Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 181744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A weak cold front will drop across the region through this evening.
High pressure will then build back into the region Monday, with this
high influencing our weather through the end of the week. This will
result in an extended period of dry weather and below normal


Early this afternoon there is a weak cold front across Lake
Ontario. As a result temperatures are cooler east of Lake
Ontario on the cold side of the boundary with afternoon
temperatures in the 20s. It`s warmer south of Lake Ontario with
afternoon temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. The front is
dry, with an area of mid-level clouds along the boundary.

A shortwave pivoting around the back of a longwave trough across
the Canadian Maritimes will help nudge this frontal boundary
southward across the region tonight. There is very little low
level moisture with the boundary, but temperatures aloft will be
cold enough for lake effect and upslope enhanced clouds to
develop south of Lake Ontario. Mesoscale guidance develops some
lake effect snow which is probably overdone given how dry the
airmass is. BUFKIT thermal profiles suggest a potential as
well, so will add a mention flurries south of Lake Ontario
tonight. Any snow would be light and fluffy, and localized in

Clear skies and light winds in the North Country will allow
temperatures to drop to near the zero degree mark again tonight,
with the typical coolest spots around the Tug Hill likely to
see some negative single digit readings. Otherwise, western NY
will be in the teens to around 20.


On Monday a weak backdoor cold front will settle just south of the
area across northern PA and northern Ohio. Surface high pressure
will drift slowly east across northwest Ontario province, with a
ridge extending down into the eastern Great Lakes. This high, and
associated dry air and subsidence will keep dry weather in place
from Monday through Tuesday night and beyond. Meanwhile a surface
low and associated mid level trough will move across the central
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic later Monday and Tuesday. This system
will remain well south of our area, but will spread some mid/high
clouds northward at times. Low level northeast flow will promote a
few periods of minor lake effect and upslope clouds south of Lake
Ontario, but the cold air will be too shallow for any lake effect
snow showers.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. Highs both
Monday and Tuesday will range from the low to mid 30s across Western
NY to the 20s for higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Lows
Monday night will be in the teens in most locations, and single
digits east of Lake Ontario. Lows Tuesday night will range from the
lower 20s on the lake plains of Western NY to the teens across
interior sections, and single digits east of Lake Ontario.


Wednesday through Friday a pair of mid level systems and associated
surface lows will move through the Mid Atlantic States, eventually
evolving into a fairly strong low well off the east coast. This
stronger system will head into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday.
All of this will remain well south and east of our area, as
persistent high pressure remains in place from northwest Ontario
province into the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry weather
through Friday, with a few periods of enhanced cloud cover as weak
mid level systems cross the area. Temperatures will remain below
normal, with just a slow upward creep in temperatures day to day.

The pattern becomes more interesting again by Saturday. The latest
00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all in fairly good agreement in taking a
Pacific system quickly east across the mid section of the nation
Friday, reaching the Ohio Valley by early Saturday. The associated
surface low is forecast to move across Ohio and PA, with enough cold
air to support snow to the north of the low track across our region
later Saturday and Saturday night. Despite the currently good
agreement in the operational model guidance, GEFS and GEM ensembles
show a wide spread of possible solutions. With this in mind, have
kept POPS in the chance range for Saturday at this early juncture.


Expect widespread VFR conditions this afternoon. A weak cold
front will cross the area early this evening with mid level
clouds ahead of this front. Expect clouds to develop late this
evening behind this front due to lake enhancement and
upsloping, with patchy MVFR or lower conditions possible south
of Lake Ontario. The air mass is quite dry, with lake effect
clouds likely to be patchy in nature and to erode rather quickly
on Monday. Clearing skies on Monday will result in more VFR

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.


A weak cold front across Lake Ontario this afternoon will push
slowly south of the lake tonight with a brief period of
stronger northeast winds behind the boundary. Conditions may
briefly approach small craft criteria along the south shores of
Lake Ontario late tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise, high
pressure will ridge into the region through mid- weak with light
winds and negligible waves.





NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
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