Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261733
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
133 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A series of cold fronts will bring the risk of showers early
Friday morning then a better chance of showers Friday evening into
Saturday morning. The showers may mix with snow Saturday morning.
The showers should come to an end by midday Saturday. Even so it
will continue to be breezy through the day with highs struggling
to make 50 degrees. Sunday should be mostly sunny with highs in
the 50s. A significant warm is expected Monday into Wednesday with
highs reaching well into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect
some showers and thunderstorms too by mid week.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A real nice day is in store with the sfc ridge proving full sun
and light winds. One caveat to this however is that the afternoon
lake breeze front moving inland from Lake MI will likely bring a
period of stronger westerly winds (10-20 mph) and send
temperatures down after reaching highs in the lower 60s. Latest
HRRR guidance suggests the lake breeze could penetrate rather far
inland later today, reaching GRR around 4-5 pm and continuing east
of there through the early evening.

Light precip with the cold front arrives toward midnight around
Ludington and continues southeast overnight. Best pops will be
north of I-96, where some snow flakes could even mix in. QPF with
the front expected to be under one tenth of an inch.

A much better chance of appreciable precip amounts arrive late in
the day Friday into Friday night. This is related to left front
quad of the 80-100 kt jet core diving down the back side of the
upper trough. Reflectivity progs from the CAMs suggest a
convective nature to the precip as it comes through on Friday
night, and even some potential for snow as sfc temps fall after
dark. Can`t rule out some light accumulations on the grass at
night.

In the wake of Friday night`s shortwave, Saturday looks quite
chilly and breezy with the upper trough fully entrenched over the
GrtLks Region. This pattern may also lead to a fair amount of
diurnal clouds, although the dry air mass may offset that
potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The first part of next week will be very warm as temperatures climb
into the 70s Monday through Wednesday. High pressure over the
southeast US and developing low pressure over the northern Plains
will result in a strong southwest flow across the Midwest and Great
Lakes which will push temperatures upward.

The gfs and ecmwf show the Plains low moving northeast into Ontario
by Wednesday and the trailing cold front moving east toward Lake
Michigan. Chances for showers will increase late Wednesday and
especially Thursday. Both models show a second low developing over
Kansas and riding northeast along the frontal boundary. This setup
would give us a chance to see quite a bit of rain and perhaps some
thunderstorms depending on the track of the low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Solid VFR conditions are expected through most of the next 24hrs.
There is a frontal system moving through the area mid morning
Friday and that may have some rain showers with it, since this is
not a sure thing I put VCSH for that. There is likely to be a band
of MVFR cigs near and north of I-96 (about 3 hours wide) with the
front too. I would expect most of the TAF sites will remain VFR
even so. MKG has the greatest risk of seeing MVFR cigs for a few
hours mid morning Friday.

I expect there will be a lake breeze today and when it kicks in
and moves east expect an around an hour of gusty winds so I added
that to the TAFs around 21z.




&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Small craft advisories have expired, but the incoming cold front
late tonight may necessitate another round of advisories. Winds
increase out of the southwest ahead of the front, then shift
northerly behind it overnight. the after a brief lull, advisories
are a good bet again for Friday night and Saturday with strong
north flow and cold advection.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Rivers are running near to above normal for late April. Only a
handful of locations remain above bankfull at this time. Local,
nuisance flooding may still be an issue for these particular
locations: Ionia, Eagle, Maple Rapids, Newaygo, and Evart. Looking
at the next 7 days, the next risk for rain comes late Thursday and
then again on Friday, but will have no impact on area rivers. Beyond
this, rain may return by the middle of next week but too early to
tell if this will have any impact on area rivers and streams.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...Meade


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