Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 212318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
718 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018


Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Dry weather is expected through Monday night with a gradual warming
trend that will be helped by decreasing cloudiness after today.
Highs will push into the low 60s on Sunday and rise into the upper
60s on Monday. Rain showers will be possible from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday morning but precipitation amounts will be light.
Conditions will again become cool and unsettled Thursday night
into the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Main concern is high temperatures Sunday and Monday. With high
clouds less of a factor than today, it is possible that actual
maximum temperatures both days could exceed the forecast by several
degrees, making 70+ degrees plausible in spots on Monday. This could
even include the lakeshore if winds maintain an offshore direction
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Chances for rain showers return towards Tuesday morning and exit to
the southeast Wednesday morning. Precipitation should be generally
light. This activity will be associated with an approaching upper
trough and attendant cold front. Some extra upper deformation may be
in play too since the upper cutoff low that is centered over SE CO
today should be just southeast of Lower MI by Tuesday. Atmospheric
moisture will be lacking overall with this event due to persistent
surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS preventing favorable
flow from the Gulf of Mexico to this far north.

The next system for the end of the week looks cold enough for a
rain/snow mix Thursday night around US-10. Rain showers are
expected to continue into Friday with little total precipitation


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday (and beyond). High
pressure passing overhead tonight will result in clear skies
(mid and high clouds should be gone by midnight) and nearly calm
winds. A system passing to our south will result in east winds
Sunday and the winds will be strong enough to keep the lake breeze
from developing at MKG. Still winds should stay under 10 knots for
the most part.


Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Winds will be light and waves generally a foot or less into early
next week.


Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Although winds will be light, maximum temperature and minimum
relative humidity forecasts will be a bit challenging Sunday and
Monday. Forecast models tend to struggle with handling atmospheric
moisture in the low levels as mixing heights steadily grow from
day to day. Monday especially could end up substantially drier
and warmer than what is currently forecast.


Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Lowland flooding near riverbanks will be ongoing over the next
several days as water from last weekend`s mixed precipitation event
moves through the river basins. Since no heavy rain events are
anticipated in the next week, rivers will gradually crest then
subside with only nuisance level impacts.




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