000
FXUS63 KDVN 300522
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Low pressure was located in the Central and Northern Plains with
high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This has
resulted in dry and warm weather in the Midwest with early
afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 F locally. It
is a bit more humid than yesterday as dewpoints have climbed into
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Quiet weather is expected tonight with lows in the 60s and continued
dry conditions. Heading into Thursday, it will be hot and breezy
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and southerly winds gusting
between 20 to 30 mph. A front will sag southward into the area
late at night, posing a risk for scattered showers and storms
mainly after midnight. At this time, no severe weather is
anticipated due to weak deep layer shear and only modest
instability.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Friday

The weak cold front will gradually sink southward through the
forecast area, with showers and storms mostly confined to
locations south of I-80 by the late morning and afternoon; most of
the activity could shift south of the entire area by mid/late
afternoon. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

Typical early July weather is expected for the holiday weekend with
highs in the mid/upper 80s. Comfortable humidity is forecast
Saturday with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, then an uptick in
low-level moisture is forecast for Sunday as dewpoints reach the
mid/upper 60s close to 70 F. There are periodic chances for
showers and storms, but both the overall chances and areal
coverage are expected to be low.

Fourth of July On

Increasing humidity is anticipated on Monday as southerly winds
advect 70+ F dewpoints into portions of eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois. This more humid air mass will come with
chances for scattered showers and storms; however, the details
regarding timing, coverage, and severity are uncertain this far
out.

There is plenty of forecast uncertainty on temperatures and storm
chances by next Tuesday and Wednesday due to model differences on
500mb ridge axis placement and the potential for a backdoor cold
front to edge in from the northeast. The EC is favoring the
cooler and wetter scenario with the ridge axis off to our west
over the Central Plains, while the GFS is warmer being further
east with the ridge axis and holding the MCS track over the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high clouds move
into the area ahead of cold front late in the period. Gusty winds
will persist through the period. Added a prob30 for storms at DBQ
for late as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

The Climate Prediction Center has above normal temperatures favored
over the Upper Mississippi Valley from July 6th - 12th, and above
normal precipitation is slightly favored during this time.
Additionally, there is a moderate risk for excessive heat across
the far southern portion of the outlook area from July 7th - 10th,
with a slight risk elsewhere.

The ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean 500mb height anomalies show an
expanding upper ridge over the Central U.S. early in the
aforementioned period, and then potentially retrograding westward
late in the period. If the forecast strength and placement of the
upper ridge remains consistent, this will be a time to watch for
potential heat headlines as a very humid air mass overspreads the
region. It is too early to know exactly how long the heat will
persist and how severe it will become, so it is important to keep
up with the latest forecasts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Gibbs
CLIMATE...Uttech