000
FXUS63 KDVN 011932
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
232 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Key Messages:

1.  Hot temperatures will continue into Friday.

2. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible late
morning through the afternoon on Friday.

Discussion:

Diurnally driven scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
slowly diminish this evening with the loss of instability. The more
widespread coverage is forecast across northwest Illinois into this
evening.  Winds aloft are weak with deep layer shear of 5 to 10
knots will result in very low severe potential. Lightning, brief
heavy downpours, and wind gusts up to 40 MPH will be the main
threats. Quiet weather can be expected overnight with low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday will be similar to the last few days. It will be sunny to
start with high temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s
once again. Expect coverage to be a little larger than today as
synoptic models show some vorticity and lift drifting northwestward
across the area during peak heating. Shear will still be weak with
severe weather not expected. Coverage will again be limited
though with most locations remaining dry. The slow storm motion
though will result in 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain if you happen to
be under a slow moving stronger storm.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures continue through the period with very
low chances of rain.

Discussion:

The 500 MB pattern will shift slightly westward Friday night from
northern Minnesota into the Northern Plains with the blocking
pattern across the CONUS continuing through into next week. High
temperatures Saturday through Monday will range from the upper 80s
to mid 90s and low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. There is
still the potential for a backdoor cold front to move into the
area Monday afternoon into Monday night. That will bring in
slightly lower dewpoint air into the region Monday into Monday
night. This will also bring slight chances for showers and storms
to the area Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to
be slightly cooler Tuesday through Wednesday with highs in the
lower to mid 80s and low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon into the early evening. Placed tempo groups at all
taf sites with scattered showers on radar with the potential for
MVFR visibilities in the strongest showers. Ceilings are forecast
to remain above 3 kft. The confidence in a thunderstorm impacting
a TAF site is low so they were left out of the TAFs for now.
Scattered convection should continue through the afternoon.
Convection will diminish after 00 UTC with light and variable
winds overnight. On Friday, expect another round of scattered
showers and storms to develop across the area late morning into
the early afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins