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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211020
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 AM MST Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue for the start of the
upcoming week. Cooler, more unsettled conditions look to return by
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday...Zonal flow with weak mid-level
moisture will keep warm temperatures, occasional high-clouds, and
typical afternoon breezes in the forecast through the first few
days of the upcoming week.

Wednesday through Saturday...A closed-low over the Pacific begins to
make it`s approach by the middle of next week. As it draws closer,
heights begin to fall across Arizona and temperatures follow suit,
with afternoon highs falling by 20-30 deg F by the end of the week.

Southwesterly winds also look to be a bit more breezy during the
afternoons, but gusts are largely expected to remain under 20-30
mph. Overall moisture with the system looks to be limited and mainly
concentrated in the mid-levels. Thus, a couple high-based showers
and possibly a thunderstorm look probable for Thursday. Brief gusty,
erratic winds will be possible with any stronger shower, given the
low-level dry air. That being said, the vast majority of the area
will remain dry.

The only exception to the above looks to be Saturday, as a secondary
more powerful trough moves into the southwest. Much stronger
southwest winds look possible during the afternoon on Saturday as
the trough approaches. Moisture also looks to be a bit more plentiful
with this second system, however amounts will likely still be
minimal.


&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 21/06Z through Monday 22/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Expect light and variable winds at 5-15 kts through
the period.

OUTLOOK...Monday 22/06Z through Wednesday 24/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm and dry conditions both
days. Light and variable winds Sunday becoming southwest 15 to 25
mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry and turning cooler each day.
Gusty southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40
mph each day. A slight chance of showers arrives Thursday. Wetting
rains are not likely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff