000
FXUS63 KDVN 231117
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
617 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cut off upper level low slowly lumbered south of the area this
morning. A surface low was centered overall western Tennessee.
This system was producing rain across southern IL and MO. Clouds
associated with this system kept the area warmer tonight. This
system as it lumbers to the east, will drive the short term
forecast`s weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Two main forecast concerns with the short term The first are
temperatures and the other dewpoints and possible hazardous fire
weather conditions. Little change in the set up today compared to
yesterday. Easterly H85 flow is weak with little to no advection.
As a result, temperatures will likely mimic yesterday`s. We mixed
to H85 on the 00z Monday sounding,. So mixed down the NAM from H85
to get today`s highs. Even though there are clouds around, think
that 70 won`t be difficult across the area.

Dewpoints are a difficult forecast today. The easterly flow has
kept the air drier. With mixing, dewpoints will drop today. Used
consshort to start with, then did a little tweaking. With the
fuels starting to green and a winds lighter today, think there
will be less of a fire danger threat than Sunday. Overall, today
will be a gorgeous day across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Long term looks to be quiet with the exception of precipitation
associated with a cold front on Thursday. Current timing of this
front looks to be in the afternoon Thursday. Indications are that
precip will be post frontal and caused by an elevated fgen wing.
Model soundings show little to no CAPE and the CAPE that does
exist does not coincide with the charge separation level to
produce lightning. As a result, think that the precipitation will
likely be rain.

Otherwise, temperatures continue to be warm in the long term.
Late in the week, after the cold front, highs will be in the 50s
again. This weekend could be a great weekend as well with sun and
warm temperatures. Believe we will start to the see area green up
this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period with little expected
impacts to the TAF sites.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs