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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232335
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
635 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR across West Central Texas tonight and Tuesday. Low
level southerly flow will return Tuesday with surface wind gusts
of around 20 knots by 15Z.  21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Generally quiet weather expected through tomorrow afternoon.
Tonight, light winds will become southerly and increase to 10 to
15 mph by tomorrow morning. This will result in increasing
moisture, and warmer temperatures for tonight`s lows as compared
to the last couple nights. Expect morning temperatures to be in
the 50s for the most part. Tuesday, temperatures will be warmer
across the area. Southerly winds and ample sunshine will allow
temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. A cold front
will move into areas north of I-20 late in the day, turning winds
to the northeast. With this front there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms affecting locations west of a Haskell to Sweetwater
line during the evening hours, but the bulk of our precipitation
chances will be during the overnight hours.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

A cold front will slowly move through West Central Texas Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to develop along the front across the South Plains/Big Country
Tuesday evening, then slowly move south and east through the
overnight hours. Modest instability along with 0-6 KM bulk shear
values of 30-40 knots may yield a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. The activity is forecast to slowly spread south and
east Wednesday morning, with the majority of the convection shifting
south of the area by late Wednesday afternoon. Extensive cloud cover
along with cold air advection during the day on Wednesday will make
for an unseasonably cool day. Highs will range from the upper 50s
across the Big Country to near 70 across our southeast counties.
Cold temperatures are forecast Thursday morning, with lows in the
low to mid 40s. Warmer temperatures are anticipated Thursday, with
highs getting back into the mid to upper 70s. The next cold front is
forecast to move through the region late Thursday into Friday
morning, reinforcing the mild conditions. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly across the
Big Country. Highs Friday through the weekend will generally be in
the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

Model differences arise on the handling of the next upper level
trough that will approach West Central Texas from the west. The GFS
continues to show a potent upper level trough approaching the
forecast area during the first part of next week, resulting in good
rain chances. The ECMWF is slower and farther west with this
feature. For now, have kept PoPs in the slight chance category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  86  51  58 /   0  10  60  60
San Angelo  56  91  56  64 /   0   5  40  50
Junction  54  92  58  69 /   0   0  20  60
Brownwood  52  87  55  65 /   0   5  40  50
Sweetwater  55  88  48  57 /   0  10  60  60
Ozona       57  89  57  65 /   0   5  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$