upped the amount
of fog across the area through early this morning to include greater
portions of the Niagara Frontier and Finger Lakes.

Whatever fog that does form early this morning will mix out fairly
quickly after sunrise...with a dry and uneventful day otherwise
expected as the axis of the surface ridge crests across our area.
While it will remain rather warm with highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s...somewhat lower dewpoints (mostly in the lower to mid
60s) should help to keep apparent temperatures from reaching above
the lower 90s...thereby precluding the need for any heat advisories.

Tonight the axis of the surface ridge will slowly drift off to our
east...while a shortwave trough slowly makes its way northeastward
across the Ohio Valley. While this latter feature may help to spread
some mid-level clouds into southwestern portions of the area
overnight...any associated pcpn will is expected to remain southwest
of our region until the day Wednesday...with dry weather continuing
to prevail. Otherwise it will be a rather warm night...with lows
ranging from the 60s across the interior of the Southern Tier and
North Country to around 70 across the lake plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heat and humidity builds again Wednesday, but there is some concern
we may `NOT` reach Heat Advisory criteria (95F-100F). The
reason...shortwave energy ejecting out of TX which may bring with it
a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
limiting MaxT`s. This is picked up in CAMs with widespread
convection firing during peak heating hours. Also...with PW values
pushing up above 1.7" and closing in on 2.0" storms could produce
localized very heavy rainfall. WPC has our area in a Marginal Risk
Wednesday for excessive rainfall and will mention the heavy
rainfall potential along with the heat and humidity in the HWO.

Mild and muggy night expected Wednesday night with little relief
once the sun sets. Overnight temps slowly crawling back into the
low/mid 70s, maybe some spots seeing the upper 60s.

Another warm and muggy day Thursday ahead of the cold front. There
remains some timing issues with the cold front but expect another
round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.

The cold front pushes south and southeast of the Lower Lakes
Thursday night, with diminishing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Turning cooler and less humid for Friday which is
looking like a really nice day. Highs on Friday will be 10F to as
much as 15F degrees cooler with a range of 70s across the region.

High pressure builds overhead Friday night with clear skies and
great sleeping conditions. Lows will be found in the 50s to low 60s
closer to the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure overhead Saturday is advertised to gradually
exits off to our east but will continue to provide dry weather
across the Lower Lakes. Zonal flow aloft will then direct the next
shortwave east towards the Lower Lakes on Sunday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the
start the new work week promoting largely dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through early this morning...expect areas of fog/very low stratus
(with conditions ranging from LIFR to MVFR) to continue to be an
issue owing to low level moisture lingering in the presence of clear
skies and light winds. Expect the fog to be most common across the
Southern Tier...as well as along/near the Niagara River from roughly
Grand Island into the vicinity of KIAG...with some lower stratus
also affecting KBUF at points.

After sunrise any fog and low stratus should mix out fairly quickly
with renewed daytime heating...leaving behind VFR conditions that
will prevail through the rest of today and tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday...Localized restrictions likely in
scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue across the lower Great Lakes through
today with light/variable winds.

A modest southerly flow will then develop following the passage of a
warm front later tonight and Wednesday, but wind speeds should
remain below 10 knots. This being said a passing disturbance will
bring the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms (with locally
higher winds and waves) as we push through the day Wednesday.

The next chance for somewhat stronger winds will be Thursday
following a passing cold front...with southwesterly winds picking up
to 10-15 knots and waves building into the 2-3 foot range at times.
There will also be a greater potential for thunderstorms and
associated locally higher winds and waves during this time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ008-013-014-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA