Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 191142 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
642 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings range from MVFR at ALI/CRP to VFR at VCT/LRD early this
morning. Anticipate a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings as the front moves
through South Texas. A few showers may accompany the front and
have kept VCSH remarks in the taf at ALI/LRD. Northeast winds will
pick up later this morning towards midday with gusts between 20
and 25 knots during the afternoon. Winds will subside to less than
10 knots later this afternoon and early evening. VFR conditions
should persist for the remainder of the taf period, but low clouds
could approach LRD early Friday morning. but confidence is not
high enough to mention at this point. Some convection may approach
LRD as well late in the period, but will not include in the forecast
just yet.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 453 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Frontal boundary will slowly move through South Texas early this
morning. However, shower activity has been quite limited thus far
but hi-res guidance continues to show isolated shower activity
over southern parts of the area today. Will keep 20 pops in the
forecast, mainly along and south of Highway 44. Skies will improve
today from the northeast to the southwest as drier air filters
into South Texas, although locations along the Rio Grande remain
mostly cloudy. High temperatures today will be in the middle to
upper 70s inland with low 70s along the immediate coast.

Deeper moisture will reside tonight along the Rio Grande Plains as
an upper level disturbance moves out of the Big Bend region. Some
showers and thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain of
Mexico and approach the international border. Isolated convection
could impact Webb and LaSalle counties, but confidence is not
too high this will occur and will limit pops to only 20 percent.

Upper level wave will push eastward across Central and South
Texas on Friday. Moisture remains sufficient over the western
parts of the area to support low end chances of showers and
storms. Slightly drier air over the Coastal Bend into the
Victoria Crossroads may limit chances for rain. Mostly cloudy
conditions will prevail on Friday with highs in the 70s to low
80s out west.

MARINE...

Moderate to strong northeast winds will develop today over the
Middle Texas Coastal Waters behind a cold front. Winds will be
around 20 knots over the bays and between 20 and 25 knots over the
Gulf Waters. A small craft advisory is in effect from 7AM to 1 PM,
but winds will then diminish later on this afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...

The upper level low over the Four Corners region will move east
across the state over the weekend, continuing to bring chances for
showers and storms across the region.  Ahead of this system moisture
will increase across South Texas, with precipitable water values
Friday night of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, increasing to 1.6 to 1.8 inches
on Saturday.  Anticipate mainly isolated showers and storms to
develop on Friday night as weak impulses eject across the region
ahead of the main upper level low. Rain chances will increase on
Saturday as the upper level system sweeps across northern Texas and
Oklahoma.  Higher rain chances remain to the north and east of our
area, as the upper level jet will be positioned in a less favorable
position over South Texas. The threat for any strong to severe
storms is looking more marginal for the area given the marginal
CAPE. However, an isolated strong storm cannot be entirely ruled out
during the day on Saturday given the better shear.  Still anticipate
mainly scattered convection to develop across the region on Saturday,
with locally highest PoPs over the Victoria Crossroads and northern
Coastal Bend. PoPs will begin decreasing Saturday evening into
Saturday night as the upper level trough axis shifts east of the
region. The associated cold front remains progged to push through
the region early Sunday morning. Additional drying and clearing
will occur on Sunday behind this front. A major drop in daytime
temperatures will not occur, and post fropa will be better felt in
the overnight lows. Onshore flow will eventually return Monday
night into Tuesday while surface high pressure shifts to the east
and upper level ridging builds overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  61  77  68  80  /  10  10  10  20  40
Victoria          77  54  75  62  79  /   0  10  10  20  60
Laredo            78  63  82  68  88  /  20  20  20  20  20
Alice             79  59  79  66  82  /  20  10  10  20  40
Rockport          75  63  75  69  78  /  10  10  10  20  50
Cotulla           79  58  80  65  84  /  10  10  20  30  40
Kingsville        79  60  79  67  82  /  20  10  10  20  40
Navy Corpus       75  66  75  70  78  /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION


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